{"id":52508,"date":"2017-12-15T01:54:21","date_gmt":"2017-12-14T22:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=52508"},"modified":"2018-01-07T01:09:34","modified_gmt":"2018-01-06T22:09:34","slug":"cetin-unsalan-buyuyen-aciga-nester-vurun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-buyuyen-aciga-nester-vurun\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; B\u00fcy\u00fcyen a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ne\u015fter vurun"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Herkes istihdam meselesine tak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Hatta \u015fu an TOBB \u00fcyelerinden art\u0131 2 istihdam istendi. Bir tak\u0131m te\u015fviklerden de s\u00f6z edildi. Oysa bence as\u0131l konu\u015fulmas\u0131 gereken, \u015firketlerin mevcut istihdam\u0131 elde tutup tutamayacaklar\u0131&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2889000784\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Elbette iyi niyetli yakla\u015f\u0131m sergilersek bu talep T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye nefes ald\u0131r\u0131r. Fakat acaba 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r b\u0131rak\u0131n yeni istihdam yaratmay\u0131, mevcutlar i\u00e7in s\u00fcmen alt\u0131 ajandas\u0131nda i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131 konu\u015fuyor mu, konu\u015fmuyor mu?<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6deme yapma ve alma problemleri da\u011f gibi birikirken, y\u00fckselen maliyetler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daralan i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f pazar ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle birlikte meseleyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde, \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131na zam yapamad\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan zamlar\u0131n da y\u00fcksek vadelerden ve bundan kaynaklanan faiz oranlar\u0131ndan olu\u015ftu\u011funu tahmin etmek g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Peki neden b\u00f6yle bir kayg\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yorum? Kas\u0131m 2017 sonu itibariyle a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekim ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda 61 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir ger\u00e7ek g\u00f6zleniyor. Bu ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 9 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 32,1\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Fakat \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc de olsa bu rakam buzda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini inceledi\u011finizde \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc olan iki madde var. Bunlardan birincisi mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ithalatta miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,8\u2019lik daralma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi. Bu i\u00e7 piyasada s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n ve durgunlu\u011fun tahmin edildi\u011finden b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci ve \u00f6zellikle alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek istedi\u011fim ba\u015fl\u0131k ise de\u011fer baz\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan rakamlar. Ama ona gelmeden \u00f6nce adetsel rakamlara bakal\u0131m. Ekim\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re miktar baz\u0131nda, ihracattaki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 5,8, ithalattaki art\u0131\u015f ise y\u00fczde 15,7\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ok detaylara girmez de d\u00fcz mant\u0131k anlamland\u0131r\u0131rsak, satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z mal\u0131n 2,5 kat\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etmi\u015fiz. Lakin bundan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlike de\u011fer baz\u0131ndaki oranlar. Ekim 2017\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re ihracat birim de\u011feri y\u00fczde 2,9 y\u00fckselirken, ithalatta bu oran y\u00fczde 8 art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Yani bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re gelirimizi 3 puan, giderimizi 8 puan artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00e7ok ciddi bir sermaye erimesi, \u00f6deme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2895773656\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in iyimser rakamlar\u0131na dayan\u0131p bu kadar istatistikle ne anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m? \u00dcretirken de, \u00fcretti\u011fimizi yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na satarken de zarar ediyoruz. Sat\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z artt\u0131k\u00e7a, zarar\u0131m\u0131z da b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Yani i\u015fletmelerimiz gizli iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor. \u0130\u015fte bu, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndan da daha tehlikeli ve hayati bir durum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcretim yap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden bunun \u00fcstesinden gelemeyiz. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6yledi\u011fimizde tak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f plak muamelesi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 envanter ihtiyac\u0131 bu nedenle \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7eriden sa\u011flama olana\u011f\u0131n varken, ithal ediyorsan, kazan\u00e7 elde edemedi\u011fin gibi, i\u015fletmelerinin bat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6nleyemezsin. Bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa acil ne\u015fter vurulmazsa, b\u0131rak\u0131n art\u0131 2 istihdam\u0131, sokaklardaki i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 patlar.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3582746225\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkes istihdam meselesine tak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Hatta \u015fu an TOBB \u00fcyelerinden art\u0131 2 istihdam istendi. Bir tak\u0131m te\u015fviklerden de s\u00f6z edildi. Oysa bence as\u0131l konu\u015fulmas\u0131 gereken,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-52508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52508\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}