{"id":5230,"date":"2011-09-17T14:25:48","date_gmt":"2011-09-17T11:25:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5230"},"modified":"2011-09-17T14:25:59","modified_gmt":"2011-09-17T11:25:59","slug":"bir-temel-sorun-issizlikte-katilik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bir-temel-sorun-issizlikte-katilik\/","title":{"rendered":"Bir Temel Sorun: \u0130\u015fsizlikte Kat\u0131l\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131mdaki art\u0131\u015f, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine inmesini bir miktar engellemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-750473929\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn haziran ay\u0131na ait i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc istatistikleri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Toplam i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda krizin etkisi bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce t\u00fcm\u00fcyle ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kriz \u00f6ncesinde (2006\u2019da ve 2007\u2019de) ortalama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10,2 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 birka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r y\u00fczde 10\u2019un biraz \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Haziranda da \u00f6yle oldu: Y\u00fczde 10,3. Bir anlamda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 dolaylar\u0131ndaki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011fa geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumday\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 artt\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nToplam i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na bir de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da dikkate alarak bakmak gerekiyor. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 son y\u0131llarda artt\u0131; \u015fu anda 2006 ve 2007 ortalamas\u0131na k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 puan daha fazla. \u015eu anlama geliyor: \u00c7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfusa oranla daha fazla insan son y\u0131llarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak istemi\u015f. Bu fazlal\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 sabit kalm\u0131\u015f. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, kriz \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn daha fazla bir k\u0131sm\u0131na i\u015f bulabilmi\u015fiz, daha fazla istihdam yaratm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. \u015e\u00f6yle de ifade edilebilir: \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 kriz \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeyinde olsayd\u0131, \u015fimdi i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacakt\u0131. Daha fazla istihdam yaratmak elbette sevinilecek bir \u015fey. Ancak iki unsur bu sevinci bir miktar t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Birincisi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131, son y\u0131llarda artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n halen \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde: Y\u00fczde 50. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerde \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek. Bizdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn nedeni, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n erkeklere g\u00f6re \u00e7ok da az kat\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131. Bu oran biraz daha y\u00fckselir ve T\u00fcrkiye bu a\u00e7\u0131dan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda normalle\u015fme yoluna girerse, zaten y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyinde kat\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z daha da artacak demektir. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n krizlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011finde dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim.<br \/>\n\u0130kinci t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyici unsur, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik verilerine bak\u0131nca ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 mevsimlik hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131yor. Bu nedenle 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara bakay\u0131m. Son on iki ay\u0131n ortalama toplam i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 2006 ve 2007 ortalamalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla sadece 0.5 puan daha y\u00fcksek. Oysa tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n son 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 13,6 d\u00fczeyinde. 2006 ve 2007 ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 12.6 d\u00fczeyinde. Yani, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda tam olarak kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc belirtmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131mdaki art\u0131\u015f, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine inmesini bir miktar engellemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim verileri Tablo 1\u2019de veriyorum. 2005-2010 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in tabloda yer alan veriler y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama de\u011ferleri, 2011 Haziran i\u00e7in olanlar ise son on iki ay\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin temel sorunlar\u0131ndan biri de b\u00f6ylelikle ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: \u2018Normal\u2019 d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00fczde 10 dolaylar\u0131nda kat\u0131la\u015fan bir toplam i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z var; y\u00fcksek bir oran. \u00dcstelik i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma biraz daha y\u00fckselse \u2018normal\u2019 d\u00f6nemlerdeki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z daha da y\u00fcksek olacak.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/09\/16\/fft16_mf813787.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131mdaki art\u0131\u015f, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine inmesini bir miktar engellemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. D\u00fcn haziran ay\u0131na ait i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc istatistikleri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Toplam i\u015fsizlik&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}