{"id":5216,"date":"2011-09-16T16:00:54","date_gmt":"2011-09-16T13:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5216"},"modified":"2011-09-16T17:08:00","modified_gmt":"2011-09-16T14:08:00","slug":"yunanistan-batarsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yunanistan-batarsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Yunanistan Batarsa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131na gelindi. Yunanistan t\u00fcm u\u011fra\u015flara ra\u011fmen kurtar\u0131lam\u0131yor. Ekim ay\u0131nda paras\u0131n\u0131n bitece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan \u00fclke, bundan sonra hem kendisi hem de b\u00f6lgesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bombal\u0131 paket \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-352905812\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00f6ylesi bir bat\u0131\u015f\u0131n hem siyasal, hem de ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Siyasal olarak k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan Yunanistan\u2019a veya durumunu kullanarak onun ad\u0131na her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131rabilirler. \u00d6zel g\u00fcvenlik \u015firketlerinin d\u00fcnyada gezerek ter\u00f6r sa\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te, 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fimiz T\u00fcrkiye-Yunanistan-\u0130ran hatt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131rabilmesi i\u00e7in en dramatik noktaya gelindi.<\/p>\n<p>Birileri Akdeniz\u2019de yeni senaryolar \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ise Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n batmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 anlamlar\u0131 var. \u00d6ncelikle Avrupa ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan psikolojik s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6zelli\u011fi bulunuyor. Burada ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak bir iflas ya da temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme, arka arkaya \u0130talya, \u0130spanya, Portekiz gibi \u00fclkelerin tetiklenmesine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00e7aresizli\u011fine \u015fahit oluyoruz. Nitekim \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019den tahvillerini almas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmesi de bunun g\u00f6stergesi say\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomisi Fransa ve Almanya ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131 kolonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fakat ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak maliyeti, iki \u00fclkenin kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi bunu kendi kamuoylar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 kolay de\u011fil. Her iki \u00fclkenin de bat\u0131k durumdaki Yunanistan devlet tahvillerinin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne sahip oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de ortaya koydu\u011funuzda sorunun boyutu b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Zaten bug\u00fcne dek, her \u015feye ra\u011fmen Yunanistan\u2019a verilen deste\u011fin de temelinde yatan nedenlerden biri bu. Bir di\u011feri de mal\u00fbm domino etkisi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu resim ortadayken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin dersini iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Ekonominin patronu Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131 Ali Babacan, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131r olundu\u011funu s\u00f6ylese de meseleye ekopolitik a\u00e7\u0131dan bakmad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k. Sadece mali politikalarla bu analizi sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Nitekim di\u011fer bakanlar Zafer \u00c7a\u011flayan ve Nihat Erg\u00fcn\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan geli\u015fmelerin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 okunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucunu \u00e7\u0131karmak \u00e7ok m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Halen sadece T\u00fcrkiye kriz ya\u015f\u0131yormu\u015f\u00e7as\u0131na hareket ediyorlar ve zaten \u00f6yle bir krizi de kabul etmiyorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2610645874\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Oysa Yunanistan batarsa, bu \u00f6ncelikle Avrupa ekonomilerini oldu\u011fundan daha fazla olumsuz etkileyecektir. Bu ilk planda ihracata fren yapt\u0131r\u0131r. \u0130kinci planda ise daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk s\u00f6z konusu\u2026 Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n devlet tahvilleri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Almanya ve Fransa\u2019da ama, bunlar\u0131n da kasalar\u0131nda durdu\u011funu sanm\u0131yorum. Bu tahviller hangi alanlarda teminat olarak g\u00f6sterildi? Cevaba muhta\u00e7 tek kritik soru bu de\u011fil. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ne oranda riskli \u00fclkelere ait devlet tahvili bulunuyor? Bu \u00fclkelere ait bankalar\u0131n b\u00fcnyelerinde bat\u0131k \u00fclkelere ait tahviller var m\u0131? D\u00f6viz rezervlerimizin ne miktar\u0131 bunlarda tutuluyor?<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00f6ylesi suallerin yan\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n da a\u00e7\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fart\u2026 Yani olas\u0131 bir Yunanistan bat\u0131\u015f\u0131, sadece pazarlar\u0131 ve ihracat\u0131 de\u011fil, ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak bizim ekonomimizi, bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc de tehdit etmektedir. Kredilerin erken \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lmas\u0131 riskini hat\u0131rlat\u0131r\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer ekonomi y\u00f6netimi kayna\u011f\u0131 belirsiz 10,6 milyar dolara g\u00fcveniyorsa, \u015fimdiden uyaray\u0131m, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak hasar\u0131 bu rakam kar\u015f\u0131lamaz.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlara ilaveten Akdeniz\u2019deki m\u00fccadele de cabas\u0131\u2026 Bilhassa T\u00fcrkiye-\u0130srail gerilimi oyununda as\u0131l hedefin do\u011falgaz ve petrol havzalar\u0131na sahip Akdeniz\u2019deki rekabetin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funu bilmemiz laz\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2868770737\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bas\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bu, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir rejim ihrac\u0131 da de\u011fildir. \u00d6ncelikle bu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin milli politikas\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015fer. Ama yine de ihracatta \u0131srar ediliyorsa, sunulan rejim Bak\u00fc-Tiflis-Ceyhan boru hatt\u0131ndaki petrol ne kadar bize aitse, Kuzey Afrika ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya sunulan rejim de o kadar bize ait.<\/p>\n<p>Bilhassa \u0130srail ile sahneye konulan ve K\u0131br\u0131s merkezli hale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini tahmin etti\u011fim bu tiyatronun ama\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri de, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeden AB\u2019yi saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakma hedefidir. Peki AB ne yapacak? Son bir kozu kald\u0131. B\u00f6lgede hakimiyet kurmak i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yan\u0131na \u00e7ekmeyi deneyebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu a\u015famada da \u00e7ok yak\u0131nda AB\u2019den tam \u00fcyelik i\u00e7in ad\u0131m at\u0131l\u0131rsa \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmaz. Fakat daha tehlikeli olan, y\u0131llar\u0131n AB sevdas\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu teklife atlamas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00dclkeyi Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n refah\u0131na de\u011fil, borcuna ortak edecek bu at\u0131l\u0131m, bizdeki felaketin de tetikleyicisi olur.<\/p>\n<p>Bir s\u00fcre daha s\u0131cak para gelir, biraz daha bor\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r\u0131z ve ihale bize kald\u0131ktan sonra tan\u0131d\u0131k bir ziyaret\u00e7i kap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7alar. D\u00fcyun-u Umumiye\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi tarihi \u00f6nyarg\u0131larla zil tak\u0131p oynayanlar, kendisine tekrar sorsun. Yunanistan batarsa ne olur?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131na gelindi. Yunanistan t\u00fcm u\u011fra\u015flara ra\u011fmen kurtar\u0131lam\u0131yor. Ekim ay\u0131nda paras\u0131n\u0131n bitece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan \u00fclke, bundan sonra hem kendisi hem de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}