{"id":52039,"date":"2017-11-13T18:59:30","date_gmt":"2017-11-13T15:59:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=52039"},"modified":"2017-11-13T18:59:30","modified_gmt":"2017-11-13T15:59:30","slug":"cetin-unsalan-ekonomide-ders-calismamanin-agir-bedeli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-ekonomide-ders-calismamanin-agir-bedeli\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Ekonomide ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaman\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bedeli"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Reklamlar\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019\u0131 40 milyar dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. E\u011fer y\u00fckseli\u015f bu do\u011frultuda devam ederse, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonominin do\u011fal bir sonucu olu\u011funu ve normal oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemeye ba\u015flayacaklard\u0131r.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3317311626\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Diyeceksiniz ki, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekle \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Bunun \u00e7ok \u00f6nemi yok. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ondan da \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131n sorun de\u011fil, olumlu bir g\u00f6sterge oldu\u011funu anlat\u0131yorlard\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de reel sekt\u00f6r ihracat yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda bu problem ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Zira \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik asla ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inanm\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclkedeki cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu besleyen temel fakt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015f ticaret yap\u0131m\u0131zdaki sakatl\u0131k. Burada bir y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu\u011fu anda, makas a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Fakat bunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve \u00fcreticiye bedeli a\u011f\u0131r oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hi\u00e7 yoruma, niyete bakmadan rakamlarla konu\u015fal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye en son cari a\u00e7\u0131kta 40 milyar dolar\u0131 ne zaman g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc? 2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131nda\u2026 Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 40 milyar 375 milyon dolar olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>2017 y\u0131l\u0131na geldi\u011fimizde a\u00e7\u0131k, 39 milyar 267 milyon dolar. Orta noktay\u0131 40 milyar dolar olarak ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda nas\u0131l bir finansman maliyeti ve bedel ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok daha net ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n<p>2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131nda dolar \/ TL kuru 1,25\u2026 Cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye maliyeti ise 50 milyar TL. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle dolar \/ TL kuru 3,87 ve \u00fclkeye maliyeti 154 milyar 800 milyon TL. Eski parayla 154 katrilyon TL.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar basmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re, en son 40 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131ktan bu yana T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 maliyeti bulunuyor. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda firmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ve ekonomimizin \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 daha \u00e7ok fakirle\u015fti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Analizi yaparken sadece bu a\u00e7\u0131dan da bakmamak gerekir. Petrol varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te bire d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne, ihracatta birim karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na, turizm gelirlerinin en iyi ihtimalle geriledi\u011fine, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i anlamda da para b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat etmek gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4082573586\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 daha k\u00fcresel krizin belirtilerinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ama b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7ak\u0131lman\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve parasal geni\u015flemenin sonlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir foto\u011fraf veriyor. T\u00fcrkiye ihracatta darbeyi bir sene sonra, yani 2009\u2019da ya\u015fad\u0131. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z o tarihte bizler te\u011fet tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na bile ba\u015flamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn ise parasal geni\u015fleme sonland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015fken, ABD faiz artt\u0131r\u0131p, bilan\u00e7oyu daraltma s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015fken, AB tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, d\u00fcnyada korumac\u0131l\u0131k e\u011filimi artarken, jeopolitik riskler y\u00fckselmi\u015f, kom\u015fular\u0131m\u0131zla ticaret yapamaz hale gelmi\u015fken, en k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00fclke olarak ilan edilmi\u015fken \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 maliyetle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Yani 2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 1 dolar\u0131 ile, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 1 dolar\u0131 aras\u0131nda anormal bir maliyet ve eri\u015filebilirlik fark\u0131 bulunuyor. Bu ne mi? Ekonomide ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaman\u0131n ve s\u00fcrekli kendini kand\u0131rman\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bedeli.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-147323422\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reklamlar\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019\u0131 40 milyar dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. E\u011fer y\u00fckseli\u015f bu do\u011frultuda devam ederse, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonominin do\u011fal bir sonucu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-52039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52039\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}