{"id":51876,"date":"2017-11-01T22:54:46","date_gmt":"2017-11-01T19:54:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51876"},"modified":"2017-11-01T22:54:46","modified_gmt":"2017-11-01T19:54:46","slug":"cetin-unsalan-enflasyon-98-ne-demek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-enflasyon-98-ne-demek\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Enflasyon 9,8 ne demek?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re y\u0131lsonu enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 8,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 9,8\u2019e revize edildi. \u00c7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckse de, sapman\u0131n y\u00fczde 12 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatmak gerekiyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1807640500\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca bu bir ortalama de\u011fer. Yine raporda, bu oran aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tavan noktas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10,3 olabilece\u011fine de vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Yine bu hedeflemelerin iyimserlik i\u00e7erisinde yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki her \u015fey bir yana, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc y\u00fczde 9,8\u2019lik orana y\u00fckseltmek ne anlama geliyor? \u00d6ncelikle faizlerde siyaset\u00e7ilerin beklentisinin aksine d\u00fc\u015fme olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi. Zira ke\u015fke d\u00fc\u015fse temennimi belirttikten sonra, \u0131srarla tersi s\u00f6ylense de do\u011frusunu hat\u0131rlataca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Faizler y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in enflasyon olmaz. Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in faizler artar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon bir faiz maliyetidir. Bu konudaki kavgan\u0131n ve \u0131srar\u0131n kesilmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, maliyet hesaplamalar\u0131nda bunun yarataca\u011f\u0131 gerilimi de dikkate almak \u015fart.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyonda beklentinin y\u00fckseltilmesi ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00f6vizde, bilhassa dolarda da beklendi\u011fi gibi bir gev\u015feme olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ifadesidir. Biliyoruz ki artan enflasyonun i\u00e7erisinde dolar maliyetinin rol\u00fc, az\u0131msanacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fil. K\u0131sa vadede 200 milyar dolar bulamayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, \u00f6demeler nedeniyle dolar talebi de olaca\u011f\u0131ndan bu trend devam edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca FED ya da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 gibi yan fakt\u00f6rlerle artacak dolar maliyetinin, enflasyonun \u00fczerinde ikinci bir maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hat\u0131rlatmak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon raporunun anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir di\u011fer konu ise, zam furyas\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi. Vatanda\u015f \u0131srarla zam yapan\u0131n kasap ya da pompac\u0131 oldu\u011funu zannetse de, iktidar cebimizden para \u00e7ekme arzusunu artt\u0131rarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. \u00dcstelik bunlar\u0131 da gelir kayg\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeksizin, y\u00fcksek ihtimalle yine dolayl\u0131 vergiler \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek.<\/p>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer ba\u015fl\u0131k ise piyasalardaki daralma ve t\u00fcketicinin gerek nakdi, gerekse kredi d\u00fczeyinde al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc kalmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, artan \u00fcretici maliyetlerin piyasadaki fiyatlar\u0131n \u00fczerine yans\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131nda zorluk ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3515705558\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu da reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, yani \u00fcretici kesimin sermaye erimesini h\u0131zland\u0131racak bir sorun olarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze gelecektir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ile t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki makas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Elbette i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n da buna ilave olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmadan.<\/p>\n<p>2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda, bir sonraki y\u0131l se\u00e7im olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve elde avu\u00e7ta ne varsa, hesaps\u0131zca ortaya d\u00f6k\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz, buradan da ekstra bir enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 gelme ihtimali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131saca \u015fu hedef sapmas\u0131, yar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnden daha zor olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131 azaltmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini net bir bi\u00e7imde anlat\u0131yor. 2018 ve 2019\u2019a ait d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimli beklenti ise tam bir hayal \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc. Ama o da bize bir \u015fey anlat\u0131yor: Merkez, halen Be\u015ftepe\u2019den korkuyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1880148990\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re y\u0131lsonu enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 8,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 9,8\u2019e revize edildi. \u00c7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckse de,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-51876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51876\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}