{"id":51732,"date":"2017-10-20T17:14:51","date_gmt":"2017-10-20T14:14:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51732"},"modified":"2017-10-20T17:49:49","modified_gmt":"2017-10-20T14:49:49","slug":"erol-gurcan-yeni-hafta-gundemi-ve-borsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-yeni-hafta-gundemi-ve-borsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Yeni Hafta G\u00fcndemi ve Borsa"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Yeni haftada yurti\u00e7i ekonomi g\u00fcndeminin en \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB)\u2019n\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n 7. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak.<\/h2>\n<p>Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde enflasyonda man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek rakamlar ile beklentilerde g\u00f6zlenen bozulmaya ek olarak dolar\/TL\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen sert hareketlerin etkisiyle TCMB\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131ya kadar kendine bir manevra alan\u0131 olu\u015fturmak amac\u0131yla Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi Bor\u00e7 Verme faizinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteydik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4212346553\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ancak, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde dolar\/TL\u2019nin 3.70 TL alt\u0131ndaki seyrini korumas\u0131, gelecek aylarda baz etkisi kaynakl\u0131 olarak enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin beklenmesi ve TCMB\u2019nin ortalama fonlama faizinin % 12 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etmesi gibi geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak, ana beklentimizin, gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da faizlerde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidilmemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu ifade edelim. Toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde kur taraf\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir miktar artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunmakla birlikte, karar ile birlikte yay\u0131nlanacak olan metinde yer alacak ifadelerin bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ya da ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkiye sahip olabilece\u011fini,\u00a0 bundan dolay\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle planl\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 8\u2019e inen TCMB y\u0131l\u0131n son PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 14 Aral\u0131k tarihinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. Pazartesi ekim ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ekim ay\u0131 \u0130malat Sanayi Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131 ve Reel Kesim G\u00fcven Endeksi haftal\u0131k ekonomi takviminde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan di\u011fer veriler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir. Ancak, \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sapma g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik\u00e7e bu verilerin piyasa \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok kal\u0131c\u0131 bir etki b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, siyasi-jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131, son haftalarda oldu\u011fu gibi, zaman zaman ekonomi g\u00fcndemini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilece\u011finden bu taraflardaki geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan takip etmeye devam etmekte de fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Paylar\u0131 Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015firketlerin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00e7eyrek finansal sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klama takvimi 20 Ekim Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc itibariyle ba\u015flad\u0131. Sanayi \u015firketleri i\u00e7in konsolide olmayan sonu\u00e7lar 30 Ekim\u2019e, konsolide sonu\u00e7lar 9 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar; bankalar i\u00e7in ise konsolide olmayan sonu\u00e7lar 9 Kas\u0131m, konsolide sonu\u00e7lar 20 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar devam a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya devam edecek. Finansal sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klama takvimi sona erene kadar borsada hisse bazl\u0131 hareketlerin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Gelecek hafta boyunca TAV Havalimanlar\u0131, T\u00fcrk Telekom, Akbank, TSKB, Turkcell, Garanti Bankas\u0131, Kardemir, Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131 finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 beklenen \u00f6nemli \u015firketler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel ekonomi takvime bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda yeni haftan\u0131n en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB)\u2019n\u0131n 26 Ekim Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi toplant\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ekonomideki toparlanma devam ederken, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde ba\u015fta ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 merkez bankac\u0131lardan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde mevcut varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. ECB\u2019nin bu haftaki toplant\u0131da mevcut varl\u0131k program\u0131n\u0131n ak\u0131betini de\u011ferlendirmesinin beklenmesi toplant\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini art\u0131rmakta. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u2019nin bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verece\u011fi mesajlar ba\u015fta euro\/dolar paritesi olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>ABD taraf\u0131nda sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ekim \u00f6nc\u00fc bile\u015fik PMI (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi); \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc eyl\u00fcl Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri ve Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131; per\u015fembe eyl\u00fcl D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi, Bekleyen Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131; cuma 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00e7eyrek Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme ilk tahmini ve ekim T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verileri izlenecek. \u00d6zellikle, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri ile cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verileri ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergeler olmas\u0131 ve dolayl\u0131 yoldan Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentileri etkileyebilecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle yak\u0131ndan takip edilmeli. Di\u011fer taraftan, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda g\u00f6rev s\u00fcreci dolacak olan Yellen\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revine devam edip etmeyece\u011fi ve hem ba\u015fkanl\u0131k hem de hali haz\u0131rda bo\u015f olan ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in konu\u015fulan adaylar \u00fczerinde bir netlik olu\u015fup olu\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 da ABD taraf\u0131nda izlenecek \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fcndem maddesi olarak not edilebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, devam eden \u015firket finansallar\u0131 ile Trump\u2019\u0131n vergi konusundaki vaatlerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini etkileyebilecek olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler de ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n seyrini etkileyebilecek di\u011fer unsurlar olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa taraf\u0131nda, pazartesi Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekim \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni ve \u0130ngiltere Sanayi Trendleri Anketi; sal\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekim \u00f6nc\u00fc Bile\u015fik PMI; \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya ekim Ifo Anketi ile \u0130ngiltere 3. \u00e7eyrek Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini, ECB karar\u0131 haricinde, haftan\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan verileri olarak s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Asya taraf\u0131nda ise 22 Ekim Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan erken Genel Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ile Japonya \u00f6nc\u00fc \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 ve hafta sonuna do\u011fru \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek eyl\u00fcl Sanayi K\u00e2rlar\u0131 verisi takip edilebilir.<\/p>\n<h3>B\u0130ST-100<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51733 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2017-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"629\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2017-1.png 629w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2017-1-300x212.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>B\u0130ST-100 endeksi \u00f6nceki hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda artan siyasi-jeopolitik risklerin etkisiyle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa psikolojik \u00f6nemi olan 100 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131n\u0131 test etmi\u015fti. Ancak, gerek \u00f6nceki hafta gerekse de son haftan\u0131n geneli itibariyle endeksin olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir duru\u015f sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bir anlamda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015ftah\u0131n korundu\u011funu i\u015faret eden bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle birlikte B\u0130ST-100 endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 ay sonra yeniden 108 \u2013 109 binli rakamlar\u0131 test etmekte. B\u00f6ylelikle, endeks, Aral\u0131k 2016 itibariyle olu\u015fan ve eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ile birlikte y\u00fckselen trendine de tekrar d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f oldu. Mevcut toparlanma e\u011filiminin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede 108.750 ve 107.500 destekleri \u00fczerindeki seyrin korunmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem arz etmekte. Bu durumda, endeksin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta yeniden 109.500 \u2013 110.000 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6nelmesi ve devam\u0131nda 110.530 seviyesindeki tarihi zirvesini yenileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenecektir. Di\u011fer taraftan, 107.000-107.500 destek b\u00f6lgesi \u00fczerinde tutulamamas\u0131 durumunda ise ilk a\u015famada 106.200 deste\u011fi ile 104.700 \u2013 105.000 destek b\u00f6lgesine kadar devam edebilecek bir d\u00fczeltme hareketi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. 20 Ekim Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc itibariyle paylar\u0131 Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015firketlere ait 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00e7eyrek finansal sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klama takviminin ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle; gelecek birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde endeksin seyrinden ziyade hisse bazl\u0131 hareketlerin bir miktar daha \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu durum kaynakl\u0131 zaman zaman g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda sert, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ise g\u00f6rece yatay-s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bantlarda hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Gelecek hafta, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi toplant\u0131lar ile Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan\u00a0 3. \u00e7eyrek ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ilk tahmini yurti\u00e7i piyasalar \u00fczerindeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Ayr\u0131ca, siyasi &#8211; jeopolitik olas\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve kur taraf\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler de endeksin seyrine etki edebilece\u011finden takip edilmeli.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3797509532\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">Yat\u0131r\u0131m Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni haftada yurti\u00e7i ekonomi g\u00fcndeminin en \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB)\u2019n\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n 7. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. Yak\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1513],"class_list":["post-51732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}