{"id":5169,"date":"2011-09-16T09:06:42","date_gmt":"2011-09-16T06:06:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5169"},"modified":"2011-09-16T09:27:56","modified_gmt":"2011-09-16T06:27:56","slug":"beklenti-kirilganligi-ve-avrupa-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/beklenti-kirilganligi-ve-avrupa-krizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Beklenti K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Avrupa Krizi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Birli\u011finin Euro alan\u0131nda sorunlar bitmiyor. B\u00f6lgede\u00a0 birden fazla ekonomik ve siyasal sorun var. Son d\u00f6nemde Euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerinin de zengin bir sorun stokuna\u00a0 sahip oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. S\u00f6zkonusu sorunlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 g\u00fcncelli\u011fi olan sorunlar. Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n on y\u0131llard\u0131r bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6zemedi\u011fi ve biriktirdi\u011fi yap\u0131sal sorunlar da\u00a0 sorun stokunun \u00f6teki par\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-312674026\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son krizlerin k\u00fcrenin merkezindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck ve zengin \u00fclkelerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Bu krizlerin ciddi bir\u00a0 bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k e\u011filimi sergiledi\u011fi de g\u00f6zleniyor. Avrupa&#8217;da zengin sorun birikimi oldu\u011fu ve son y\u0131llarda bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda dola\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 da malum. Bu parametreler Avrupa co\u011frafyas\u0131nda riskli bir ortam olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bir yandan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki krizlerin dozu ve bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yandan da Avrupa&#8217;daki sorun yo\u011funlu\u011fu ve hareketlili\u011fi Avrupa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkelerde de tedirginlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcrenin \u00f6nemli bir merkezindeki\u00a0 (AB) sorunlar\u0131n yeni bir krizi tetikleyece\u011fi ve bu krizin de \u00f6ncekiler gibi h\u0131zla \u00f6teki \u00fclkelere bula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi yayg\u0131nl\u0131k kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;dan gelecek olas\u0131 bir krizin dinami\u011finin b\u00f6lgenin yerle\u015fik yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok g\u00fcncelli\u011fi olan, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli problemlerinden t\u00fcreyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6n s\u0131rada yer alan g\u00fcncel sorun ise kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu ve kamu\u00a0 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7evrilebilirli\u011fi\u00a0 meselesi. AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda en \u00e7ok seyahat eden sorun da bu.<\/p>\n<p>Sorunlar i\u00e7inde debelenen Avrupa\u00a0 \u00fclkelerinden\u00a0 bir veya bir ka\u00e7\u0131nda vadesi gelmi\u015f kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6denemeyece\u011fi, devletin temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi ve bu s\u00fcrecin ciddi bir k\u00fcresel krize devinece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6yle bir kriz dinami\u011finin etrafa bula\u015fmamas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bula\u015fma meselesi \u00fc\u00e7 tane bula\u015fma kanal\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleniyor. Bir \u00fclke ya da b\u00f6lgede ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan krizin \u00f6teki \u00fclkelere ticaret kanal\u0131ndan, finans kanal\u0131ndan ve beklenti kanal\u0131ndan bula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Krizlerin d\u0131\u015f ticaret imkan\u0131, ticaret hacmi ve \u00f6zellikle ihracat \u00fczerinde darat\u0131c\u0131 etkileri yaratarak d\u0131\u015f talebi geriletmesi ticaret kanal\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde irdeleniyor. Krizlerin sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131, finansal kaynaklar\u0131 kurutucu etkilerle kaynak darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131\u00a0 finans kanal\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda inceleniyor. Krizlerin ufku daralt\u0131c\u0131, risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131,\u00a0 beklentileri karat\u0131c\u0131 etkiler yaratarak i\u00e7 talebi geriletmesi de beklenti\u00a0 kanal\u0131ndan yans\u0131yan etkiler olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1969134002\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;da olas\u0131 bir krizin kendi d\u0131\u015f\u0131na bu t\u00fcr s\u00fcre\u00e7lerle bula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir bula\u015fma dinami\u011finin bizi \u0131skalamas\u0131 s\u00f6zkonusu de\u011fil. Olas\u0131 bir Avrupa krizi bizi de aynen bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ler yoluyla etkileyecek.<\/p>\n<p>Bir s\u0131ralama yapmam\u0131 isterseniz ilk s\u0131raya beklenti kanal\u0131ndan gelmesi olas\u0131 etkileri koyar\u0131m. Bu ticaret ya da finans kanal\u0131nda olu\u015facak dinamiklerin etkisiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozlu etkiler yarataca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Tersine bu kanallardan \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc daralma spazmlar\u0131 geldi\u011fini \u00f6nceki kriz deneylerimizden biliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Beklenti kanal\u0131n\u0131n ise bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6zg\u00fcn baz\u0131 unsurlar ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu durumun beklenti kanal\u0131ndan gelen etkileri bir ka\u00e7 misli artt\u0131rarak abart\u0131l\u0131 boyutlara ula\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu etkiyi ilk s\u0131raya koymam\u0131n nedeni bu. \u00d6zg\u00fcn unsurlar\u0131 da ikiye ay\u0131r\u0131yorum. Biz beklenti y\u00f6netimini di\u011fer \u00f6rneklerden ayr\u0131\u015facak kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc ve beceriksiz yap\u0131yoruz. Bu g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn sorunu de\u011fil. \u00d6nceki kriz episodlar\u0131n\u0131 bu g\u00f6zle irdelerseniz yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131k ve beceriksizlikleri hemen g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz. Birinci unsur bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3743272612\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bizdeki &#8220;beklenti k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; ise bu ba\u011flamdaki ikinci \u00f6zg\u00fcn unsuru olu\u015fturuyor. Beklenti k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 benim son s\u0131ralarda icat etti\u011fim bir kavram. A\u00e7\u0131klamakta zorluk \u00e7ekti\u011fimiz baz\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri analiz etme imkan\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Beklenti k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kast\u0131m iktisadi beklentilerde asgari bir istikrar\u0131 bile sa\u011fl\u0131yam\u0131yor olmam\u0131z. En ufak bir esintide dahi akt\u00f6rler h\u0131zla ters y\u00f6ne d\u00f6n\u00fcyor, karar ve davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 radikal bi\u00e7imde ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte de\u011fi\u015ftiriyorlar. Bu davran\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7iminin beklentilerimizi k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir de\u011fi\u015fken haline getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Beklenti kanal\u0131ndan gelen etkilerin abart\u0131l\u0131 boyutlara ula\u015f\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k. Avrupa&#8217;da olmas\u0131 muhtemel\u00a0 bir krizin yine abart\u0131l\u0131 beklenti d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve krizin olumsuz etkilerini olabilecek d\u00fczeyin \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Beklenti y\u00f6netimi be nedenle \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Birli\u011finin Euro alan\u0131nda sorunlar bitmiyor. B\u00f6lgede\u00a0 birden fazla ekonomik ve siyasal sorun var. Son d\u00f6nemde Euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerinin de zengin bir sorun stokuna\u00a0 sahip&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}