{"id":5161,"date":"2011-09-16T09:19:23","date_gmt":"2011-09-16T06:19:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5161"},"modified":"2011-09-16T09:19:32","modified_gmt":"2011-09-16T06:19:32","slug":"vob-imkb-farki-neden-ters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/vob-imkb-farki-neden-ters\/","title":{"rendered":"VOB-\u0130MKB Fark\u0131 Neden Ters?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son iki-\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr \u0130MKB 30 Endeksi ile bu endekse dayal\u0131 VOB 30 kontrat\u0131nda s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen\u00a0bir\u00a0durum ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Aktif olan Ekim vadeli VOB 30 kontrat\u0131, IMKB 30 Endeksi\u2019nin (spot) alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. D\u00fcn bir ara \u0130MKB 30 Endeksi 68.925 iken 800 puana kadar \u00e7\u0131kan, g\u00fcn boyu ortalama 250 puan civar\u0131nda seyreden bu fark \u201cnormal\u201d de\u011fildi. Teorik olarak (ortada bir kriz yoksa) VOB kontrat\u0131 vade fark\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 spottan y\u00fcksek olmal\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3771558049\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Vadeye 45 g\u00fcn kalm\u0131\u015f, faizler de y\u00fczde 7\u2019deyken 68.500 seviyesindeki VOB\u2019un vadeye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 puan\u00a0daha\u00a0y\u00fckselmesi \u201cnormal\u201d. 250 puanl\u0131k negatif fark\u0131 da ekleyecek olursak VOB ile spot (\u0130MKB 30) aras\u0131ndaki fark 850 puana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. D\u00fcnk\u00fc fark\u0131 sadece Turkcell\u2019in olas\u0131 temerr\u00fct da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131klamak pek kolay de\u011fil. Zira piyasa profesyonelleri Turkcell\u2019in olas\u0131 bir temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 300 puanl\u0131k bir fark yaratabilece\u011fini hesaplam\u0131\u015flar.<\/p>\n<p>Peki\u00a0bu\u00a0fark ne ifade ediyor? Tabii ki baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00e2r, arbitraj f\u0131rsat\u0131 demekti. \u00d6zellikle elinde Endeks 30 hisselerini bulunduran ya da bor\u00e7 al\u0131p a\u015f\u0131\u011fa satabilecek birisi elindeki hisseleri sat\u0131p, denk miktarda VOB 30 kontrat\u0131 alarak tam bir arbitraj i\u015flemi yapabilir. Satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hisselerden gelen paray\u0131 30 Ekim\u2019e kadar faize yat\u0131r\u0131p vadede VOB pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapat\u0131p, satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hisseleri alarak teorik olarak 850 puanl\u0131k (aradaki fark\u0131n 800 puan oldu\u011funda yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 1.400 puanl\u0131k) bir k\u00e2r elde edebilir! Pozisyon kapat\u0131l\u0131rken yakla\u015f\u0131k 250 puann\u0131n; bazen a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015ftaki \u201cup-tick\u201d kural\u0131ndan bazen de hisse\/VOB i\u015flemlerinin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m farklar\u0131ndan kaybedildi\u011fini de unutmamak gerek.<\/p>\n<p>Son\u00a0birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr s\u00fcren negatif farkta temett\u00fc meselesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde borsan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisinin oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrenler de vard\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00e7ok da mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. Zira VOB i\u015flemlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda son 2-3 g\u00fcnde; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyonlar g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Kald\u0131 ki b\u00f6yle bir beklenti var ise b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon alma kapasitesine sahip kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar neden hisseleri de ayn\u0131 anda satmas\u0131nlar?<\/p>\n<p>Bence aradaki fark\u0131n bu denli \u201cnormalden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d temett\u00fc meselesiyle ba\u015flayan alg\u0131laman\u0131n abart\u0131lmas\u0131ndan, a\u015f\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 (hem up-tick kural\u0131 hem de bor\u00e7 hisse senedi bulmaktaki zorluklar) olarak d\u00fczenlenmi\u015f olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Vadeye yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a sorun ya kendili\u011finden d\u00fczelecek ya da Aral\u0131k kontrat\u0131na devredilecek!<\/p>\n<p><strong>AB\u2019nin bi\u00e7are \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131n\u0131\u015flar\u0131!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Haftalard\u0131r konu\u015fulan Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n dolar fonlamas\u0131ndaki sorunlar, Frans\u0131z bankalar\u0131n\u0131n notlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra akut hale gelmi\u015fe benzer. Avusturya parlamentosunun EFSF miktar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmay\u0131 reddetmesi de i\u015fin tuzu biberi oldu. Hatta dolar fonlamakta zorluk ya\u015fayan baz\u0131 Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n bor\u00e7 alarak, alt\u0131n\/dolar swap\u0131 yapt\u0131klar\u0131 (alt\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn nedenlerinden biri olarak g\u00f6sterilebilir) dahi piyasalarda konu\u015fulur olunca Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, Fed, BoJ, BoE ve \u0130svi\u00e7re MB\u00a0ile\u00a0birlikte bankalara dolar sa\u011flayacak imkanlardan bir ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131 daha \u0131 devreye soktu.<\/p>\n<p>Sorunu \u00f6teleme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n bir yenisi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. \u0130\u015fe yarayacak m\u0131? Daha \u00f6nce verilen onca likidite, ak\u0131t\u0131lan onca fon i\u015fe yarasayd\u0131 bug\u00fcn bu \u00f6nleme ihtiya\u00e7 olurmuydu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1139082491\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mesele likidite meselesi de\u011fil. Sorun ifl\u00e2s noktas\u0131na gelinmi\u015f olmas\u0131, sorun \u201cfiyat\u201d sorunu. Avrupal\u0131 siyasiler de bunun fark\u0131nda ama anla\u015f\u0131lan b\u0131\u00e7ak kemi\u011fe dayanmad\u0131!<\/p>\n<p>Halen daha palyatif \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler pe\u015findeler anlamak zor!<\/p>\n<p>Benden s\u00f6ylemesi bu da i\u015fe yaramayacak!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son iki-\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr \u0130MKB 30 Endeksi ile bu endekse dayal\u0131 VOB 30 kontrat\u0131nda s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen\u00a0bir\u00a0durum ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Aktif olan Ekim vadeli VOB 30 kontrat\u0131, IMKB 30&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5161\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}