{"id":51607,"date":"2017-10-13T09:04:39","date_gmt":"2017-10-13T06:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51607"},"modified":"2017-10-13T11:09:55","modified_gmt":"2017-10-13T08:09:55","slug":"erol-gurcan-erken-pastirma-yazi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-erken-pastirma-yazi-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Erken Past\u0131rma Yaz\u0131 M\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Aral\u0131k 2016 \u2013 A\u011fustos 2017 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6zlenen soluksuz y\u00fckseli\u015f performans\u0131yla tarihi zirvesini 110 binli seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yan B\u0130ST-100 endeksi, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 boyunca g\u00f6zlenen sat\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 seyirle birlikte 101 binli seviyelere kadar gerileyerek, 9 ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk kez ayl\u0131k bazda gerileme g\u00f6sterdi.<\/h2>\n<p>Gelen tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131yla birlikte ekim ay\u0131na g\u00f6rece olumlu ba\u015flayan endekste yeni haftaya ba\u015flarken arka arkaya gelen haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc haziran ay\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa, 100 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkan endekste; \u00f6nceki cuman\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fi ile pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda 5 bin puana yak\u0131n son derece sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn temelinde ABD ile vize konusunda ya\u015fanan gerginlik ve \u0130dlib operasyonu kaynakl\u0131 artan jeopolitik risklerin ilk \u015fok yer almakta idi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-992307857\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son derece sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n endeksin hafta boyunca genel olarak olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir duru\u015f sergiledi\u011fini ve hatta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 106 binlere do\u011fru hareketlendi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da yer alan haftal\u0131k endeks grafi\u011finden de g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi y\u0131l boyunca en sert dalgalanman\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftay\u0131 tamaml\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51608 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"457\" height=\"242\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-1.png 457w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-1-300x159.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 457px) 100vw, 457px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sadece hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen harekete bakarak;<\/p>\n<p>* Endeksteki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015ftah\u0131n korundu\u011fu,<\/p>\n<p>* Piyasan\u0131n \u015fu an i\u00e7in 99-100 bin civar\u0131n\u0131 pek kabul etmedi\u011fi,<\/p>\n<p>* 9 ayl\u0131k soluksuz y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gelen sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve genel anlamda olumsuz haber-veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 psikolojik bask\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck pozitif geli\u015fmenin dahi ciddi bir rahatlama etkisi yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n<p>gibi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlara varmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak, d\u00f6n\u00fcp de \u015f\u00f6yle bir masan\u0131n \u00fczerindekilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bu hareketin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamam\u0131z\u0131n da yerinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek l\u00e2z\u0131m. Masan\u0131n \u00fczerindekilerden neyi kastetti\u011fimizi k\u00fcreselden yerele do\u011fru k\u0131sa k\u0131sa ele alal\u0131m:<\/p>\n<p>* ABD taraf\u0131nda bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi genel anlamda olumlu ba\u015flad\u0131. Pozitif sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n devam etmesi k\u0131sa vadede k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye devam edebilir. Aksi durumda, tarihi zirvelerde olan ABD endekslerinin pahal\u0131 h\u00e2le geldi\u011fi konusundaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3614390214\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>* Merakla beklenen vergi d\u00fczenlemelerine ili\u015fkin detaylar yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde Trump y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00fczenlemelerin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesini destekleyici y\u00f6nde her geli\u015fme k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olumlu r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n esmeye devam etmesini sa\u011flayabilir. Ancak, bu d\u00fczenlemelerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zora girdi\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131 yaratacak geli\u015fmeler k\u00fcresel olarak ciddi bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Zira, sene ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel piyasalarda g\u00f6zlenen rallinin temelini, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, bu yolla k\u00fcresel ekonomide en \u00f6nemli paya sahip olan ABD ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler olu\u015fturmakta.<\/p>\n<p>* Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru h\u00e2line gelen ve tetikleyici etkiye yol a\u00e7mas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe edilen Katalanlar\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k il\u00e2n\u0131 \u201c\u015fimdilik\u201d \u00f6telendi. Ancak, bu sorun tamamen masadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u0130sko\u00e7ya\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019den ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeniden referanduma gitmesi ihtimali de g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n<p>* Son d\u00f6nemde ekonomik verilerin de genel olarak fena gitmedi\u011fi Japonya erken se\u00e7ime gidiyor. \u0130brenin Ba\u015fbakan Abe\u2019den yana olmas\u0131 \u015fu an i\u00e7in Asya taraf\u0131nda havan\u0131n genel olarak olumlu\u00a0 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>* Y\u00fcksek kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve konut piyasas\u0131na dair endi\u015felerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00c7in taraf\u0131nda son PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi) verileri imalat ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri i\u00e7in z\u0131t sinyaller verdi. Gelecek hafta yap\u0131lacak olan kom\u00fcnist parti kongresi sonras\u0131nda \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2567577051\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>* Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel jeopolitik risklerin t\u0131rmand\u0131ran Kuzey Kore kaynakl\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zaman zaman sakinle\u015fse de ciddi bir risk unsuru olarak izlenmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>* Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda y\u00f6neticilerin enflasyondaki seyir kaynakl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere sahip oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d yani k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekleyici bir durum olarak yorumland\u0131 (Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, piyaslar\u0131n 13 Ekim a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisine hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek olacakt\u0131r; ancak bu verilerde ge\u00e7en ay ya\u015fanan kas\u0131rga kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici sapma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini de not edelim). Ancak, bu ay itibariyle 4.5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flayacak olan Fed\u2019in \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz olmad\u0131k\u00e7a aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha gitmesi olduk\u00e7a muhtemel. Yani, bundan sonra hem bilan\u00e7o daraltan hem de faiz art\u0131ran bir Fed olacak; ki bu durum k\u00fcresel olarak dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir unsur.<\/p>\n<p>* Fed\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Avrupa (ECB \u2013 mevcut varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beklentiler) ve \u0130ngiltere (BoE \u2013 yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beklentiler) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n da yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde mevcut geni\u015fleyici para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fundan daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7ece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentiler\/a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; son k\u00fcresel krizin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u2013 bol likidite\u201d d\u00f6neminin somut olarak sonlanmakta oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz; ki bu durum geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pek de i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 bir durum de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>* 6 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ki\u015fisel nedenler dolay\u0131 istifa etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan Fed Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Stanley Fischer\u2019\u0131n koltu\u011funun 13 Ekim itibariyle bo\u015falacak. \u015eubat 2018\u2019de g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi dolacak olan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin uzat\u0131l\u0131p uzat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 belirsiz. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikte Yelllen\u2019\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7mesi muhtemel olan aday listesi Trump\u2019a sunuldu. Fed\u2019in en kritik 2 koltu\u011funda bundan sonra kimlerin olaca\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2len belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. Gelecek isimler konusundaki olas\u0131 spek\u00fclasyonlar, piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6rece\u011fi kabul ve bu ki\u015filerin \u201c\u015fahin \u2013 g\u00fcvercin\u201d s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131nda hangi tarafta yer alaca\u011f\u0131 da k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rma potansiyeline sahip bir di\u011fer kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>* ABD ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda vize konusunda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar son haftaya damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurdu. Yurti\u00e7i piyasalar\u0131n bu konuya dair gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalara olan hassasiyeti ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u015eu ana kadar gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durumun, genel olarak T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 ABD ili\u015fkilerinde bir s\u00fcredir g\u00f6zlenen ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 seyrin sadece \u201cvize-b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i\u201d \u00f6zelinde olmamas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6zellikle yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkiler konusunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019la \u00a0yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortak noktalar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; 15 Ekim&#8217;de \u0130ran&#8217;\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma kurallar\u0131na uyup uymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda Kongreyi bilgilendirmek zorunda olan Trump y\u00f6netiminin, \u0130ran ile P5+1 \u00fclkeleri (ABD, \u0130ngiltere, \u00c7in, Fransa, Rusya ve Almanya) aras\u0131nda 2015&#8217;te imzalanan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 iptal edebilece\u011fi ve \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ter\u00f6r listesine alabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentiler ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde farkl\u0131 konularda da yeni tart\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7abilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>* Kuzey Irak\u2019ta yap\u0131lan referandumun ard\u0131ndan artan jeopolitik riskler, ge\u00e7en hafta sonu ba\u015flayan \u0130dlib Operasyonu ile birlikte artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bas\u0131nda yer alan haberlere g\u00f6re, 8 Ekim\u2019den bu yana ke\u015fif yapan \u00d6zel\u00a0 Kuvvetler timlerinin g\u00f6revlerini tamamlamas\u0131 ve olumlu rapor vermesi sonras\u0131nda, askerlerimiz 12 Ekim gece saatlerinde T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n garant\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde uzla\u015f\u0131ya var\u0131lan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k b\u00f6lgeleri i\u00e7in \u0130dlib\u2019e girmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>* D\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkiler taraf\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 Almanya ili\u015fkileri de sorunlu olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6zellikle 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Almanya Genel Se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde tansiyonun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda tarafta \u00e7ok ciddi bir geli\u015fme g\u00f6zlenmemekle birlikte gelecek hafta toplanacak olan Avrupa Konseyi\u2019nde g\u00fcmr\u00fck birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmesi ve \u00fcyelik m\u00fczakereleri s\u00fcrecinin seyrini etkileyebilecek olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler de yine yurti\u00e7i piyasalardaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rabilme potansiyeline sahip.<\/p>\n<p>* Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ve beklenen enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek seyre ek olarak, kur taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fckseli\u015fin kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle yap\u0131lacak vergi ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n TCMB\u2019yi mevcut para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funda bir miktar daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nlendirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bir miktar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Masan\u0131n \u00fczerindekiler \u00f6zetle bu \u015fekilde. G\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc b\u00f6yle olunca hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zlenen toparlanma, \u015fimdilik erken gelmi\u015f bir \u201cpast\u0131rma yaz\u0131\u201d gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Genellikle ekim ay\u0131 sonundan kas\u0131m ortas\u0131na kadar, yani sonbahar\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken, g\u00fcne\u015fli ve hava s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n mevsime g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00fcnler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan bir deyim \u201cpast\u0131rma yaz\u0131 (s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131)\u201d. Sert havalara ge\u00e7i\u015ften \u00f6nce g\u00fcne\u015fli g\u00fcnlere veda anlam\u0131nda bir nev\u2019i. Bu d\u00f6nem, baz\u0131 y\u0131llarda birka\u00e7 kez ya\u015fanabildi\u011fi gibi, bazen hi\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor; genelde birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn ya da bir hafta civar\u0131nda s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce son s\u00f6z olarak; k\u0131sa vadede, mevcut tepki hareketinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak, tepki hareketinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in, bu hareketi destekleyici y\u00f6nde en az\u0131ndan mevcut risklerde bir azalma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Di\u011fer taraftan, paylar\u0131 Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015firketlere ait 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00e7eyrek finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131na k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde hisse bazl\u0131, k\u00e2rlar\u0131n beklenti-ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hareketlerin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlatmakta da fayda var.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>B\u0130ST-100 <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51609 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-2.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-2-300x201.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nceki haftalarda belirtti\u011fimiz gibi endeksin ilk ciddi dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 100.000 \u2013 101.400 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli en kritik destek b\u00f6lgesi olarak izlemeye devam ediyoruz. Bununla birlikte, endeks, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa, psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan kritik olan 100 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarak 99.210 seviyesine kadar geriledi. Bu seviye, ABD ile ili\u015fkilerde ya\u015fanan gerginlik ve \u0130dlib Operasyonu sonras\u0131nda piyasada g\u00f6zlenen ilk \u015fok fiyatlamas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6nemli. Bundan dolay\u0131 da, daha ciddi bir belirsizlik\/risk durumuyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a k\u0131sa vadede bu seviye \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nma ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Ancak, negatif senaryoda, yani bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve bir sonraki k\u0131sa vadeli muhtemel dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131 gelen 96 bin civarlar\u0131nda denenmesi beklenebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, endeksin 104.300 \u2013 105.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e tepki hareketini devam ettirmesi beklenebilir. Bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda s\u0131ras\u0131yla, 103.800, 103.000, 102.250 seviyeleri ara destekler olarak izlenebilir. Olumlu senaryoda; yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ve Aral\u0131k 2016 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fckselen trende kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 106.750 seviyesi k\u0131sa vadeli en kritik diren\u00e7 konumunda. Bu direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda iyiden iyiye 107.500 ve 108.750 diren\u00e7leri radar girecektir. Teknik indikat\u00f6rlerin genel olarak kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Yukar\u0131da temel a\u00e7\u0131dan s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gerek\u00e7elere ek olarak, teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan hacim taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen seyrin de son y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketinin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamam\u0131za neden olan unsurlardan oldu\u011funu belirtmekte fayda var. Hacim (lot baz\u0131nda) \u00fczerinde yer alan lacivert renkli \u00e7izgi 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Dikkat edilirse, sene ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren endekste g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fckseli\u015fin ortalama hacim taraf\u0131ndan da desteklendi\u011fi; bu uyumun bozulmas\u0131yla endeksin seyrinde \u00f6nce karas\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam\u0131nda da sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Son tepki hareketinde ise ortalama hacmin hen\u00fcz yatay bir e\u011filim g\u00f6stermekte olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici. Olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketlerinin ortalama hacim taraf\u0131ndan da desteklenmesi durumunda mevcut tepki hareketinin daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Dolar\/TL<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51610 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"387\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-3.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-13.10.2017-3-300x192.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da dolar\/TL\u2019ye ait saatlik fiyat grafi\u011fi yer al\u0131yor. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan kurun son derece sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Mevcut risk ve belirsizlik unsurlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik\u00e7e kurun k\u0131sa vadede 3.59 &#8211; 3.60 TL alt\u0131nda dengelenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekte. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 200 saatlik hareketli ortalaman\u0131n zaman zaman destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. Ayr\u0131ca, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 ay \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 3.38 TL\u2019den, hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki gerginlikle birlikte Asya seans\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirve olan 3.79 TL\u2019ye \u00e7izilen Fibonacci D\u00fczelme Seviyelerinden % 38.2\u2019ye de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 3.63 \u2013 3.64 TL k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli destek konumunda. Bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda 3.59 &#8211; 3.60 TL\u2019ye do\u011fru bir gerileme s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde 3.69 \u2013 3.71 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve devam\u0131nda 3.75 TL civaar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7ler konumunda. Ekstra bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a, kurun, kabaca % 38.2 ile % 23.6 seviyelerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 3.63 \u2013 3.69 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengelenme e\u011filimine girmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">Yat\u0131r\u0131m Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aral\u0131k 2016 \u2013 A\u011fustos 2017 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6zlenen soluksuz y\u00fckseli\u015f performans\u0131yla tarihi zirvesini 110 binli seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yan B\u0130ST-100 endeksi, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 boyunca g\u00f6zlenen sat\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 seyirle birlikte&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,1497,752,753,1496],"class_list":["post-51607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51607\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}