{"id":51589,"date":"2017-10-10T20:43:51","date_gmt":"2017-10-10T17:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51589"},"modified":"2017-10-11T10:45:13","modified_gmt":"2017-10-11T07:45:13","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-bimf-tahminleriyle-ovp-tahminlerinin-karsilastirmali-degerlendirmesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-bimf-tahminleriyle-ovp-tahminlerinin-karsilastirmali-degerlendirmesi\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; IMF Tahminleriyle OVP Tahminlerinin Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 De\u011ferlendirmesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>Genellikle \u00f6nce IMF, D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Raporunu yay\u0131nlar, o raporda (IMF WEO) \u00fcye \u00fclkelere ve o arada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klar, Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) ondan sonra a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rd\u0131. Bu y\u0131l tersi oldu ve \u00f6nce OVP a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. IMF de tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re bu tahminleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. IMF tahminleriyle OVP tahminlerini bir arada g\u00f6steren tabloyu yaz\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki ekte dikkatinize sunuyorum. Pe\u015f pe\u015fe \u015foklar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131, her g\u00fcn g\u00f6stergelerin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla tahminlerin revize edilmek zorunda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortamda 2018\u2019den \u00f6tesine ili\u015fkin tahminler pek anlam ta\u015f\u0131mayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tabloya ve de\u011ferlendirmelere yaln\u0131zca bu iki y\u0131l\u0131 al\u0131yorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1525733405\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme Oran\u0131: GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in IMF WEO\u2019da y\u00fczde 5,1, OVP\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 5,5 olarak tahmin edilmi\u015f bulunuyor. \u0130lk yar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 5,2 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Eldeki veriler \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ekonominin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte h\u0131z kesmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin emareler ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yine de ikinci alt\u0131 ay\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor. Ki bu bizi y\u0131ll\u0131k kabaca y\u00fczde 5,5\u2019luk bir ortalamaya g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu durumda 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini olarak OVP\u2019nin tahmini daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i duruyor.<\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2017\/10\/imf-tahminleriyle-ovp-tahminlerinin.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131 Genellikle \u00f6nce IMF, D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Raporunu yay\u0131nlar, o raporda (IMF WEO) \u00fcye \u00fclkelere ve o arada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klar,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-51589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}