{"id":51417,"date":"2017-09-29T08:50:51","date_gmt":"2017-09-29T05:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51417"},"modified":"2017-09-29T12:01:01","modified_gmt":"2017-09-29T09:01:01","slug":"erol-gurcan-borsada-dip-neresi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-borsada-dip-neresi\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Borsada Dip Neresi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Yurti\u00e7i piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n belki de en s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n\u0131 benzer \u015fekilde belki de y\u0131l\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftalar\u0131ndan biriyle tamaml\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n<p>B\u0130ST-100 endeksi 2 Aral\u0131k 2016 tarihinde test etti\u011fi en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 71.792 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan ralliyle birlikte 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos sonuna kadar olan d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k 39 bin puan ve % 54 oran\u0131n\u0131 bulan y\u00fckseli\u015fle tarihi zirvesini 110.530\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ki, Aral\u0131k 2016 \u2013 A\u011fustos 2017 d\u00f6nemi boyunca endeksin, ayl\u0131k bazda, soluksuz bir \u015fekilde 9 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1230553221\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131 boyunca 3 \u2013 4 defa denenmesine kar\u015f\u0131n 110 bin seviyesi \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak tutunulamamas\u0131 ve yine ayn\u0131 ay boyunca endekste g\u00f6zlenen karars\u0131z seyir yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentilerin kuvvetlenmesine neden oldu. A\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131 110.010 seviyesinden tamamlayan endeks, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 boyunca g\u00f6zlenen yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 bin puan ve % 8.2 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte 28 Eyl\u00fcl itibariyle 100.987 seviyesine kadar geriledi. 9 ayl\u0131k soluksuz y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f dinamiklerde g\u00f6zlenen de\u011fi\u015fimlerde g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda genel olarak bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyordu. Ancak, bu d\u00fczeltmenin bu kadar sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00e7ok da beklenen bir durum de\u011fildi diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Uzun laf\u0131n k\u0131sas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen endekste co\u015fku, \u00f6nceki ay yerini hafif tedirgin bir bekleyi\u015fe ve son ay itibariyle de pani\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ki endeksin bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcne g\u00f6re puan de\u011fi\u015fimleri de bu durumu net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131t\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi; pazartesi 1.853 puan d\u00fc\u015fen endeks, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.659 puan y\u00fckselip, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden 2.711 puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc de 1.433 puan y\u00fckseldi. Yani endeks hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana s\u00fcrekli sert bir \u015fekilde bir ileri bir geri yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51419 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-1.png 480w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-1-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>H\u00e2l b\u00f6yle olunca, herkesin akl\u0131nda olu\u015fan soru; bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne zaman bitece\u011fi ve \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemlisi ay boyunca g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nerede duraca\u011f\u0131, yani dibin neresi olaca\u011f\u0131. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle bu soruya net ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir cevap verebilmek \u00e7ok da kolay de\u011fil. Yine de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan temel ve teknik gerek\u00e7elere odaklanarak bir durum de\u011ferlendirmesi yaparak; bir fikir vermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede g\u00f6zlenmesi muhtemel senaryolar \u00fczerinde durabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme bir alt yap\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ba\u015fl\u0131ca temel konulara bakal\u0131m. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcreselde Kuzey Kore, yurti\u00e7inde Kuzey Irak kaynakl\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan jeopolitik riskler h\u00e2len masada. Ancak, her iki tarafta da s\u00f6ylemlerin dozu olabilecek en \u00fcst perdelere ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve bu durumun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamalara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, her iki cephede de i\u015fin askeri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme\/s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya gitmemesi h\u00e2linde, bu gerek\u00e7eler kaynakl\u0131 yeni ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rme ihtimali birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha az diyebiliriz (k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k olabilir, ancak dalgalanma muhtemelen daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r). Zira, az \u00f6nce de de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi mevcut risklere fiyatlara b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde girmi\u015f durumda. Bundan dolay\u0131, tansiyonun artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri destekleyici her geli\u015fme risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek piyasalar\u0131 rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 etkide bulunacakt\u0131r. Olumsuz senaryoda, yani s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda ise yeni bir dip g\u00f6rmemiz kuvvetle muhtemel.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel tarafta dikkate almam\u0131z gereken di\u011fer \u00f6nemli iki ba\u015fl\u0131k Trump ve Fed. Trump y\u00f6netimi, \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcredir beklenen vergi d\u00fczenlemelerine ili\u015fkin detaylar\u0131 nihayet bu hafta payla\u015ft\u0131. Hat\u0131rlatma yapmak gerekirse, y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen ralliye b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015fta vergi konusu olmak \u00fczere Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi vaatleri dayanak olu\u015fturdu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, vaat edilen kurumlar vergisindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, ABD \u015firketlerinin net k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 4\u2019te 1\u2019ini olu\u015fturan ABD ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentiler \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Vergi konusundaki detaylar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131 destekleyici bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ancak, yasala\u015fma a\u015famas\u0131nda di\u011fer vaatlerde oldu\u011fu gibi sorunlar\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve s\u00fcrecin kilitlenmesi gibi bir durumun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n sert bir \u015fekilde terse d\u00f6nmesine neden olabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu riski g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemekte fayda var. Ama, her ne kadar biz tam anlam\u0131yla kat\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f olsak da, \u015fimdilik, k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n barda\u011f\u0131n dolu taraf\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyi tercih etti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim Fed konusuna. Art\u0131k hem bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclten hem de kademeli faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam eden bir Fed olacak; ki her ikisi de k\u00fcresel olarak dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 unsurlar. Son Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda 1 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha gitmesi zay\u0131f bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131n; \u00f6zellikle Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n ve Fed y\u00f6neticilerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha gidilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kuvvetlendirdi. \u00a0\u00d6zellikle, Yellen\u2019\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyonun % 2\u2019ye gelmesinin beklenmesinin ihtiyats\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131nda \u00e7ok fazla kademeli olmaktan sak\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi bu anlamda kritik. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131nda dolar\u0131n, k\u00fcresel olarak, \u00f6zellikle de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir de\u011ferlenme g\u00f6stermekte oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izelim. Ayr\u0131ca, Fed\u2019in bu do\u011frultuda hareket etmesinin; mevcut varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde sonland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerin kuvvetlendi\u011fi Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fini de vurgulayal\u0131m. Her iki senaryoda d\u0131\u015f finansmana eri\u015fimin maliyetini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ve di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan negatif geli\u015fmeler olarak not edilebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Teknik detaylara ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce de\u011finilmesi gereken bir di\u011fer kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Orta Vadeli Program ve s\u00fcrpriz vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131. Ancak, detaylara girmemiz h\u00e2linde bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n konusunun da\u011f\u0131lacak olmas\u0131 ve bu ba\u015fl\u0131klara ili\u015fkin detaylar\u0131n son 2 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir not d\u00fc\u015felim. \u00d6ncelikle, vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, Orta Vadeli Program\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtelim. 2018 itibariyle uygulanmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede talebin \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilmesine neden olarak y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 verebilir. Ancak, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n genelinde hem \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilen talep hem de harcanabilir geliri k\u0131s\u0131tlayacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle i\u00e7 talebi bask\u0131layabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6zelinde (spesifik olarak bir sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinde) bir art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131 da negatif bir unsur; ki, endeksin bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc banklara \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 2.711 puanl\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermesi de bu durumun bir yans\u0131mas\u0131. Bu durum bankalar\u0131n net k\u00e2r\u0131 2018 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren yakla\u015f\u0131k % 2.5 oran\u0131nda negatif bir etkiye yol a\u00e7acak ve tek ba\u015f\u0131na trend de\u011fi\u015ftirici bir unsur olmasa da kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerinde bir miktar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn artacak maliyetlerinin kredi faizlerine yans\u0131yacak olmas\u0131 da yine kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerinde negatif bir etkiye yol a\u00e7abilir. Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131n genel olarak niyet-temenni a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc verdi\u011fini; ancak rakamsal tahminlerin detay\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dileriz yakalanabilir ancak, temel makroekonomik g\u00f6stergeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan genel anlamda bir miktar iyimser kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc de ifade edelim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3745878005\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme\u2026<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51418 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"679\" height=\"477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-2.png 679w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-2-300x211.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 679px) 100vw, 679px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte B\u0130ST-100 endeksi, aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ve sene ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana devam eden 2 ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini de k\u0131rd\u0131. Bu hareketle birlikte, endeksteki rallinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dip seviyeden tarihi zirveye \u00e7izilen Fibonacci D\u00fczelme seviyelerinden % 23.6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 101.388\u2019teki kritik deste\u011fin son 2 g\u00fcnde 2 defa test edildi\u011fi, hatta k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa alt\u0131na sark\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Yakla\u015f\u0131k son 1 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 9 bin puan civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyen olumsuzluklar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlara girmi\u015f olmas\u0131, test edilen seviyenin Fibonacci D\u00fczelme Seviyelerine g\u00f6re kritik olmas\u0131 ve son g\u00fcnlerde endekste devam eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m \u2013 sat\u0131m ve trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stergesi olan CCI\u2019daki toparlanma e\u011filimi gibi unsurlar k\u0131sa vadede tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131yla birlikte endekste bir miktar toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan unsurlara olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Daha \u00f6nce \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre psikolojik diren\u00e7 konumunda olan ve k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte deste\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen 100.000 seviyesinin psikolojik \u00f6nemi de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, endekste k\u0131sa vadeli ilk dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n 100.000 \u2013 101.400 destek b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda olu\u015fmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00f6lgenin dip olmas\u0131 durumunda, k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131ras\u0131yla 103.250, 104.650 ve 105.800 diren\u00e7lerinin test edilmesi beklenebilir. Mevcut risklerde herhangi bir art\u0131\u015f \u2013 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi durumunda endeksin bir s\u00fcre kabaca 102 \u2013 105 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir dengelenme e\u011filimine girdi\u011fi de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. 105 binli seviyelerin \u00fczerinde tutunulabilmesi durumunda, birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k vade i\u00e7inde 107.500 ve 108.750 diren\u00e7lerinin de yeniden radara girdi\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz. Di\u011fer taraftan, endeksin, ilk kritik dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz 100.000 \u2013 101.400 destek b\u00f6lgesi \u00fczerinde tutunamamas\u0131 durumunda; yeni bir sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131yla h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde 95 \u2013 96 bin civarlar\u0131na geriledi\u011fi ve yeni dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bu civarlarda yapmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, \u015fu an bulundu\u011fumuz seviyelerden bir tepki gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bundan dolay\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli dibin 100.000 \u2013 101.400 destek b\u00f6lgesinde olu\u015fabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsek de bunun teyidini hen\u00fcz tam olarak almad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 belirtelim. Bu destek b\u00f6lgesinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda yeni dip 95 bin civarlar\u0131nda olu\u015fabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, olas\u0131 tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler, katlanabilecekleri zarar\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak 100.000 \u2013 101.400 destek b\u00f6lgesini endeks baz\u0131nda zarar kesme (stop loss) seviyesi olarak takip etmek ve hisse baz\u0131nda se\u00e7ici olmak kayd\u0131yla 105 \u2013 106 bin civar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrebilecek harekete kat\u0131lmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirler. Di\u011fer taraftan, risk alma anlam\u0131nda daha muhafazakar bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na sahip olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut seviyelerdeki dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n teyidi al\u0131nana kadar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak nakitte kalmay\u0131 tercih etmeleri yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Dolar\/TL<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51421 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-3.png 616w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-29.09.2017-3-300x192.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca, yukar\u0131da i\u015faret etti\u011fimiz \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentiler nedeniyle son g\u00fcnlerde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TL\u2019de her ne kadar genel olarak di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerine nazaran daha olumlu bir performans g\u00f6steriyor olsa da bu y\u00fckseli\u015ften nasibini ald\u0131. Mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda kurun 3.60 TL s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Grafik \u00fczerinden de g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi mart ay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tepeden y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olan ve yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde test edilen dibe \u00e7izilen Fibonacci D\u00fczelme % 50 seviyesinin ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak bu seviyeye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmesi ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m \u2013 sat\u0131m indikat\u00f6r\u00fc olan RSI\u2019\u0131n hem ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyelerde hem de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor olmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede bir miktar gev\u015feme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel olarak dolar\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesinde bir art\u0131\u015f olmazsa k\u0131sa vadede 3.54 \u2013 3.59 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir dengelenme e\u011filimine girilmesi muhtemel. Bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi endekse de destek verebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, hem Trump\u2019\u0131n vergi reformuna ili\u015fkin hem Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentiler nedeniyle dolardaki orta-uzun vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olarak kalmaya devam etti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izelim. Bundan dolay\u0131 da, mevcut risklerde bir azalma olmad\u0131k\u00e7a kur taraf\u0131nda \u00e7ok anlaml\u0131 bir gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi ve 3.50 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nmas\u0131 muhtemel. Ayr\u0131ca, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yurti\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak enflasyon verileri de kurdaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rma potansiyeline sahip oldu\u011fundan yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 3.60 TL\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda kurun 3.63 &#8211; 3.65 TL\u2019ye do\u011fru hareketlenmesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u00a0 bir olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-468421902\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">Yat\u0131r\u0131m Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yurti\u00e7i piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n belki de en s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n\u0131 benzer \u015fekilde belki de y\u0131l\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftalar\u0131ndan biriyle tamaml\u0131yoruz. B\u0130ST-100 endeksi 2 Aral\u0131k 2016&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,1497,752,753,1496],"class_list":["post-51417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51417\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}