{"id":51322,"date":"2017-09-22T09:04:10","date_gmt":"2017-09-22T06:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51322"},"modified":"2017-09-22T14:04:31","modified_gmt":"2017-09-22T11:04:31","slug":"erol-gurcan-gerginlik-tirmanirken-borsa-ve-dolarin-gorunumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-gerginlik-tirmanirken-borsa-ve-dolarin-gorunumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Gerginlik T\u0131rman\u0131rken Borsa ve Dolar\u0131n G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>\u00d6nceki haftaki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda temel ve teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan endeksin k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gelen olumsuz sinyaller \u00fczerinde durmu\u015f; ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen bozulman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede iyimserli\u011fin sonu mu yoksa k\u0131sa bir soluklanma m\u0131 oldu\u011funu irdelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre boyunca barda\u011f\u0131n bo\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla olumsuz senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/h2>\n<p>14 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 108.244 seviyesinden kapan\u0131\u015f yapan B\u0130ST-100 endeksi 21 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 4243 puan ve % 3.9 oran\u0131nda gerilemeyle 104.001 seviyesinden kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Teknik dinamiklerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bu gerilemede (veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131zlanmas\u0131nda) Almanya ile olan ili\u015fkilerdeki gerginlik, Kuzey Irak referandumu kaynakl\u0131 artan tansiyon ile s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgesinde yap\u0131lan askeri tatbikatlar, son toplant\u0131da Fed\u2019in piyasadaki beklentilere g\u00f6re bir miktar daha \u015fahin olarak yorumlanabilecek bir duru\u015f sergilemesi gibi geli\u015fmeler \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3598088611\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Endeksteki teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce geldi\u011fimiz duruma ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde takip edilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca geli\u015fmelere de\u011finmekte fayda var. \u00d6ncelikle, Barzani\u2019nin referandum konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi tansiyonu iyiden iyiye t\u0131rmand\u0131rmakta. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019den d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn hemen ard\u0131ndan 22 Eyl\u00fcl Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Milli G\u00fcvenlik Kurulu ve Bakanlar Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131 arka arkaya yap\u0131lacak. Bu durum bir s\u00fcredir biliniyordu ve fiyatlamalara k\u0131smen yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak, bu toplant\u0131lardan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ekonomik ve siyasi odakl\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 beklenmekteydi. Bu hafta s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgesinde pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flayan ve s\u00fcren askeri tatbikat ile yap\u0131lan sevkiyatlara ek olarak, Per\u015fembe ak\u015fam\u0131 itibariyle T\u00fcrkiye B\u00fcy\u00fck Millet Meclisi (TBMM)\u2019nin 23 Eyl\u00fcl Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131ya gidece\u011fi ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na asker g\u00f6nderme karar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclece\u011finin duyurulmas\u0131yla askeri m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Daha \u00f6nce Irak ve Suriye\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi operasyon yetkisi i\u00e7in TBMM\u2019de kabul edilen tezkerenin s\u00fcresi 31 Ekim 2017 tarihine kadar ge\u00e7erli. Yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi Kuzey Irak kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler son g\u00fcnlerde k\u0131smen fiyatlamalara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olsa da; olas\u0131 bir s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalinin hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlara girmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu ihtimalin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rmemiz durumunda endeks \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar daha artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimizi not etmekte fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer kritik konu da Almanya olan ili\u015fkilerin nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fi. 24 Eyl\u00fcl g\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya\u2019da yap\u0131lacak olan Genel Se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan, son d\u00f6nemde iyiden iyiye gerilen ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme e\u011filimine girece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beklentiler h\u00e2kim. Se\u00e7imlerin hemen ertesinde g\u00fcn\u00fc olmasa bile \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ili\u015fkilerde artan tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n TL varl\u0131klar\u0131 pozitif etkilemesi beklenebilir. Aksi s\u00f6ylemler ve\/veya normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin gecikmesi gibi geli\u015fmeler ise TL varl\u0131klar\u0131 bir s\u00fcre daha olumsuz etkilemeye devam edebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemlerde ili\u015fkilerde gerginli\u011fin hissedildi\u011fi bir di\u011fer \u00fclkenin ABD oldu\u011fu da malum. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD ziyaret\u0130 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelden yans\u0131yan ilk bilgiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin olumlu ge\u00e7ti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bilgiler bas\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadede TL varl\u0131klar\u0131 lehine bir geli\u015fme olarak yorumlanabilecek olsa da son g\u00fcnlerde Irak b\u00f6lgesinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri dikkate alarak kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyimserlik i\u00e7in h\u00e2len somut geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6rmeye ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011funu da s\u00f6ylemek l\u00e2zm.<\/p>\n<p>Fed, 19 \u2013 20 Eyl\u00fcl tarihlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Eyl\u00fcl Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gelecek ay itibariyle bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde karar ald\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda 1 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha gidilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentilerini korudu. Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta ba\u015flar\u0131nda piyasa taraf\u0131ndan % 30 civarlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmekteydi. ABD T\u00dcFE verilerinin beklenti \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi sonras\u0131nda bu olas\u0131l\u0131k % 50\u2019lere t\u0131rman\u0131rken; Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda da % 70\u2019lere ula\u015ft\u0131. Bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme s\u00fcreci ayl\u0131k toplam 10 milyar dolar seviyesinde ba\u015flay\u0131p kademeli art\u0131\u015fla 12 ay sonunda toplam 50 milyar dolar seviyesine ula\u015facak. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki ayl\u0131k 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k azalt\u0131m\u0131n 6 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131 devlet tahvilleri olu\u015fturacak. Devlet tahvillerindeki azalt\u0131m miktar\u0131 her 3 ayda bir 6 milyar dolar art\u0131r\u0131larak 12 ay\u0131n sonunda 30 milyar dolara ula\u015facak. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki 10 milyar dolar\u0131n 4 milyar dolarl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131 ise Varl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymetler ve di\u011fer tahvillerden (Mortgage backed ve agency debt) olu\u015facak. Bu k\u0131s\u0131mdaki tahvillerden azalt\u0131m miktar\u0131 da her 3 ayda bir 4 milyar dolar art\u0131r\u0131larak 12 ay\u0131n sonunda 20 milyar dolara ula\u015facak. B\u00f6ylelikle, 12 ay\u0131n sonunda toplamda 50 milyar dolara ula\u015facak azalt\u0131m\u0131n bu \u015fekilde korunmas\u0131 ve Fed bilan\u00e7osundaki tahvil miktar\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkin ve efektif bir \u015fekilde uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya devam edecek seviyeye gelene kadar azalt\u0131lacak. Bu \u015fekilde bilan\u00e7onun hangi seviyeye kadar indirilece\u011fi de hen\u00fcz net de\u011fil. May\u0131s ay\u0131 sonunda San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Williams, bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2 ya da 2.5 trilyon dolara yak\u0131n olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ifade etmi\u015fti. Fed\u2019in bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda duyurmas\u0131 ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 Haziran\u2019da ifade etti\u011fi \u015fekilde kesintisiz s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi durumunda bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2.5 trilyon dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesinin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini hesapl\u0131yoruz. Bu hesaplamaya y\u00f6nelik Fed bilan\u00e7osunun muhtemel geli\u015fimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik \u00fczerinden incelenebilir (gri b\u00f6lge son k\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6nemi, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 b\u00f6lge olas\u0131 bilan\u00e7o azalt\u0131m s\u00fcreci)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51323 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"605\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-1.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-1-300x147.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yani, bundan sonraki d\u00f6nemde hem kademeli faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam eden hem de bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclten bir Fed olacak; ki bu durum k\u00fcresel olarak dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini destekleyecek \u00f6nemli bir unsur olarak not edilebilir. Bu da geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin pek de i\u015fine gelmeyecek bir durum olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer taraftan, g\u00f6reve gelmesinden bu yana s\u00fcrekli siyasi a\u00e7mazlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde olan ve vaatleri ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sorgulanan Trump\u2019\u0131n son d\u00f6nemlerde, \u00f6zellikle de bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 sorunun a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde Demokratlarla sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011finin de Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik \u015fahin beklentileri art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini ifade etmekte de fayda var. Trump\u2019\u0131n Demokratlarla vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzla\u015f\u0131 da Harvey ve Irma Kas\u0131rgalar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahribat\u0131n etkisini (gelecek enflasyon verilerinde g\u00f6zlenebilecek olas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f da yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilir) ve h\u00e2len ba\u015fta vergi konusu olmak \u00fczere Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomik vaatlerine ili\u015fkin h\u00e2len somut bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmeyelim. Ayr\u0131ca, Kuzey Kore kaynakl\u0131 riskler de h\u00e2len masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Son olarak,\u00a0Kuzey Kore D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n, \u00fclkenin Pasifik&#8217;te bir Hidrojen bombas\u0131 denemesi yapabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda jeopolitik risk fiyatlamas\u0131 yeniden \u00f6n planda. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadede k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda bir miktar azalma g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f olsa da, h\u00e2len Fed\u2019in beklenenden daha \u015fahin bir tutum sergilemesini gerektirecek \u015fartlar olu\u015fmu\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Buraya kadar olan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc toparlamak gerekirse; piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli risk unsurlar\u0131 olan Fed karar\u0131 ve Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD ziyareti geride kald\u0131. \u015eu an i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli en kritik risk Kuzey Irak kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve Almanya\u2019daki se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131nda ili\u015fkilerin evrilece\u011fi y\u00f6n olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bundan dolay\u0131 da endeks ve kur taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen gerginli\u011fin bir s\u00fcre daha devam etmesi kuvvetle muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4080125266\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim endeksteki teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51324 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-2.png 616w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-2-300x192.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta, B\u0130ST-100 endeksinde sene ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana devam eden y\u00fckselen trendin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (ayn\u0131 zamanda 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 saatlik hareketli ortalamaya da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 108.750 deste\u011fi) sonras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fczeltmenin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Son durum itibariyle endeksin Aral\u0131k 2016\u2019dan bu yana devam eden y\u00fckselen trendi (104.000 \u2013 104.300 destek b\u00f6lgesi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc test etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Endeks, temmuz ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda 101.415 direncini a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra \u00fcst \u00fcste 6 g\u00fcnl\u00fck soluksuz y\u00fckseli\u015f performans\u0131 (ki 2017\u2019nin en uzun 2. y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi ) ile 106.402 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu hareketin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 100.084 dip seviyesinden, ilk d\u00fczeltmenin geldi\u011fi 106.402 tepe seviyesine \u00e7izilen Fibonacci D\u00fczelme Seviyelerinin % 61.8 kademesi (103.987) de yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak test edilmekte olan trend seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmektedir. Gerek bu durum gerekse de son g\u00fcnlerde endekste g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m \u2013 sat\u0131m ve trend g\u00f6stergesi olan CCI indikat\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen yatayla\u015fmada k\u0131sa vadede bir tepki al\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmekte. Bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131ras\u0131yla 104.900, 105.600 ve 106.400 diren\u00e7lerinin test edilmesi beklenebilir. Bu tepki hareketinin yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yukar\u0131da de\u011finilen risklerin TL varl\u0131klar lehine olacak \u015fekilde sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ve endeksin yeniden 107.600 \u00fczerinde tutundu\u011funun g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekmektedir. Olumsuz senaryoda ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla 103.250, 102.500 ve 101.415 destekleri izlenebilir. Son geli\u015fmeleri ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki takvimi dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda endeksteki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin tepki niteli\u011finde kalmas\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekte. Bundan dolay\u0131 da olas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131nda son derece titiz davran\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ve mutlaka bir zarar kes (stop loss) stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesi i\u00e7inde hareket edilmesinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc ifade edelim.<\/p>\n<h3>Dolar\/TL<\/h3>\n<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesi sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve enflasyonuna ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki art\u0131\u015flar ve Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik endi\u015flerin etkisiyle, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 3.5268 TL\u2019den tamamlayan dolar\/TL, 11 Ocak tarihinde 3.9422 TL seviyesini test etmi\u015fti. Bu seviyeden itibaren ba\u015fta TCMB olmak \u00fczere ilgili politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar ile Trump-Fed kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin de k\u00fcresel olarak dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etkileri kur taraf\u0131ndaki tansiyonun \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. \u00d6yle ki, ayl\u0131k bazda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar\/TL \u015eubat \u2013 A\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde kesintisiz olarak 7 ay boyunca geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Her ne kadar Fed kaynakl\u0131 beklentiler dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel de\u011ferini orta \u2013 uzun vadede destekleyecek olsa da; dolar\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren DXY endeksindeki k\u0131sa vadedeki g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f seyrin korundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, dolar\/TL\u2019de son g\u00fcnlerde g\u00f6zlenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde risk fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar daha \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karmakta denebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1180374649\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51325 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-3.png 480w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-3-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>11 Eyl\u00fcl itibariyle 3.3888 TL ile y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc test eden dolar\/TL, yukar\u0131da detayl\u0131ca ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z geli\u015fmelerin etkisiyle 21 Eyl\u00fcl itibariyle kur h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle 3.52 TL s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayand\u0131. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n, ABD ziyaretinden gelen ilk mesajlar\u0131n olumlu olmas\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131yla son g\u00fcnlerde kur taraf\u0131nda artan tansiyonun bir miktar dengelenme e\u011filimine girdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ekstra bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a kurun k\u0131sa vadede 3.49 \u2013 3.52 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengelenme e\u011filimine girmesi beklenebilir. Ancak, \u00f6zellikle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcre i\u00e7in Kuzey Irak\u2019taki referanduma y\u00f6nelik haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kurdaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde k\u0131sa vadeli en kritik diren\u00e7 3.5215 TL seviyesinde bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu direncin kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ve ilk a\u015famada 3.55 TL civarlar\u0131na kadar bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00f6zlenmesi beklenebilir. Bu durumda kurun 3.52 \u2013 3.55 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengelenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kuvvetlenecektir. Olumsuz senaryoda, yani 3.55 TL\u2019nin de a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda 3.59 TL\u2019ye do\u011fru bir hareketlenme gelmesi beklenebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, k\u0131sa vadeli en \u00f6nemli destek konumunda olan 3.4875 TL\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda ise 3.4650 TL ve 3.4500 TL destekleri izlenebilir. Yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fimiz risklere ek olarak; enflasyonun \u00e7ift hanelerdeki seyri ve bir s\u00fcre daha yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin a\u011f\u0131r basacak olmas\u0131 ile artan Hazine bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 gibi geli\u015fmelerin de k\u0131sa vadede dolar\/TL taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kuzey Irak kaynakl\u0131 riskler masada kald\u0131k\u00e7a kur taraf\u0131nda anlaml\u0131 bir gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51326 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"387\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-4.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-4-300x192.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, kurda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fck\u00e7e yurti\u00e7i yerle\u015fiklerin d\u00f6viz hesaplar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ve yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde bu durumun daha da dikkat \u00e7ekici duruma gelmesi de \u0131sa vadede kur taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan unsurlardan biri olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-51327 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-5.png 481w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-22.09.2017-5-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\">Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\">Yat\u0131r\u0131m Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6nceki haftaki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda temel ve teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan endeksin k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gelen olumsuz sinyaller \u00fczerinde durmu\u015f; ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen bozulman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,1497,752,753,1496],"class_list":["post-51322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51322"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51322\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}