{"id":5128,"date":"2011-09-15T09:23:10","date_gmt":"2011-09-15T06:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5128"},"modified":"2011-09-15T09:34:29","modified_gmt":"2011-09-15T06:34:29","slug":"en-gerceklesebilir-iyimser-senaryo-ne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/en-gerceklesebilir-iyimser-senaryo-ne\/","title":{"rendered":"En Ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir \u0130yimser Senaryo Ne?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ko\u015fullar temkinli tavr\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda kalacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-737089504\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Birka\u00e7 liderin ve ekonomi hakk\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini saplant\u0131 haline getirerek asla uzla\u015fmaya yana\u015fmayan politikac\u0131lar\u0131n ne yapacaklar\u0131na hi\u00e7 bu kadar ba\u011fl\u0131 olmu\u015f muydu ekonomilerin kaderi? \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fi ve bu \u00fclkelerdeki i\u015fsizli\u011fin ne y\u00f6nde geli\u015fece\u011fi temelde iki unsura ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Birincisi \u015fu: Obama\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fsizli\u011fi azaltmak amac\u0131yla vergi gelirlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve e\u011fitim ile altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131ran yeni plan\u0131 Kongre\u2019de kabul edilecek mi? \u0130kincisi: Avrupa, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6nlemek \u00fczere acil \u00f6nlemler alacak m\u0131? Daha somut olarak, ortak bir Avrupa tahvili \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak (Eurobond), sorunlu \u00fclkelerin mevcut bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu tahvillerle de\u011fi\u015ftirilecek mi? Ya da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), sorunlu \u00fclkelerin tahvillerini bankalardan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 garanti edecek mi? \u00c7o\u011fu ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem Obama\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nlem paketinin yasala\u015fmas\u0131 hem de Avrupal\u0131lar\u0131n acil \u00f6nlem almalar\u0131 iyi haber olacak. B\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin toparlanma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 artacak. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar \u015fimdilik kalkacak, g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fcne\u015fli olmayacak ama g\u00fcne\u015fli g\u00fcnleri yaratmak i\u00e7in vakit kazan\u0131lacak. Yani tam bir \u2018hayat bayram olsa\u2019 durumu.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa bu kararlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor \u00e7o\u011fu uzman. \u0130yice kutupla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ABD siyasetinin, \u00f6zellikle de Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti\u2019deki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f kanad\u0131n harcamalar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir plan\u0131 onaylamayacaklar\u0131 belirtiliyor. Avrupal\u0131 liderler ise olan biteni anlamaktan uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Almanya, Eurobond uygulamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Geriye, ECB\u2019nin para basarak tahvilleri almas\u0131 \u00f6nerisi kal\u0131yor. Ne var ki bu t\u00fcr bir uygulamaya ECB\u2019de kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan bir kesim oldu\u011fu art\u0131k s\u0131r de\u011fil. Sonu\u00e7ta \u00e7ok say\u0131da ki\u015fi, \u00e7ok \u015fiddetli bir krizin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n; zaten ortada bir kriz var. Kap\u0131da olan, bu krizin \u00e7ok \u015fiddetlenerek Avrupa\u2019da baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n iflas etmeleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda baz\u0131 devletlerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemeyeceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131. Bu durumun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda \u2018Senaryo 2\u2019 alt\u0131nda incelemi\u015ftim: K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen bir ekonomi ve artan i\u015fsizlik. T\u0131pk\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizde oldu\u011fu gibi. Umar\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez.<\/p>\n<p>Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan ilgin\u00e7 olan ise s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim yaz\u0131mdaki Senaryo 1\u2019in bir alt kolu. \u015e\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 parasal geni\u015flemeye gidiyor. ECB de sonunda banka iflaslar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemenin ba\u015fka yolu kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin devlet tahvillerine garanti veriyor. Bu garantinin gere\u011fi olarak da baz\u0131 tahvilleri alarak piyasaya para \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu senaryoda dikkat ederseniz talep artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6nlem olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler ya \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden de yava\u015f toparlan\u0131yorlar ya da yerlerinde say\u0131yorlar. \u00d6te yandan sisteme yeni giren eurolar ve dolarlar bizim gibi \u00fclkelere akacak. Bu, liran\u0131n \u00fczerinde de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 demek. \u00d6te yandan da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bir s\u00fcredir devam eden h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinin temel nedenlerinden birinin (s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi) belirgin olarak s\u00fcrmesi demek.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin yava\u015f toparlanmas\u0131 ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 olumsuz etkiler. Liran\u0131n de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131na girmesinin de etkisi ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde olur. Ancak lira zaten \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. Ek olarak, lirada tekrar olu\u015facak de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131na Merkez Bankas\u0131 direnir. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda yava\u015f toparlanmadan ihracat\u0131m\u0131za gelecek olumsuz etki bir miktar azal\u0131r. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim ko\u015fullar, kredi geni\u015flemesinin h\u0131zl\u0131 olmas\u0131na izin veren ko\u015fullar. Peki, kredi talebi de hi\u00e7bir \u015fey olmam\u0131\u015f gibi artar m\u0131? Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve b\u00fcy\u00fck tutarl\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l geli\u015fecekleri, ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcvenin nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131. Bu da hem ABD\u2019de hem de Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanacaklar ile yak\u0131ndan ilgili.<\/p>\n<p>En ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir iyimser senaryoda (gelecek yaz\u0131larda kullanmak \u00fczere Senaryo 1a diyeyim), dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki ve 2012\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131za ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcven belirleyecek. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ko\u015fullar temkinli tavr\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda kalacak. Ne kadar alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 ise ortadaki sis perdesinin kal\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Fatih \u00d6ZATAY<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1161502866\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ko\u015fullar temkinli tavr\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda kalacak. Birka\u00e7 liderin ve ekonomi hakk\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini saplant\u0131 haline getirerek asla uzla\u015fmaya yana\u015fmayan politikac\u0131lar\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5128\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}