{"id":5122,"date":"2011-09-15T09:21:17","date_gmt":"2011-09-15T06:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5122"},"modified":"2011-09-15T09:28:29","modified_gmt":"2011-09-15T06:28:29","slug":"yatirimlar-ve-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yatirimlar-ve-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Milli gelir verilerini neden bu\u00a0kadar\u00a0\u00f6nemsedi\u011fimiz san\u0131r\u0131m ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Di\u011fer g\u00f6stergeler ekonominin farkl\u0131 k\u00f6\u015felerini izliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile resmin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Resmin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc ancak milli gelir hesab\u0131nda kapsan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2936055068\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin epey \u00fczerinde gelmesi bu duruma\u00a0iyi\u00a0\u00f6rnektir. Medyada \u201cs\u00fcrpriz, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131\u201d gibi ifadeler kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce yay\u0131nlanan g\u00f6stergelerde b\u00f6ylesine y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin i\u015faretlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Tahminciler \u00e7ok say\u0131da veriye bak\u0131yor: Sanayi \u00fcretimi, d\u0131\u015f ticaret, turist say\u0131s\u0131, otomobil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, elektrik t\u00fcketimi, g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergeleri, b\u00fct\u00e7e vs. Bunlardan hareketle ana talep kalemleri hesaplan\u0131yor. Toplam\u0131 milli geliri veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu g\u00f6stergeler t\u00fcketim ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret tahminleri i\u00e7in nispeten makul sonu\u00e7lar veriyor. Ama \u00e7ok kritik bir harcama kalemi i\u00e7in yetersiz kalabiliyor: \u00d6zel kesim yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131. Bu kez de s\u00fcrprizin kayna\u011f\u0131nda onlar yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>De\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7erken iki y\u00f6ntem \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. En \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan\u0131 basit y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimi buluyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim y\u00fczde 9.2, kamu t\u00fcketimi y\u00fczde 7.9, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar y\u00fczde 28.9 artt\u0131 diyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00f6ntemde harcama kalemleri aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck farklar\u0131 kayboluyor. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketimin harcamada pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 70, kamu t\u00fcketiminin y\u00fczde 10, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 20 mertebesinde. Neticede b\u00fcy\u00fcmede hangisinin daha etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sorunu \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131\u201d y\u00f6ntemi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcyor. Harcama kaleminin de\u011fi\u015fimi milli gelirdeki pay\u0131 ile \u00e7arp\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe bakal\u0131m. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketimin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 6.3 puan, kamu t\u00fcketiminin katk\u0131s\u0131 0.8 puan, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 6.9 puan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-902329387\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en \u00e7ok katk\u0131y\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f. Onu \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim izliyor. Kamu t\u00fcketiminin katk\u0131s\u0131 ihmal edilebilir d\u00fczeyde kal\u0131yor. Bu arada ihracat\u0131n sadece 0.1 puan, ithalat\u0131n ise eksi 5.2 puan katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyelim.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na girelim. Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 0.3 puanda kal\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar 6.6 puan, \u00f6zel kesim makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 5.7 puan katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Velhas\u0131l \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda patlama b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru yat\u0131r\u0131mlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u0131saca de\u011ferlendirelim. 2008-9 resesyonundan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 tetikledi. Toparlanman\u0131n ilk a\u015famas\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00fczeyi geride kald\u0131. 2010\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin katk\u0131s\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2182605316\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci a\u015famada b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ta\u015f\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimi ge\u00e7ti. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte aradaki fark 0.8 puana y\u00fckseldi (\u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m 7.1 puan; \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim 6.3 puan).<\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131 mevcut konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn en olumlu yan\u0131d\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim kapasitesidir. Verimlili\u011fi besler. \u0130stihdam\u0131 te\u015fvik eder. Talep enflasyonu riskini azalt\u0131r. K\u00fcresel resesyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir mi? Bundan sonra ne olur? Maalesef cevaplar gecikecek. Dersler ba\u015flamadan y\u0131ll\u0131k izin kullan\u0131yorum. \u0130ki hafta yaz\u0131 yok. Yeni bir kriz patlamazsa buradan devam ederiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Milli gelir verilerini neden bu\u00a0kadar\u00a0\u00f6nemsedi\u011fimiz san\u0131r\u0131m ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Di\u011fer g\u00f6stergeler ekonominin farkl\u0131 k\u00f6\u015felerini izliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile resmin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Resmin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc ancak milli gelir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5122\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}