{"id":51211,"date":"2017-09-13T22:27:57","date_gmt":"2017-09-13T19:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51211"},"modified":"2017-09-13T22:27:57","modified_gmt":"2017-09-13T19:27:57","slug":"cetin-unsalan-alacaklar-yeraltina-mi-indi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-alacaklar-yeraltina-mi-indi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Alacaklar yeralt\u0131na m\u0131 indi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ad\u0131na son derece tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve ne yaz\u0131k ki ger\u00e7ek anlamda kimsenin g\u00fcndeminde yok. A\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapan bir anket \u015firketi de\u011fil, T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi (TBB) Risk Merkezi&#8230; Ne diyor?<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2797291380\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2017 Ocak \u2013 A\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z i\u015flemi yap\u0131lan \u00e7ek tutar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 37,5, adedinde de y\u00fczde 42,4 oran\u0131nda azalma ya\u015fand\u0131. Son derece b\u00fcy\u00fck ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 oranlardan bahsediyoruz. Bunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcndeminde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131 ise hayretler i\u00e7inde izliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc istatistik baz\u0131nda eri\u015filen bu oranlar\u0131n, reel piyasalar\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini biliyoruz. Piyasada \u00e7ok ciddi bir nakit s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ve tahsil\u00e2t problemi ya\u015fanmaya devam ediyor. Ger\u00e7ek bu iken, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7eklerdeki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sorgulanmas\u0131 gerekmez mi?<\/p>\n<p>Daha iki ay \u00f6nce D\u00fcnya Gazetesi\u2019ne r\u00f6portaj veren Zeynep Bodur Okyay, piyasadaki nakit s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015fik\u00e2yet ederek, barter tekliflerinin g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemedi mi? 500 bin TL cirolu tesisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n bile takas talebiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan dem vurmad\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Hangi sekt\u00f6re bakarsan\u0131z bak\u0131n; zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6deme problemi ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Ge\u00e7tim sekt\u00f6rleri Maliye ya da SGK bile alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahsil edemedi\u011finden yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya yap\u0131land\u0131rma yapmad\u0131 m\u0131? Buna ra\u011fmen tahakkuk\/tahsil\u00e2t oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinmiyor mu?<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ok k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce TESK Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bendevi Paland\u00f6ken, yap\u0131land\u0131rmalarda \u00f6deme kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6teleme istemedi mi? O halde b\u00f6ylesine net bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte ni\u00e7in kimse bunu sorgulam\u0131yor; anlamakta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck \u00e7ekiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Rakamlar\u0131 ve oranlar\u0131 ilk g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmde akl\u0131ma Rahmetli Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 S\u00fcleyman Demirel\u2019in bir s\u00f6z\u00fc geldi: \u201cMeseleleri mesele etmezseniz; ortada mesele kalmaz.\u201d G\u00f6r\u00fcyorum ki durum tam da bu s\u00f6ze uygun bir \u015fekilde hayat buluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa \u00e7ok iyi biliyoruz ki \u00f6deme problemi, artarak devam ediyor. O zaman bu oranlar nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131? Bir ihtimal, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131za \u00f6nlem olarak getirilen kare kod uygulamas\u0131 nedeniyle piyasadaki \u00e7ekin tercih a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azald\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2126963524\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011fer bir ihtimale g\u00f6re \u00e7ek yerine senet tercih edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Zira TBB Risk Merkezi\u2019nin bu kay\u0131tlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, 2017 Ocak \u2013 Haziran d\u00f6neminde protesto edilen senet tutar\u0131nda, yani \u00fczerinde yaz\u0131l\u0131 mebla\u011f esas al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 16\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yine bir ihtimal KGF g\u00fcvencesiyle sunuldu\u011fu belirtilen kredilerle, bu \u00f6demelerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. \u00c7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k da olsa, orada da yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in verilen kredinin bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeye kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Fakat dedi\u011fim gibi, bunu \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bulmuyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bence en kuvvetli iki ihtimal \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Reel sekt\u00f6r \u00e7ok uzun zamand\u0131r zaten kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z olan \u00e7ekleri, yeni ve daha uzun vadelerle de\u011fi\u015ftirerek bir y\u00f6ntem uyguluyor. Bu da zaten istatistiklere yans\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat olas\u0131l\u0131klardan birincisi vadelerdeki uzama. Zaten 12 ile 24 ay aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen vadeli al\u0131mlarda, ortalama 18 ay vade uygulayan sekt\u00f6rler, belki de ortalamay\u0131 24 aya do\u011fru ilerletti. Bu da riski b\u00fcy\u00fcterek \u00f6teledi\u011fimiz anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-310210719\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci ihtimal ise tekrar piyasan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k hesap sisteme ge\u00e7mi\u015f olabilece\u011fidir. Bu hem kay\u0131td\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonominin tetiklenmesi sonucunu do\u011furur; hem de alacak problemlerinde \u00e7ek-senet mafyas\u0131n\u0131n hortlamas\u0131na neden olur.<\/p>\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131nca \u00f6nemli bir problemin ayak seslerini duyar gibiyim. Fakat g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum ki herkes kendi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle bile ba\u011fda\u015fmayan oranlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcne kap\u0131lmay\u0131 tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yetkililerin bir an \u00f6nce istatistiklerdeki uyar\u0131y\u0131 alg\u0131lay\u0131p, konuyu mercek alt\u0131na almas\u0131 gerekiyor. Aksi takdirde \u00e7ok \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fc olaylar ya\u015famam\u0131z, daha \u00f6nceki tecr\u00fcbelerimiz \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015ften bile de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ad\u0131na son derece tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve ne yaz\u0131k ki ger\u00e7ek anlamda kimsenin g\u00fcndeminde yok. A\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapan bir anket \u015firketi de\u011fil, T\u00fcrkiye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-51211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51211\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}