{"id":51139,"date":"2017-09-08T16:01:25","date_gmt":"2017-09-08T13:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=51139"},"modified":"2017-09-08T16:50:37","modified_gmt":"2017-09-08T13:50:37","slug":"draghinin-aciklamalari-borsa-ve-euro-dolar-paritesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/draghinin-aciklamalari-borsa-ve-euro-dolar-paritesi\/","title":{"rendered":"Draghi&#8217;nin A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, Borsa ve Euro-Dolar Paritesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>D\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddelerinden biri Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (AMB) faiz karar\u0131 ve AMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi&#8217;nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yd\u0131. AMB faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmezken, parasal geni\u015fleme program\u0131n\u0131 da her ay 60 milyar Euro&#8217;luk tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 \u015feklinde oldu\u011fu gibi b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/h2>\n<p>Bu geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda Euro-dolar paritesi h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 gitti. Do\u011fal olarak, parasal geni\u015fleme devam etmesine ra\u011fmen neden Euro yukar\u0131 gitti? sorusu g\u00fcndeme geldi. Bunun temel sebebi, AMB&#8217;n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini %1.9&#8217;dan %2.2&#8217;ye revize etmesidir ve Avrupa i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131d\u0131r. Draghi&#8217;nin konu\u015fmas\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7eken ba\u015fl\u0131klar \u015f\u00f6yleydi;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3108283103\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ama AMB&#8217;N\u0131n tahminlerine a\u015famal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/li>\n<li>AB b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2017&#8217;nin 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklenirken, beklentilerden y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu belirtildi ve 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini %1,9\u2019dan %2,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltildi. Bu arada 2018 ve 2019 enflasyon tahminleri de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilince reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi daha y\u00fcksek bir rakam olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>Varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin karar daha sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Fakat Draghi&#8217;Nin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 bu konuda pek de aceleci olmayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, kur konusunda da endi\u015felerini dile getirdi. Euro-dolar paritesindeki dalgalanman\u0131n belirsizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla parasal geni\u015flemenin daralt\u0131lmas\u0131 veya bitirilmesi \u00a026 Ekim veya 14 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131na kalm\u0131\u015f oldu. Ama eninde sonunda bu durum ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi i\u00e7in Euro yukar\u0131 gitti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadede Euro&#8217;da y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r, fakat bug\u00fcn Atilla Ye\u015filada paranaliz sitesinde yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131da, Euro&#8217;nun terse d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda da Trump etkisi var (<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Clmmd8eEtl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 okumak i\u00e7in buray\u0131 t\u0131klayabilirsiniz.<\/a>). \u00a0Yaln\u0131z dikkat edilmesi gereken konu, Atilla Ye\u015filada&#8217;n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri do\u011fru temellere dayansa da orta vadeli bir perspektif olarak okunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Temmuz ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimimiz a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve ayl\u0131k bazda %2.3 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda da %14.5 art\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 beklentilerden y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, BIST-100 endeksi negatif bir y\u00f6n \u00e7iziyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 an itibariyle (15:45) BIST-100 endeksi g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda en \u00e7ok de\u011fer kaybeden borsa olmu\u015f.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/dunya-8-eylul-2017.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-51140\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/dunya-8-eylul-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/dunya-8-eylul-2017.png 614w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/dunya-8-eylul-2017-300x232.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bir yandan reel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin beklentilerden \u00e7ok daha olumlu bir seyir g\u00f6zlenirken ve di\u011fer borsalarda genel anlamda daha yatay bir hareket varken, BIST-100 endeksi neden geriliyor? A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik endeksin 5 dakikal\u0131k hareketlerini veriyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-5dk-8-eylul-2017.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-51141\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-5dk-8-eylul-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-5dk-8-eylul-2017.png 570w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-5dk-8-eylul-2017-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Endeks g\u00fcne 109750 seviyelerinden ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 108150 seviyesine kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 1600 puan de\u011fer kaybetti. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler genelde merdiven basama\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde kademeli oldu. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda hacmin \u00e7ok artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ortalama seviyelerde odlu\u011funu \u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD&#8217;deki Zarrab davas\u0131 konusundaki geli\u015fmelerin olumsuz etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z &#8220;Pis kokular geliyor&#8221; \u015feklinde a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131nca ve bir bankan\u0131n daha bu soru\u015fturmalarda ad\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi haberi yay\u0131l\u0131nca, ne olur ne olmaz \u015feklinde bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olu\u015ftu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, son gerilemeyi biraz da konjonkt\u00fcrel olarak ele almak laz\u0131m. \u00a0Borsan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise, daha \u00f6nce sizlere &#8220;ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi %75 olas\u0131l\u0131kla bitti&#8221; mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fimden bu yana genelde yatay dalgal\u0131 bir hareket izliyoruz. 110.750 seviyesindeki direncin \u015fu ana kadar a\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da ana trendin zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funun bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-gunluk-8-eylul-2017.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-51142\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-gunluk-8-eylul-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-gunluk-8-eylul-2017.png 570w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/BIST-gunluk-8-eylul-2017-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere endeks yeniden 110.500 seviyelerini denerken,\u00a0TKE (Talep Konsantrasyon E\u011frisi) 80 seviyesine bile ula\u015fmad\u0131. Bu durum piyasan\u0131n bir s\u00fcre karars\u0131z kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olabilir. D\u00fcn de i\u015flem miktar\u0131 1.3 milyar lotu ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen, endeks y\u00fckselemedi. Doaly\u0131s\u0131yla \u015fu an borsa i\u00e7in yapabilece\u011fimiz en iyi tahmin, 106.500 ile 110.250 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket edece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektir. Fakat 106.500 alt\u0131nda yeniden bir kapan\u0131\u015f olursa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivme kazanaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu a\u015famada fazla risk almamak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 dilerim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4040487039\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u00d6NEML\u0130 NOT<\/strong>: Arakanda zulme u\u011frayan insanlara yard\u0131m i\u00e7in 2868&#8217;e ARAKAN yaz\u0131p mesaj att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda 10 TL ba\u011f\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015f oluyorsunuz. (KIZILAY)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddelerinden biri Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (AMB) faiz karar\u0131 ve AMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi&#8217;nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yd\u0131. AMB faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmezken, parasal geni\u015fleme program\u0131n\u0131 da&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[739,1507,1464,1465,769,1497,752,753,1496,715],"class_list":["post-51139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-altin-uzman-yorumlari","tag-altin-yukselir-mi","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51139\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}