{"id":5105,"date":"2011-09-14T15:24:34","date_gmt":"2011-09-14T12:24:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5105"},"modified":"2011-09-14T15:24:45","modified_gmt":"2011-09-14T12:24:45","slug":"ozur-dileriz-fazla-buyuduk-merak-etmeyin-seneye-buzuluruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ozur-dileriz-fazla-buyuduk-merak-etmeyin-seneye-buzuluruz\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6z\u00fcr dileriz, fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck; merak etmeyin seneye b\u00fcz\u00fcl\u00fcr\u00fcz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>TUHAF bir durum var. Ba\u015fta ABD ve AB olmak \u00fczere \u00fclkelerin \u00e7o\u011fu, milli gelirlerini artt\u0131ramamaktan \u015fik\u00e2yet ederken, biz beklentilerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131k diye hedefi tutturamam\u0131\u015f hale d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1936398162\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcremedi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in adeta \u201cmazeret\u201d beyan ediyoruz. Ekonomi \u00c7ar\u0131 Babacan, daha ge\u00e7en hafta, \u201cseneye in\u015fallah % 5\u2019in alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcr\u00fcz\u201d diye tahmin veya temennisini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Pek tabii bu \u00e7eli\u015fkinin bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 var. Yoksa ekonominin bir numaral\u0131 hedefi olan \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 diye kimse \u00fcz\u00fclmez. \u00dcstelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte, i\u015fsizlik de azal\u0131yor. Hem de \u201cbordrolu\u201d olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131, bordrosuz olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlardan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. Demek ki; i\u015fler iyi gidiyor.<br \/>\n<strong>CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK KAYGILANDIRIYOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Peki, s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 nerede? Bunun kayna\u011f\u0131 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc azalmayan cari a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bunu hepimiz biliyoruz. Her ne kadar son ay\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir miktar gerileme g\u00f6sterdi ise de, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda milli gelirinin % 10 kadar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu oranla T\u00fcrkiye, m\u00fcflis Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bile \u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u00fcnya birincisidir. Bu sebepten dolay\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ikincisi olman\u0131n tad\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karam\u0131yoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc biliyoruz ki; bu y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na ula\u015fmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayan da \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi hedeflenen\u201d cari a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>KR\u0130Z, DENKS\u0130ZL\u0130KTEN \u00c7IKAR<\/strong><br \/>\nD\u00fcnyada, birincisi 2009\u2019da ya\u015fanan \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn ikincisi yolda m\u0131d\u0131r tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ekonomi g\u00fcndeminin birinci s\u0131ras\u0131nda bulunuyor. Krizler daima denksizlikten (veya dengesizlikten) \u00e7\u0131kar. Ekonomilerde \u00fczerinde en \u00e7ok durulan iki denklik vard\u0131r. Birincisi \u201ckamu kesimi gelir gider denkli\u011fi\u201d ikincisi de \u201c\u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz gelir gider denkli\u011fi\u201d veya bilinen ad\u0131yla \u201ccari i\u015flemler dengesi\u201d dir. E\u011fer bir \u00fclkede her iki denge de \u201ca\u00e7\u0131k\u201d veriyorsa, o \u00fclke ciddi \u015fekilde hastad\u0131r denir. Mesela Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n durumu budur. Bunlardan biri bozuksa, \u00fclke ekonomisi yine hastad\u0131r ama durum vahim de\u011fildir. Mesela Japonya\u2019n\u0131n cari i\u015flem fazlas\u0131 vard\u0131r ama kamu kesimi dengesi bozuktur. Bilinen ad\u0131yla b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n milli gelirinin % 8,3\u2019\u00fcne ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bir zamanlar bu denksizliklere \u201cikiz a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d denirdi. Yani, sanki bunlar\u0131n ikisi mutlaka birlikte olu\u015fur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sonra anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 ki; bunlar ikiz filan de\u011filmi\u015f. \u0130kiz olan, kamu kesiminin de\u011fil, \u00fclkenin tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 imi\u015f. Bu da zaten bir totolojidir. Yani ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fin, sanki bir sebep-sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisini g\u00f6steriyormu\u015f gibi farkl\u0131 kelimelerle s\u00f6ylenmesidir.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI GELECEK YIL DE\u011eERLENECEK<\/strong><br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z, \u201cT\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 gelecek y\u0131l de\u011ferlenecek\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunmu\u015f. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cbiz, ba\u015fka \u00fclkeler gibi para basm\u0131yoruz\u201d demi\u015f. TL gelecek y\u0131l de\u011ferlenebilir. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc bug\u00fcnden yanl\u0131\u015f bulmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Ancak iki husus var. Birincisi; cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkeye d\u00f6viz girer, bunun sonucunda dolan\u0131mdaki ulusal para miktar\u0131 artar. Bu da bir nevi para basmakt\u0131r. \u0130kincisi, TL de\u011ferlenecekse, faraza cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcz\u00fclen ekonomiyle mutlak olarak d\u00fc\u015fse bile \u201coransal olarak\u201d nas\u0131l azalacakt\u0131r?<br \/>\nSon S\u00f6z: Ne y\u00e2rdan, ne serden vazge\u00e7emeyen, ikisini de kaybedebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ege CANSEN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TUHAF bir durum var. Ba\u015fta ABD ve AB olmak \u00fczere \u00fclkelerin \u00e7o\u011fu, milli gelirlerini artt\u0131ramamaktan \u015fik\u00e2yet ederken, biz beklentilerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131k diye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5105"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5105\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}