{"id":50677,"date":"2017-08-01T20:21:50","date_gmt":"2017-08-01T17:21:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=50677"},"modified":"2017-08-01T20:21:50","modified_gmt":"2017-08-01T17:21:50","slug":"cetin-unsalan-kim-dogru-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-kim-dogru-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Kim do\u011fru s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi g\u00fcnl\u00fck gazetelerin bilmece k\u00f6\u015fesine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ayn\u0131 eser, farkl\u0131 notalarla \u00e7al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bir tarafta ekonomi kurmaylar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekle ilgili y\u00fczde 7\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden, artacak i\u015f hacminden bahsediyorlar.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3140032665\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S\u00f6ylentiye g\u00f6re ihracatta patlama yaratacakm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. Ger\u00e7i bundan memnun olurum ama daha \u00e7ok sat\u0131p, daha az kazanacaksak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki i\u015fletmeler bunu ne oranda s\u0131rtlayabilecek tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu i\u015fletmelere KGF yani Kredi Garanti Fonu \u00fczerinden kredilendirmenin devam edece\u011fini Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ba\u015fdan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Cemil Ertem taraf\u0131ndan ifade edildi. Bu arada yeri gelmi\u015fken, Be\u015ftepe\u2019de san\u0131r\u0131m hi\u00e7 dan\u0131\u015fman yok. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hepsi ba\u015fdan\u0131\u015fman&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Neyse konuyu da\u011f\u0131tmayal\u0131m, Ertem, KGF\u2019nin ge\u00e7ici bir ara\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u015eimdi burada dural\u0131m. KGF zaten vard\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmete ait bir kurum de\u011fil. Aksine KOSGEB ve TOBB a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hissesiyle bizzat reel sekt\u00f6re ait ve bankalar \u00fczerinden kullan\u0131lan kredilere kefil olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi var.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat son uygulamada kefil olma \u015fartlar\u0131 gev\u015fetildi. E\u011fer bu bir ekonomi program\u0131 dahilinde yap\u0131lsa, yani ba\u015f\u0131 sonu, sapmas\u0131, riski ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belli olsa durum de\u011fi\u015febilir. Ama bir ulufe arac\u0131 gibi kullan\u0131ld\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kimin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belli olmayan bu kredilerin, hangi ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusunda da bilgimiz yok.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi Ertem\u2019in s\u00f6yledi\u011fi ara\u00e7 tan\u0131m\u0131, normal g\u00f6revine uygun hali mi, piyasaya para sal\u0131p \u00e7ok da sonunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeden ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik kalk\u0131nma \u00f6z\u00fcrl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan hali mi?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eayet b\u00f6yleyse ve bankalara kredi verme konusunda ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorlayarak bask\u0131 yap\u0131lacaksa, d\u0131\u015f kaynak gelmedi\u011fine g\u00f6re KGF\u2019deki para t\u00fckenene kadar bir uygulama m\u0131 olacak, yoksa Merkez Bankas\u0131 fazla mesai mi yapacak?<\/p>\n<p>Zira e\u011fer b\u00f6yleyse Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131nda enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fene kadar parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi ifadesi ne anlama geliyor? Piyasaya para sal\u0131p, i\u00e7 piyasay\u0131 hareketlendirseniz bir dert, mali disiplini bozsan\u0131z bir dert.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2543261359\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Esasen zor bir durum ve karar vermek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bug\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7maz\u0131 olu\u015fturan tablo, y\u0131llarca kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z paray\u0131 harcayan, daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc bor\u00e7lanan, bu arada da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur politikas\u0131yla reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ld\u00fcren bir \u00fclkenin sakal b\u0131y\u0131k tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gibi.<\/p>\n<p>Kritik bir soru daha var. Diyelim ki Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na uygulama talimat\u0131 verdiniz ve parasal geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcn\u00fcz. Sonu\u00e7ta bu ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin karar\u0131&#8230; Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak tablodan Merkez Bankas\u0131 m\u0131 sorumlu olacak, iktidar m\u0131? Bunun da yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden \u00f6\u011frenirsek iyi olur.<\/p>\n<p>Yine diyelim ki piyasaya krediler yoluyla para s\u00fcrd\u00fcn\u00fcz. Reel sekt\u00f6r cephesinde 220 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan bir d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 ve \u00f6deme zorunlulu\u011fu, t\u00fcketicide 24 milyon icra dosyas\u0131 var. Sizce bu nakit piyasay\u0131 hareketlendirmeye mi yarar, bor\u00e7 i\u00e7in dolar almaya m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer dolar almaya yararsa, piyasaya yarar\u0131 olmaz ve likidite problemi s\u00fcrer. Piyasaya akarsa da enflasyon hedefinizi tutturamazs\u0131n\u0131z. \u015eimdi bir tarafta ekonomi y\u00f6netimi piyasay\u0131 rahatlataca\u011f\u0131ndan bahsediyor, \u00f6te tarafta Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fmeden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n dozunu artt\u0131rabilece\u011finden. \u015eimdi soru \u015fu: Kim do\u011fru s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-476922554\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc ne biliyor musunuz? Ortada dola\u015fan hamasete kar\u015f\u0131n halen planl\u0131 bir ekonomiden eser yok. Ay\u0131kla pirincin ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131&#8230; Ne zaman derseniz, TESK Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Paland\u00f6ken\u2019in ifadesiyle 80 milyon n\u00fcfusta 33 milyon kredi kart\u0131 bor\u00e7lusu var. Onun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 siz verin. \u015eimdi mi, film bitince mi? Zira faturay\u0131 sonu\u00e7ta \u00f6deyecek iktidar de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fc? \u00d6nce y\u0131llarca yap\u0131lan hata itiraf edilecek; sorun t\u00fcm \u00e7\u0131plakl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla fatura \u00f6demek zorunda olundu\u011fu da insanlara anlat\u0131larak ortaya konulacak ve 3, 5 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k planl\u0131 bir ekonomik modelle hatam\u0131z\u0131 telafi edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>Tabi kritik soru en son geliyor? Bu kadar herkesin \u00f6tekile\u015ftirildi\u011fi bir ortamda, ger\u00e7ek bir inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve milli seferberlik ruhu nas\u0131l yarat\u0131lacak? Yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bulan beri gelsin.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi g\u00fcnl\u00fck gazetelerin bilmece k\u00f6\u015fesine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ayn\u0131 eser, farkl\u0131 notalarla \u00e7al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bir tarafta ekonomi kurmaylar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekle ilgili y\u00fczde 7\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden, artacak i\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-50677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50677\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}