{"id":5066,"date":"2011-09-14T09:12:43","date_gmt":"2011-09-14T06:12:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5066"},"modified":"2011-09-14T09:20:55","modified_gmt":"2011-09-14T06:20:55","slug":"yavasladik-ama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yavasladik-ama\/","title":{"rendered":"Yava\u015flad\u0131k ama"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu s\u0131ralarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u011flam\u0131nda\u00a0 zor zamanlar ge\u00e7iriyor. Genel bir durgunluk beklentisi var. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 bu beklentiyi daha da \u00f6teye ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p, daralmaya kadar g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\u00a0 En az\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir yava\u015flama konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcne girece\u011fi beklentisi \u00e7ok yayg\u0131n.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4075920900\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son veriler de bu beklentileri do\u011frular y\u00f6nde geliyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak, \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131mda da i\u015faret etti\u011fim gibi, yava\u015flama \u00fclkeler ve \u00fclke gruplar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yeknesak, tek tip bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc izlemiyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck marjl\u0131, daha vurgulu oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k i\u00e7inde bizim de yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkler grubunda yava\u015flama \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 zaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan bir grup. Bunun \u00fczerine bir de bu yeni yava\u015flama dalgas\u0131 binince bunlar adeta resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na geldiler. D\u00fcnyada bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme korkusunun yay\u0131l\u0131yor ve t\u00fcm beklentilerin bu y\u00f6nde yeniden belirleniyor olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni bu.<\/p>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde hem b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek hem de son d\u00f6nemdeki yava\u015flama ivmesi daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Ulusal \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 bunlarda da yava\u015fl\u0131yor.\u00a0 B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla daha da yava\u015flayacaklar. Ancak, bunlar resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131ndalar ve\u00a0 bu \u00fclkelerde daralma, gerileme riski yok. Bu durumda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcre, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin\u00a0 \u00e7ekip, s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fi belki de geli\u015fmi\u015f partnerlerinin yeniden resesyon \u00e7ukuruna yuvarlanamalr\u0131n\u0131 engelleyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde, \u00f6rt\u00fck de olsa, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcr\u00fckleme gibi bir misyonu y\u00fcklendikleri anlam\u0131na geliyor bu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla\u00a0 bu \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 her zamankinden daha yo\u011fun bir ilgiyle izleniyor. .<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler grubunda yer al\u0131yor. Bizim krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde sergiledi\u011fimiz b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme deseni ile olduk\u00e7a uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131k. Bu tempo 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda da devam etti.. Y\u0131l\u0131n birinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 11.6 gibi d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde de y\u00fcksek say\u0131lacak bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. H\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fcnyadan ayr\u0131\u015fan bir durum olmad\u0131. Hemen herkes kriz sonras\u0131n\u0131n ilk y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Biz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>Bu noktadan sonra hepimizi bir merak ald\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir yava\u015flama, hatta geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde bir resesyon beklentisi olu\u015furken T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde nas\u0131l bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 sergileyece\u011fi merak ediliyordu. Genel beklentiler\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda da d\u00fcnyadaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme deseninden kopmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Tahminler b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 6-7 civar\u0131na gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-611251059\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Merak giderildi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler bir yan\u0131yla beklentileri do\u011frularken bir yan\u0131yla da\u00a0 tahminleri yan\u0131ltt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin\u00a0 d\u00fcnyadaki genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle uyumlu hareket etti\u011fi ve yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Yeni b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.6 h\u0131z\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olan ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 8.8 d\u00fczeyine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zndaki 1.6 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f asl\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde esasl\u0131 bir yava\u015flama oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130\u015fin\u00a0 beklenti ile uyumlu olan par\u00e7as\u0131 bu.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te uyumsuz say\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken\u00a0 bir nokta daha var. Yava\u015flamas\u0131na yava\u015flad\u0131k ama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki gerileme beklentilerin epeyce alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, genel beklenti b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6-7 civar\u0131na kadar gerileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken fiili durum b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 8.8 d\u00fczeyine kadar geriledi.\u00a0 Bu durumda, yava\u015flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ekonominin hala uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalamam\u0131z\u0131n (y\u00fczde 4.6) \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u00a0 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2218871066\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z resesyon tehdidi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in de iyi bir haber. S\u00f6z konusu y\u00fczde 8.8 oran\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fcnyada bir kez daha \u00c7in&#8217;in arkas\u0131ndan ikinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor. Bu performans bu d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya ekonomisini ta\u015f\u0131ma misyonuna ciddi bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu s\u0131ralarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u011flam\u0131nda\u00a0 zor zamanlar ge\u00e7iriyor. Genel bir durgunluk beklentisi var. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 bu beklentiyi daha da \u00f6teye ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p, daralmaya kadar g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\u00a0 En&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}