{"id":5060,"date":"2011-09-14T09:18:02","date_gmt":"2011-09-14T06:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5060"},"modified":"2011-09-14T09:18:12","modified_gmt":"2011-09-14T06:18:12","slug":"ekonomik-gorunum-ve-doviz-kuru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonomik-gorunum-ve-doviz-kuru\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve D\u00f6viz Kuru"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Muhtemelen bu ama\u00e7la detaylar\u0131n pek g\u00fcndeme gelmedi\u011fini dikkate almakta yarar var. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladaki enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 8.8 olmu\u015f, temmuz ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 da 5.319 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyine gerilemi\u015f. \u00d6yleyse sevinelim! Ekonomide \u0131s\u0131nma tehlikesi g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor ise T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011feri \u00fczerindeki olumsuz bask\u0131lar azalacak! Rahat uyuyabiliriz, risk alabiliriz!.. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde ne olup bitit\u011fi ve detaylar \u00f6nemli de\u011fil!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-759537330\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Detaylara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminde ve a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ciddi bir gerilemenni olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, mevsimlik oldu\u011fu bilinen hizmet gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f sayesinde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bunun ge\u00e7ici bir durum olabilece\u011fini ve e\u011fer ge\u00e7eci olmaz ise makro ekonomi cephesinde ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fini hesaba katmak gerekiyor, ancak bu ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ili\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmak d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka bir \u015fey d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnemeyenlerden pek beklememek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in iki se\u00e7enek var. Olumlu se\u00e7enekte d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi artmaya devam ediyor, fakat ihracat daha tempolu bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in gerek d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, gerekse cari a\u00e7\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor, hem de ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcr, istihdam artarken iken k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; Avrupa ile Ortado\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika&#8217;da ya\u015fananlar olumlu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi engelliyor. Di\u011fer senaryo ise iyi \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemiyor. Zira cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi i\u00e7ni d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, emtia piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla y\u00fckselmemesi gerekiyor; bu sayede hem d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131k kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak gerileyebilsin. Fakat bu senaryoda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi unutmak, i\u015fsizlikte ve sorunlu kredilerde ya\u015fanacak art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almak gerekiyor. E\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131 gerilemez ve y\u00fckselir ise s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olma ihtimali art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011ferine ili\u015fkin tahminlerde hangi senaryonun ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayan ilk senaryoda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen geri almas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Fakat ikinci senaryoda durum \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 ve belirsizlik \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek; zira T\u00fcrkiye riskine ili\u015fkin alg\u0131 dalgal\u0131 bir \u015fekild olumsuzla\u015fabilir; net d\u00f6viz borcu olanlar \u00f6zkaynakar\u0131 eridik\u00e7e panikleme a\u015famas\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcklenebilir ve onlar\u0131 sakin tutmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lanlar zaman i\u00e7inde yetersiz kalabilir. Ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi\u011fi, i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sorunlu kredilerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale gelebilir. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde ya\u015fanacak bir parasal geni\u015fleme 2003-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkinin tam aksini tetikleyebilir. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist etkisi T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesi sayesinde engellenmi\u015f, \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme olarak g\u00f6sterilmi\u015f, g\u00fcn kurtar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu kez \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmayacak ve hatta gerilemeler ya\u015fanacak. T\u00fcrkiye riskine ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lar\u0131 olumlu \u00e7izgide tutmak pek kolay olmayacak, d\u00f6viz kurunun olmas\u0131 gereken de\u011ferden sapmas\u0131 da \u00f6ncekine g\u00f6re aksi y\u00f6nde olabilecek&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgin\u00e7 bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7iyoruz, Merkez Bankas\u0131 geleneksel olmayan bir \u015fekilde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nce s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131, sonra da aniden gev\u015fetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 her ikisini de \u00f6ng\u00f6remedi, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 pek kestiremiyor. E\u011fer T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 mevcut de\u011ferini korur veya de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam eder ise k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri y\u00fckseltmek gerekecek veya T\u00fcrkiye riskine ili\u015fkin beklentilerin olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131 engellenemeyecek. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yeniden de\u011ferlenecek diyerek bu olas\u0131l\u0131ktan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in ka\u00e7\u0131nabilirsiniz! Bunun fark\u0131nda olanlar da risklerini azaltmak ad\u0131na bu son f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir! Dikkatli olun, tahmin ile temenniyi kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131n; aksi takdirde ciddi bedeller \u00f6dersiniz ve birilerini su\u00e7lamak sorununuzun a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyemez&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Muhtemelen bu ama\u00e7la detaylar\u0131n pek g\u00fcndeme gelmedi\u011fini dikkate&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5060\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}