{"id":5057,"date":"2011-09-14T09:16:25","date_gmt":"2011-09-14T06:16:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5057"},"modified":"2011-09-14T09:16:33","modified_gmt":"2011-09-14T06:16:33","slug":"buyumeye-iliskin-senaryolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyumeye-iliskin-senaryolar\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u0130li\u015fkin Senaryolar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son hafta i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131za ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli veriler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00d6nce temmuz ay\u0131na ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi, sonra da y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) de\u011ferlerini \u00f6\u011frendik. De\u011ferlendirmeye GSYH ile ba\u015fl\u0131yorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3673700082\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8.8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck. Ayr\u0131ca, daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 8.9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2010 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 9, y\u00fczde 11 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2011 birinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 11.6 olarak yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncellendi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu de\u011ferler, anketlerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinden y\u00fcksek olsalar da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011filler. Birka\u00e7 nedenle. Birincisi, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte yurti\u00e7inde kredi geni\u015flemesi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131zla devam ediyordu. Toplam kredilerin y\u00fczde 30&#8217;unu olu\u015fturan ve dolar cinsinden \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen yabanc\u0131 para kredilerin ortalama art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda ikinci \u00e7eyrekte bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla azal\u0131\u015f vard\u0131. Ancak toplam kredilerin y\u00fczde 70&#8217;ini olu\u015fturan lira cinsi kredilerin ortalama haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla neredeyse ikiye katlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131: \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 0.35, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ise y\u00fczde 0.69 oran\u0131nda ortalama haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi, 2010&#8217;un sonlar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak lira kontroll\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. B\u00f6ylelikle, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki olumsuz ko\u015fullar nedeniyle kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc gelemeyen ihracata d\u00f6viz kurundan bir miktar destek gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen di\u011fer unsurlarda ise bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli belirleyicilerinden olan ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcvende belirgin bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015fti. Bunun temel nedeni, Avrupa&#8217;daki krizin bu g\u00fcnlerdeki kadar \u015fiddetlenmemi\u015f olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, b\u00fcy\u00fck tutarl\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 bir \u00e7eyrek ya da iki \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla daha olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyecek bir tehlike hen\u00fcz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yap\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m nedenlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, olduk\u00e7a iyimserlerdi: Anketlerden elde edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 7&#8217;ye yakla\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu d\u00fczey bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc, ancak yine de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 bu iyimser d\u00fczeyin de \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonuna gelmek \u00fczereyiz; bu \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme nas\u0131l \u015fekillenmi\u015f olabilir? Elimizde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilk ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin sanayi \u00fcretim verisi var. Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z haftan\u0131n sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlara g\u00f6re beklenenin \u00f6tesinde y\u00fcksek bir \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 var: Temmuz ay\u0131nda (mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) sanayi \u00fcretimi bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 2.7 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Halbuki sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, beklentilerin \u00f6tesinde bir GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki sanayi \u00fcretim verileri bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyorlard\u0131. Oysa temmuz ay\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-860212148\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Temmuz ve a\u011fustos ay\u0131na ait kredi verilerini biliyoruz. Buna g\u00f6re lira cinsi kredilerin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yok: \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte haftal\u0131k ortalama art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.69 iken, temmuz ve a\u011fustosta bu h\u0131z y\u00fczde 0.55 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yabanc\u0131 para kredilerin haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ise ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Kredi cephesinde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisinde fazla bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok k\u0131sacas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ko\u015fullar k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. ABD&#8217;nin beklenenden \u00e7ok daha yava\u015f toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyice belirginle\u015fti ve Avrupa&#8217;daki kriz a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u015fiddetlendi. Bu geli\u015fmelerin eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda kredi arz\u0131 ve talebi \u00fczerine olumsuz etkileri olmas\u0131 beklenir. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama yine de y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek bir d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in iki senaryo<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;da ya\u015fananlar belirsizli\u011fi son derece art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu nedenle, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc yapmak olduk\u00e7a zorla\u015ft\u0131. Yine de iki &#8216;u\u00e7&#8217; senaryo olu\u015fturmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1026224227\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lk &#8216;u\u00e7&#8217; senaryo iyimser bir senaryo. Avrupa&#8217;daki krizin \u015fiddetlenmeyece\u011fini varsayay\u0131m. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, batakl\u0131kta debelenip duran Avrupal\u0131 &#8216;liderlerin&#8217; d\u00fcnyay\u0131 yeniden tehlikeye atmayacak acil kararlar\u0131 (ortak Avrupa tahvili \u00e7\u0131karmak, Avrupa \u0130stikrar Fonu&#8217;nun g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi ve sorunlu \u00fclkelere verilecek desteklerin garip ko\u015fullara ba\u011flanmamas\u0131, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n bankalara parasal destek vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmamas\u0131 gibi) pe\u015fi s\u0131ra alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ve 2012&#8217;de ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00e7ok ABD belirleyecek demektir. Senaryomuz iyimser de olsa fazla &#8216;saf&#8217; olmaya gerek yok; Obama&#8217;n\u0131n yeni istihdam plan\u0131n\u0131n kongreden ge\u00e7meyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yorum. Bu durumda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (FED) kararlar\u0131 d\u00fcnya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n<p>FED eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye giderse, bizim gibi \u00fclkelere akan (s\u0131cak) para daha da artar. Bu da yurti\u00e7indeki kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek h\u0131zla s\u00fcrmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki ko\u015fullar ise, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m varsay\u0131mlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011finden, ihracat performans\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da fazla de\u011fi\u015fmesi beklenmez. Yine de d\u00f6viz kurunda bug\u00fcne kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle ve Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ek s\u0131cak para giri\u015flerinden do\u011facak yeni de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131racak \u00f6nlemleri alaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, ihracatta bir miktar iyile\u015fme beklenebilir. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim d\u00f6nemde potansiyelimizin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131r ve yine cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci &#8216;u\u00e7&#8217; senaryom k\u00f6t\u00fcmser. \u015e\u00f6yle: Avrupa&#8217;daki kriz daha da \u015fiddetleniyor. Sorunlu \u00fclkelerin tahvillerinin piyasa de\u011ferleri giderek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Almanya dahil \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkenin bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 daha da bozuluyor. Avrupa&#8217;da kredi arz\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz etkilenmesi anlam\u0131na gelir bu. Ek olarak sorunlu \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 onlar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7elerini daha da bozar. Bu \u00fclkeler daha s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 uygulamak zorunda kal\u0131rlar. Ayr\u0131ca, bu \u00fclkelerde t\u00fcketici ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveni yerlerde s\u00fcr\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flar. Bu nedenlerle Avrupa&#8217;da zaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 daha da d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131na k\u00fcresel krizde ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ya\u015far\u0131z. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa&#8217;ya yap\u0131yoruz; ihracat\u0131m\u0131z olumsuz etkilenir. \u0130kincisi, g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 artaca\u011f\u0131ndan bizim gibi \u00fclkelerden b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 olur. Bu durumda bizde de kredi arz\u0131 ve talebi d\u00fc\u015fer, ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcven azal\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7ta ekonomimiz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr ve i\u015fsizlik s\u0131\u00e7rar. FED&#8217;in yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesi bu olumsuz etkileri bir miktar t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme nas\u0131l olur? Ne yaz\u0131k ki iyimser senaryonun k\u00f6t\u00fcmser senaryoya k\u0131yasla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Ama belirtti\u011fim gibi bunlar &#8216;u\u00e7&#8217; senaryolar. Ger\u00e7ek, bu iki ucun aras\u0131nda bir yerde olabilir. Kan\u0131mca, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen, k\u00f6t\u00fcmsere daha yak\u0131n bir yerde olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son hafta i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131za ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli veriler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00d6nce temmuz ay\u0131na ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi, sonra da y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}