{"id":5016,"date":"2011-09-13T09:16:27","date_gmt":"2011-09-13T06:16:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5016"},"modified":"2011-09-13T09:16:37","modified_gmt":"2011-09-13T06:16:37","slug":"ilk-yarida-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ilk-yarida-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130lk Yar\u0131da B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizi tehlikeli bir\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>yol<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ayr\u0131m\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011fal olarak Avrupa borsalar\u0131n\u0131 vuruyor. Yaz\u0131ya oturdu\u011fumda New York daha a\u00e7\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleniyordu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k euro-dolar paritesi yatay seyretti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1991442245\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Temmuz \u00f6demeler dengesi Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Cari i\u015flemler dengesinde ayl\u0131k 5.3 milyar\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>dolar<\/strong><\/span>, y\u0131ll\u0131k 74.6 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k var. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na girmeye vaktim olmad\u0131. Yeni bilgi varsa sonra de\u011ferlendirece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>CNBC-e T\u00fcketim Endeksi a\u011fustos sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yay\u0131nland\u0131. Endekste haziran sonras\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ini\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Mevsim etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131nca temmuza k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 2.1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep d\u00f6neminin sona erdi\u011fine\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>bir<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ba\u015fka i\u015farettir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek milli gelir verileri T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ba\u015fl\u0131klara mutlaka yans\u0131yacakt\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 tahminlerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde geldi. Piyasa y\u00fczde 6.4 bekliyordu. Ben y\u00fczde 8 civar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 8.8 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada 2010 sonras\u0131 verileri de g\u00fcncellendi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 2010 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 8.9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 9\u2019a,<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ilk<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 11\u2019den y\u00fczde 11.6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Beyhude komplo aramay\u0131n. Ola\u011fan d\u00fczeltmelerdir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Neticede T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ilk yar\u0131da y\u00fczde 10.2; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 8.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc daha iyi yans\u0131tan takvim\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0mevsim etkisi temizlenmi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ise ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 1.3 oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Laf\u0131 dola\u015ft\u0131rmaya gerek yok. Nereden bakarsak bakal\u0131m, h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme demektir. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerindedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme liginin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131ndaki yerini korumas\u0131na yetecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4286098607\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu noktada piyasa beklentileri \u00fczerine bir g\u00f6zlem yapmak istiyorum. Bence iki g\u00f6stergede sistematik sapma belirginle\u015fiyor. Enflasyon s\u00fcrekli piyasan\u0131n tahmininin alt\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Neden acaba?<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018V\u2019 toparlanma<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2008 mali krizi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de reel ekonomiyi \u00e7ok sarst\u0131. Sert bir resesyonu tetikledi. Sorumlular aras\u0131nda gerekli tepkiyi zaman\u0131ndan veremeyen para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 da sayabiliriz. O d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok ele\u015ftirdim.<\/p>\n<p>Neyse ki ge\u00e7 de olsa sonunda do\u011fru politikalara ge\u00e7ildi. Ekonomi ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla toparlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. B\u00f6ylesine literat\u00fcrde V-bi\u00e7iminde toparlanma deniyor. Yani milli gelirdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla bir y\u00fckseli\u015f izliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-39897483\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte son be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7eyrek (\u00e7ubuk) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k (\u00e7izgi) b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Bence resim \u00e7ok nettir. Toparlanman\u0131n ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca anlatmaya ihtiya\u00e7 duymuyorum. Milli gelir verilerinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na sonra girece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>Asaf \u00a0Sava\u015f Akat<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizi tehlikeli bir\u00a0yol\u00a0ayr\u0131m\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011fal olarak Avrupa borsalar\u0131n\u0131 vuruyor. Yaz\u0131ya oturdu\u011fumda New York daha a\u00e7\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleniyordu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k euro-dolar paritesi yatay&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5016\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}