{"id":49764,"date":"2017-05-11T19:21:10","date_gmt":"2017-05-11T16:21:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=49764"},"modified":"2017-05-11T19:21:10","modified_gmt":"2017-05-11T16:21:10","slug":"cetin-unsalan-cari-acik-carpintisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-cari-acik-carpintisi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00e7arp\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye cari a\u00e7\u0131k uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k dedi\u011finiz asl\u0131nda bildi\u011finiz ekonomideki zarar anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kurulu\u015f, geli\u015fmelerin ekonomimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131k riskini bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u015eimdi bu k\u0131skan\u00e7l\u0131ktan m\u0131d\u0131r bilinmez ama, bu sefer uyar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131r aralar\u0131, eskisinden biraz daha riskli.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1093317377\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131k probleminin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesizli\u011finden ve ekonomik modelinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 her f\u0131rsatta aktar\u0131yorum. Y\u0131llard\u0131r bunu s\u00f6ylerken, birilerinin \u2018finanse edildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu de\u011fil, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonominin g\u00f6stergesidir\u2019 masal\u0131n\u0131 dinledik.<\/p>\n<p>Bir \u015fekilde \u00fclkeye para girerken sorun g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yordu. Fakat s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi gibi de de\u011fildi. O g\u00fcne has verdi\u011finiz a\u00e7\u0131ktaki yap\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtar\u0131rken, ancak gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik ipotek yaratmaktan \u00f6teye anlam ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yordu. Dinlemediler; a\u00e7\u0131k vermekle ve bunu finanse etmekle \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fcler.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa \u00fcretim yap\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7erisindeki tehlike bas bas ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor ve alarm veriyordu. S\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde d\u00fcnyada dengeler tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcnce, daralmaya paralel bu kez de cari a\u00e7\u0131k gerilemeye, ama maliyeti y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu durumda da yine maliyeti g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ettiler ve \u2018bak\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor\u2019 diyerek \u00f6v\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p>Yani d\u00fcn \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fckleri riskin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini g\u00f6remeyecek kadar k\u00f6r olmu\u015flard\u0131. Daha ac\u0131s\u0131 da bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde, yani ne d\u00fcn, ne sonras\u0131nda bu yap\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in parmaklar\u0131n\u0131 bile oynatmad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi geldi\u011fimiz noktada \u00fcretim ekonomisi diyerek, bu kavram\u0131 dillerine pelesenk edip, bunu tamamen bir havu\u00e7 g\u00f6stererek, yeniden para \u00e7ekmenin kayg\u0131s\u0131yla hareket ediyorlar. Bu bir niyet okuma de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Bakanlar\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki bunu \u00e7ok net g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley\u2019in uyar\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6nersek, \u015fu soruyu sordu\u011funuzu biliyorum: Madem kronik bir problemdi; neden \u015fimdi daha \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc buluyorsun? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmede enerji faturas\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve turizm gelirlerinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne at\u0131fta bulunarak, art\u0131\u015fta bunun \u00f6nemli bir gerek\u00e7e oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yani d\u00fcn d\u00f6viz getirmek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracat odakl\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131k \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131 ile tehlike kap\u0131m\u0131zdayd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise ilaveten, d\u00fc\u015fen gelirler ve y\u00fckselen maliyetlerle\u2026 Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun ise gelir kayb\u0131 sadece turizmde yok. \u0130hracat oranlar\u0131m\u0131z miktar baz\u0131nda nisbi olarak art\u0131yor, ama de\u011fer baz\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2157933439\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu ne demek? Daha \u00e7ok mal verip, cebimize daha az para koyuyoruz. Daha \u00e7ok da \u00f6yle \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomisi yaratacak halde de\u011fil. Eskisinden daha \u00e7ok\u2026 Bunun birim maliyetler ve bor\u00e7lu reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn maliyetleri \u00fczerinde yarataca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u015eu anki tablo, \u00e7ekini \u00f6demek i\u00e7in, raf\u0131ndaki mal\u0131n\u0131 ucuza veren esnaf g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Sorun sadece d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen parada de\u011fil. \u0130\u00e7te de vergi ve primler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere ekonominin ciddi bir tahsilat sorunu bulunuyor. Bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6stergesi de yap\u0131land\u0131rma \u00fcst\u00fcne yap\u0131land\u0131rma yap\u0131p; para toplanamamas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Zira bunu \u00f6demek zorunda olan kesim, b\u00f6yle bir kaynak bulam\u0131yor. Sadece icradan kurtulmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya ba\u015fvuruyor ve biraz zaman kazan\u0131yor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet de tahakkuklar\u0131 gelir zannediyor; sonra kasaya girmeyince hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Bu ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin sokaktan tamamen koptu\u011funun kan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Gider k\u0131sm\u0131na gelirsek, sadece enerji maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015f yok. Bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131n\u0131n dolar nedeniyle TL baz\u0131ndaki maliyeti de artarken; \u00fcreticinin enflasyonu da t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Yani maliyet fiyatland\u0131r\u0131lam\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2393472445\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 alt alta koydu\u011funuzda da muhtemelen Bakanlar\u2019\u0131n \u2018bizi k\u0131skan\u0131yorlar\u2019 diyerek a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 bu durum, sadece cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu de\u011fil, bundan daha kritik olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 sorununu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koyuyor. Art\u0131k \u015fu k\u0131skan\u00e7l\u0131k masal\u0131n\u0131 bitirip, ger\u00e7eklerle y\u00fczle\u015fme zaman\u0131 gelmedi mi?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye cari a\u00e7\u0131k uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k dedi\u011finiz asl\u0131nda bildi\u011finiz ekonomideki zarar anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kurulu\u015f, geli\u015fmelerin ekonomimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131k riskini&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-49764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49764\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}