{"id":4945,"date":"2011-09-12T09:18:28","date_gmt":"2011-09-12T06:18:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4945"},"modified":"2011-09-12T09:18:41","modified_gmt":"2011-09-12T06:18:41","slug":"komsu-artik-iflah-olmaz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/komsu-artik-iflah-olmaz\/","title":{"rendered":"Kom\u015fu Art\u0131k \u0130flah Olmaz!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bilmem hat\u0131rlar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z Lehman Brothers\u2019\u0131n batt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hafta sonunu. Bir\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>\u00e7ok<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bankan\u0131n ismi dillendirilirken, Lehman \u00fczerine y\u00fcklenildi. Di\u011fer bankalar Lehman\u2019a i\u015flem limitlerini kapatt\u0131lar, yeni likidite bulamayan, piyasalarda i\u015flem yapma kabiliyetini kaybeden Lehman bir anda batt\u0131. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n da durumu \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 de\u011fil. Kom\u015fu\u2019nun durumu iyice zorla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1210507343\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aday\u0131yken uygulanan politikalara kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in istifa eden Bundesbank\u2019\u0131n Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Axcel Weber\u2019den sonra ECB\u2019nin Ba\u015f Ekonomisti ve ECB \u0130cra Kurulu \u00dcyesi Juergen Starck\u2019\u0131n da istifas\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok ciddi kar\u0131\u015fturd\u0131. ECB\u2019nin PIIGS (Portekiz, \u0130talya, \u0130rlanda, Yunanistan ve \u0130spanya) tahvillerini alma politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in istifa etti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenen Starck\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131; Almanya cephesindeki \u2018kurtarma operasyonuna\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131 tepkilerin artmas\u0131 olarak yorumland\u0131 piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan. Kat\u0131 Alman merkez bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekol\u00fc\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ile<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0yeni liberal ECB ekol\u00fcn\u00fcn anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor!<\/p>\n<p>Ortada bir \u2018melek kurtar\u0131c\u0131\u2019 yoksa nas\u0131l kurtulacakt\u0131 Asiye, pardon Yunanistan? \u0130\u015fte bu korkuydu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcn\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki olumsuz\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>hava<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Her ne kadar Papandreu hafta sonu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, \u201c\u00dclkenin ayakta kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken her \u015feyi yapaca\u011f\u0131z. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n Avrupa\u2019daki kurumsal, siyasi populizm ve di\u011fer sorunlar\u0131n g\u00fcnah ke\u00e7isi olmas\u0131na izin vermeyece\u011fiz\u2018\u2019 dese de art\u0131k \u2018kom\u015funun\u2019 ad\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 9\u2019a, inmez 8\u2019e! Bilmem hat\u0131rlarm\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z Lehman Brothers\u2019\u0131n batt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hafta sonunu. Bir \u00e7ok bankan\u0131n ismi dillendirilirken, en fazla Lehman \u00fczerinde konu\u015fuldu. Di\u011fer bankalar Lehman\u2019a i\u015flem limitlerini kapatt\u0131lar,\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0likidite bulamayan, piyasalarda i\u015flem yapma kabiliyetini kaybeten Lehman bir hafta sonu bat\u0131vermi\u015fti. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n da durumu \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00d6nce Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n teminat istemesi, \u015fimdi AB yetkilileri ile Yunanistan aras\u0131ndaki ileti\u015fimin \u2018durmas\u0131\u2019, ECB i\u00e7inde ve de Almanya\u2019da farkl\u0131 seslerin \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u2018y\u00fczd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini\u2019 gittik\u00e7e zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Tekne her yerinde su almaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve i\u015fin k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc delikler art\u0131k t\u0131kanamayacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Papandreu ne kadar hamasi nutuklar atarsa ats\u0131n, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 7.3 ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 8.1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen Yunan ekonomisi, bu delikleri kapatmaktan \u00e7ok uzakta.<\/p>\n<p>Hafta sonu Moody\u2019s; BNP Paribas SA, Credit Agricole SA\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Societe Generale SA\u2019n\u0131n portf\u00f6ylerindeki Yunanistan bonolar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 indirilmek \u00fczere izlemeye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130lk iki bankan\u0131n bir kademe, Societe Generale\u2019nin iki kademe not indirimi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi piyasada konu\u015fulanlar aras\u0131nda. Anla\u015f\u0131lan Moody\u2019s de Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n ifl\u00e2h olmayaca\u011f\u0131na kani olmu\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Yine hafta sonu Marsilya\u2019da toplanan G-7 Maliye Bakanlar\u0131, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin ayakta kalabilmesi i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nlemin al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Sanki daha \u00f6nceleri bunu yapm\u0131yorlard\u0131. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ve siyasiler \u0131srarla ayn\u0131 hatay\u0131 yapmaya devam ediyorlar ve yine meseleyi bir \u2018likidite\u2019 sorunu olarak alg\u0131lamaya devam ediyorlar. Ya da kamuoyuna b\u00f6yle sunmay\u0131 tercih ediyorlar. Her ikisi de bu a\u00e7mazdan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131yor, sa\u011flamayacak!<\/p>\n<p>Bankalara (ve de PIIGS\u2019e) para vererek sorunu ertelemek, zamana yayman\u0131n art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamalar\u0131, gerekiyor! \u00d6zellikle de AB ve ECB\u2019nin bu konuda \u00e7ok daha net ve kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 \u015fart oldu! Bunu yapmad\u0131klar\u0131 takdirde \u0130rlanda ve Yunanistan\u2019da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kanserin \u0130talya, \u0130spanya\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na engel olamayacaklar. Ard\u0131ndan da Fransa ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ki AB\u2019nin kalbi ve beyni diyebiliriz; kanser olmas\u0131na engel olamayacaklar!<\/p>\n<p>Bundan sonras\u0131 ac\u0131 ila\u00e7 devri! Birilerinin can\u0131 yanacak, birilerinin can\u0131 \u00e7ok yanacak. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 bu krizin bedelini \u00f6demek zorunda. Kamuya y\u00fckleme, bireylere \u2018da\u011f\u0131tma\u2019 y\u00f6ntemi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-723924017\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu saatten sonra ne yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131 konusu, \u015fimdilik k\u0131sa vadede piyasalarda neler olabilece\u011fine bir g\u00f6z atmakta fayda var!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Borsalar ne olacak?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015far\u0131da DAX\u2019ta 5.122 seviyesi olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli! Bu seviye korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece Almanya\u2019n\u0131n hamili\u011fi konusunda mutabakat devam ediyor demektir. Ola ki bu seviyenin alt\u0131na g\u00fcnl\u00fck, hele ki haftal\u0131k bazda bir kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6recek olur ise Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fi iyiden iyiye zora girecek demektir.<\/p>\n<p>AB ne gibi \u2018yeni\u2019 karalar al\u0131r bilemiyorum ama euro\/dolar paritesinde 1.3780\u2019nin alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bu hafta i\u00e7inde 1.3410 seviyesinin test edilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor! Hem daha \u00f6nceki zirve\/diplerden birine denk gelkiyor olmas\u0131ndan hem de 1.4550\u2019den gelen b\u00f6ylesi \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck\u2019 bir hareketin mutlaka sonsuz tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc gitmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla bu seviyenin tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u2018varsay\u0131yorum\u2019!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3908816035\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Paritede bunlar olurken dolar\/TL cephesinde de \u2018gerginlik\u2019 artacakt\u0131r! Yine de 1.8030 seviyesi \u00f6nemini koruyacak ve bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Dolar\/TL direnecek olur ise \u20181 dolar+1euro\u2019dan olu\u015fan sepette gerileme ya\u015fanabilir. 4.30 seviyesi (0.50 dolar+0.50 takip edenler i\u00e7in 2.15) kritik! Bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Ola ki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lacak olur ise yeni gerginliklere haz\u0131r olmakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB mi dediniz? \u0130MKB\u2019de \u2018Hafta sonu Yunanistan batmad\u0131, her\u015fey yolunda\u2019 gibi bir hava olu\u015facak olursa; ki saman alevi gibi ge\u00e7ici olacakt\u0131r; Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc kay\u0131plar geri al\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcm \u00e7aba 59.134 ile 57.755 aras\u0131ndaki \u2018bo\u015flu\u011fun\u2019 kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olacakt\u0131r. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilecekler mi, ciddi \u015f\u00fcphelerim var!<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 bir anda saran \u2018not art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair duyum\u2019gibi sebeplerle yeni bir \u2018gaz gelecek\u2019 olsa da 59.500-60.000 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 hayli zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor! A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 53.700 \u00f6nemli olacak!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bilmem hat\u0131rlar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z Lehman Brothers\u2019\u0131n batt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hafta sonunu. Bir\u00a0\u00e7ok\u00a0bankan\u0131n ismi dillendirilirken, Lehman \u00fczerine y\u00fcklenildi. Di\u011fer bankalar Lehman\u2019a i\u015flem limitlerini kapatt\u0131lar, yeni likidite bulamayan, piyasalarda i\u015flem&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4945\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}