{"id":4931,"date":"2011-09-12T10:35:37","date_gmt":"2011-09-12T07:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4931"},"modified":"2011-10-04T21:22:03","modified_gmt":"2011-10-04T18:22:03","slug":"avrupada-canlar-kimin-icin-caliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupada-canlar-kimin-icin-caliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa&#8217;da \u00c7anlar Kimin \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7al\u0131yor&#8230; Tehlikeli Bir Hafta"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m seans i\u00e7i yorumda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ho\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve dikkatlerin art\u0131k Avrupa ve Yunanistan&#8217;a kayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek hisselerde sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p daha sonra alttan al\u0131m yap\u0131labilece\u011fi yorumunda bulunmu\u015ftum. Endeks o s\u0131rada 56.500 seviyelerindeydi. \u0130kinci seansta 55.500&#8217;e kadar geriledi ve 55.900 civar\u0131ndan kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. \u00a0Bu haftaya ise olduk\u00e7a stresli ba\u015flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Bu yaz\u0131 11 Eyl\u00fcl pazar gecesi saat 11:55&#8217;de yaz\u0131l\u0131yor. DXY endeksi d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda dolara olan talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu saatlerde i\u015fleme ba\u015flayan foreks piyasalar\u0131nda dolara talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2977429580\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>G-7 \u00fclkeleri ekonomi ve maliye bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n Fransa\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019daki bor\u00e7 krizi ve k\u00fcresel resesyon tehlikesine kar\u015f\u0131 bankalar\u0131n ve yava\u015flayan ekonomilerin desteklenece\u011fi bildirildi. D\u00fcn Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan ortak bildiride \u2018Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi ve finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in gerekli t\u00fcm ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131z\u2019 ifadesine yer verildi. Yine ayn\u0131 bildiride g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve dengeli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel anlamda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7aba gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen Avrupa\u2019daki stres b\u00fcy\u00fcyor ve piyasalar art\u0131k politikac\u0131lar ve Merkez bankalar\u0131 b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131n\u0131n bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan elle tutulur bir \u015fey \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Bu hafta, son zamanlar\u0131n en stresli haftalar\u0131ndan biri olmaya adayd\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kurtar\u0131lacak bir taraf\u0131 kalmad\u0131. \u00a0Merkel, Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n iflas\u0131 durumunda zarar yazabilecek ve kaynak aktar\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lmak zorunda kal\u0131nacak Alman bankalar\u0131na gerekli deste\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. \u015eimdi hastan\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bekleniyor ve tahminen bu \u00f6l\u00fcm, Yunanistan i\u00e7in toplanacak ve 8 milyar euroluk kredi diliminin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan Troyka toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Yunanistan iflas ederse ne olur?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Yunanistan tahvillerini elinde bulunduran bankalar \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlar yazarlar ve en az birka\u00e7 banka batar. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa\u2019da krediler inan\u0131lmaz bir \u015fekilde daral\u0131r. Yunan bankalar\u0131na h\u00fccum olur ve mevduat \u00e7ekili\u015fleri ba\u015flar. Mevduata h\u00fccum sadece Yunan bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil, Yunan tahvillerini portf\u00f6ylerinde y\u00fcksek oranda bulunduran di\u011fer bankalar i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erlidir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ve Bel\u00e7ika bankalar\u0131na ve k\u0131smen de Frans\u0131z bankalara s\u0131\u00e7rayabilecek bir medvuat ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Bu durum piyasalarda pani\u011fi k\u00f6r\u00fcklerse, Lehman Brothers\u2019\u0131n batmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi kredi piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015flem olmaz. Kimse kimseye bor\u00e7 vermez. Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re kredilerinin kesilmesiyle birlikte, \u00e7ok derin bir resesyon ve hatta depresyona girilebilir. Yani \u015fu anki risk, 2008 global krizinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ekonomik risklerden daha b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde Yunanistan \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n tahvil faizleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yunaninstan\u2019\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizleri y\u00fczde 57\u2019ye f\u0131rlad\u0131 ve art\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fcrlmesi imkans\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130talyan ve \u0130spanyol 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri de tekrar h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131nda S&amp;P\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin notunu indirmesiyle ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7te sert y\u00fckseli\u015fler kaydetmi\u015fler, daha sonra Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu \u00fclkelerin tahvillerini almaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015flerdi. \u015eu an tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131 devam etmesine ra\u011fmen getirilerin yeniden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 iyiye alamet de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/yunanistan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4932\" title=\"yunanistan\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/yunanistan.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"490\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/yunanistan.png 490w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/yunanistan-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/yunanistan-66x50.png 66w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 490px) 100vw, 490px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/italya.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4933\" title=\"italya\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/italya.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"490\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/italya.png 490w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/italya-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/italya-66x50.png 66w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 490px) 100vw, 490px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/ispanya.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4934\" title=\"ispanya\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/ispanya.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"490\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/ispanya.png 490w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/ispanya-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/ispanya-66x50.png 66w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 490px) 100vw, 490px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>GRAF\u0130KLER \u0130\u00c7\u0130N \u00a0KAYNAK<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/292892-remembering-9-11-lessons-for-today-s-financial-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/seekingalpha.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Cari A\u00e7\u0131k Verilerimiz<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn (12 Eyl\u00fcl) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rulmayacak derecede y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelecektir ama zaten beklentiler dahilinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 olumlu etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nemli bir veri de Temmuz ay\u0131 Cari a\u00e7\u0131k verimizdir. 5.3 ile 5.8 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k bekleniyor. Bu aral\u0131kta gelirse piyasalar \u00fczerinde etkisi olmaz ama 5.7 veya 5.8 milyar dolardan y\u00fcksek bir veri kurlarda ciddi bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Buna bir de Avrupa\u2019daki krizi eklersek dolar\/TL kuru 1.80\u2019i a\u015fabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-642945946\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>SONU\u00c7<\/strong>: Ortam \u00e7ok kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. <strong>Moody\u2019s Frans\u0131z bankalar\u0131n\u0131n notunu bu hafta indirebilir.<\/strong> Euro\/dolar paritesi 1.30\u2019lara kadar gerileyebilir ve ALTIN yeni rekorlar k\u0131rabilir. Olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir dalgalanma ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr bir duruma haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Yunanistan i\u00e7in deniz bitti. Ama daha da \u00f6nemlisi sanki Avrupa i\u00e7in de deniz bitmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00a0Bu sabah d\u0131\u015f piyasalar nas\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r bilemiyorum. paran\u0131n Rotas\u0131 program\u0131nda ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analiz verece\u011fim. Ama e\u011fer endeks y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r veya y\u00fczde 1 civar\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc kar realize edin \u00f6nerimize uymu\u015f veya satm\u0131\u015f olanlar varsa al\u0131m i\u00e7in bence aceleci olmas\u0131nlar. Seans i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fckseli\u015fler olabilir. Hatta Avrupa&#8217;dan gelen baz\u0131 olumlu haberlerle bir anda yeniden yukar\u0131 hareketler olabilir, fakat \u015fu an genel olarak d\u00fcnyada hava \u00e7ok bozuk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazmadan \u00f6nce global havay\u0131 koklamak ad\u0131na en az 10-12 yazar ve 20&#8217;nin \u00fczerinde haber okuyorum. \u015eu an edindi\u011fim izlenim, bu haftan\u0131n olduk\u00e7a stresli olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. \u00a0Seans i\u00e7i yorumumu saat 11:30 civar\u0131nda okuyabilirsiniz. Bug\u00fcn TV&#8217;deki paran\u0131n rotas\u0131 program\u0131n\u0131 internetten izlemek i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki linki t\u0131klayabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bugun.com.tr\/bugunTv\/?ref=top\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/www.bugun.com.tr\/bugunTv\/?ref=top \u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m seans i\u00e7i yorumda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ho\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve dikkatlerin art\u0131k Avrupa ve Yunanistan&#8217;a kayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek hisselerde sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p daha sonra alttan al\u0131m yap\u0131labilece\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4931\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}