{"id":49207,"date":"2017-03-16T17:54:54","date_gmt":"2017-03-16T14:54:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=49207"},"modified":"2017-03-16T17:54:54","modified_gmt":"2017-03-16T14:54:54","slug":"erol-gurcan-tcmb-faiz-karari-degerlendirme-mart-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-tcmb-faiz-karari-degerlendirme-mart-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; TCMB Faiz Karar\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme (Mart 2017)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) bug\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Mart 2017 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi bor\u00e7 verme faizinde 75 bp art\u0131\u015fa giderken di\u011fer faizlerde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmedi. Karar\u0131n, piyasa beklentilerinin az da olsa alt\u0131nda kalmakla birlikte, kabaca beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Fed karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda 3.67 \u2013 3.68 TL civar\u0131na gerileyen kurun, karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 3.64 TL civar\u0131nda dengelenmesi de bunu teyit eder nitelikte. TCMB\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131 26 Nisan\u2019da<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4068490133\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Mart-2017.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-49208 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Mart-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"520\" height=\"162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Mart-2017.png 520w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Mart-2017-300x93.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Karar Metninde Dikkat \u00c7eken Noktalar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Karar ile birlikte yay\u0131nlanan metinde dikkat \u00e7eken noktalara a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da de\u011finilmi\u015ftir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0130ktisadi faaliyetteki toparlanma \u201ck\u0131smi\u201d de\u011fil \u201ckademeli\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00d6nceki ayki toplant\u0131ya ait metinde <strong><u>iktisadi faaliyette k\u0131smi bir toparlanma<\/u><\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edilirken, bu ay <strong><u>iktisadi faaliyetteki kademeli bir toparlanma<\/u><\/strong> ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum:<\/strong> \u201cK\u0131smi\u201d kelimesiyle \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131 d\u00f6neminde toplam iktisadi faaliyetin belirli b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; \u201ckademeli\u201d kelimesiyle toplam iktisadi faaliyetin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde a\u015famal\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015faret edildi\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor ve yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir sinyal olarak yorumluyoruz.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Enflasyondaki y\u00fckseli\u015f devam edebilir<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>\u201c<strong>Toplam talep geli\u015fmeleri enflasyona d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde katk\u0131 vermektedir<u>.<\/u><\/strong>\u201d ifadesi metinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c\u2026 son Kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana <strong>d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketlilik enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong>\u201d ifadesi yerine \u201cSon aylarda ya\u015fanan <strong>maliyet y\u00f6nl\u00fc geli\u015fmeler ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k enflasyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermesine neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/strong>\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<strong>D\u00f6viz kuru geli\u015fmelerinin gecikmeli etkisi ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki <u>oynakl\u0131k<\/u><\/strong> nedeniyle <strong>k\u0131sa vadede enflasyondaki belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam edebilece\u011fi<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.\u201d yerine \u201c<strong>D\u00f6viz kuru hareketlerinin gecikmeli yans\u0131malar\u0131<\/strong> ve <strong>i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki <u>baz etkisi<\/u><\/strong> nedeniyle <strong>k\u0131sa vadede enflasyondaki belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam edebilece\u011fi<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum:<\/strong> \u0130ktisadi faaliyetteki de\u011fi\u015fime yap\u0131lan vurgu ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00e7ift hanelere y\u00fckselmesi sonras\u0131nda enflasyon geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri konusunda talep taraf\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve risklerden ziyade ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin nedenine odaklan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. Y\u00fckseli\u015fin nedeni olarak yaln\u0131zca d\u00f6viz kurundaki hareketlili\u011fe at\u0131fta bulunmak yerine \u201cmaliyet y\u00f6nl\u00fc geli\u015fmeler\u201d \u015feklinde genel bir tabir kullan\u0131larak muhtemelen enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u00a0 gibi unsurlar\u0131n da kapsanmas\u0131 tercih edilmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Enflasyonun k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gecikmeli kur etkisinin devam edece\u011fi ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki Rusya kaynakl\u0131 baz etkisi i\u015faret edilerek, piyasadaki \u00e7ift hanelerdeki seyrin bir s\u00fcre daha devam edece\u011fi beklentisinin TCMB taraf\u0131ndan da teyit edildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Enflasyonda belirgin iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar duru\u015f s\u0131k\u0131<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>\u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde <strong>para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r<\/strong>.\u201d Yerine \u201c<strong>Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecektir<\/strong>.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<strong>D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda iktisadi temellerle uyumlu olmayan<\/strong> sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z fiyat olu\u015fumlar\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmesi halinde <strong><u>likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ile gerekli tedbirler al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131<\/u><\/strong>\u201d ifadesi metinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum: <\/strong>Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen bozulma nedeniyle, kararlar\u0131n enflasyon taraf\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 yerine yeniden d\u00fczelme g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi ifade edilerek TCMB\u2019nin daha net bir ileti\u015fim kullanmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Kur taraf\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle bir \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6zlenen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sona ermi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu konuya yap\u0131lan atf\u0131n metinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 normal kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Genel De\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1657414397\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Piyasadaki anketlere g\u00f6re; TCMB\u2019nin faiz koridorunun alt band\u0131 ve politika faizinde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmesi beklenmezken; koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 0 \u2013 75 bp, Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi Bor\u00e7 Verme Faizinde ise 50 \u2013 100 bp art\u0131r\u0131ma gitmesi bekleniyordu. Fed karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin \u00f6nemli bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitmeyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler de a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Karar\u0131n, piyasa beklentilerinin az da olsa alt\u0131nda kalmakla birlikte, kabaca beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Fed karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda 3.67 \u2013 3.68 TL civar\u0131na gerileyen kurun kararla birlikte 3.62 TL\u2019li seviyelere kadar gerileyip 3.64 \u2013 3.65 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengelenmesi de bunu teyit eder nitelikte.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana 1 hafta vadeli repo ihalesi a\u00e7mayan TCMB, 24 Ocak\u2019taki y\u0131l\u0131n ilk PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak fonlaman\u0131n % 66\u2019l\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi Bor\u00e7 Verme Faizi (GLP) \u00fczerinden, % 34\u2019l\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ise TCMB Gecelik Bor\u00e7 Verme Faizi (\u00dcst Bant) \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131. T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u015fubat ay\u0131nda \u00e7ift haneye gelmesi sonras\u0131nda ise GLP \u00fczerinden fonlama % 88 \u2013 89 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylelikle % 10.4 seviyelerinde olu\u015fan A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Ortalama Fonlama Faizi (AOFF) % 10.8\u2019li seviyelere kadar y\u00fckseldi. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, toplam fonlaman\u0131n benzer seviyelerde kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve 1 hafta vadeli repo ihalesinin a\u00e7\u0131lmamaya devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, TCMB\u2019nin \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi GLP \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 fonlamay\u0131 % 66\u2019ya indirmesi durumunda AOFF\u2019nin % 10.9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olman\u0131n getirdi\u011fi takvim avantaj\u0131 sayesinde faiz ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131labilecek en alt s\u0131n\u0131rdan yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. TCMB\u2019nin iktisadi faaliyetteki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanma ve enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki bozulman\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir ortamda i\u015fi olduk\u00e7a zor. Faizlerde bir miktar daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ayarlama yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131 kur taraf\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphesiz daha fazla olacakt\u0131; ancak TCMB\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyri bozmama kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Di\u011fer taraftan, normal \u015fartlarda bir ceza kanal\u0131 olan Ge\u00e7 Likiditenin aktif bir politika arac\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 da \u00e7ok sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. Zira, buradan sa\u011flanan fona ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in bankalar g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 16:00\u2019a kadar beklemek zorunda olmas\u0131 bu yap\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00d6zetle, TCMB, ana politika yollar\u0131 yerine yan yollardan hem enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki bozulmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya hem de iktisadi faaliyetteki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyre bozmamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3306698633\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) bug\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Mart 2017 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi bor\u00e7 verme faizinde 75 bp art\u0131\u015fa giderken&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}