{"id":49191,"date":"2017-03-16T11:34:27","date_gmt":"2017-03-16T08:34:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=49191"},"modified":"2017-03-16T12:07:26","modified_gmt":"2017-03-16T09:07:26","slug":"fed-karari-ve-sonrasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-karari-ve-sonrasi\/","title":{"rendered":"FED karar\u0131 ve sonras\u0131&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam FED kendinden bekleneni yapt\u0131 ve faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak 0.75-1.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na getirdi. Beklenen durum ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasalar olumsuz bir reaksiyon vermedi ve borsa \u00fczerindeki etkisini bug\u00fcn g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/strong> <\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1939019331\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>FED&#8217;in 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inde 3 m\u00fc yoksa 4 m\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 merak konusuydu. A\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda tabi ki piyasalar direkt olarak, FED \u00fcyelerinin anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bakt\u0131lar. Bu anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 alt alta veriyorum. \u0130lk grafik d\u00fcn verdi\u011fim ve Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130kinci grafik ise, d\u00fcn gece a\u00e7\u0131klanan anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-49171\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/FED-Beklenti-15-mart-21017-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"594\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/FED-Beklenti-15-mart-21017-2.png 594w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/FED-Beklenti-15-mart-21017-2-300x215.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 594px) 100vw, 594px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki grafik Aral\u0131k 2016&#8217;daki anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 ile \u00e7ember i\u00e7ine al\u0131nan b\u00f6lgede 5 FED \u00fcyesi 2017&#8217;de faizlerin 1.25-1.50 aras\u0131na gelmesini beklerken (her mavi nokta 1 ki\u015fiyi temsil ediyor), 1.00 \u00a0ile 1.25 aras\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen say\u0131s\u0131 d\u00f6rt ve 0.75 ile 1.00 aras\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen say\u0131s\u0131 ise 2 ki\u015fiydi. \u00a0Yani toplam 6 ki\u015fi 1.25&#8217;in alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyordu (2017&#8217;de 2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyordu) A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte ise; 1.25-1.50 aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 9 ki\u015fiye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve 1.25&#8217;in alt\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 3 ki\u015fiye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-49192\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/FED-Beklenti-16-mart-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/FED-Beklenti-16-mart-2017.png 600w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/FED-Beklenti-16-mart-2017-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u015eu an 9 FED \u00fcyesi 1.25-1.50 aras\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve faiz oran\u0131 d\u00fcn ak\u015fam 0.75-1.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na getirildi\u011fi i\u00e7in ve bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yap\u0131lacak. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2017 i\u00e7inde 3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacak. Peki bu durum de\u011fi\u015febilir mi? Elbette ki de\u011fi\u015febilir, fakat yeni anket tarihi 14 Haziran 2017&#8217;dir. Bir bak\u0131ma 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yap\u0131lacaksa ya Haziran ya da Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131da olacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla en az\u0131ndan 2,5 ayl\u0131k bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in FED konusu ve Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusu kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere bug\u00fcn TCMB&#8217;nin PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 var. FED&#8217;in bu karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda TCMB&#8217;nin yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. Bu a\u015famada, dolar 3.70&#8217;in alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015fken ve \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 hafiflemi\u015fken, faiz art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Piyasalar\u0131n Reaksiyonu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn gece FED karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, DXY endeksi 101.5 seviyesinden 100.5 seviyesine kadar sert bir \u015fekilde gerilerken, Dolar 3.7250 seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarak 3.6750 seviyelerine kadar geriledi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri de 2.56 seviyelerinden 2.50 seviyelerine geriledi.\u00a0Temel sebebi de 2017&#8217;de 3 tane de\u011fil, 2 tane daha faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunun en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik netle\u015fmesiydi. Bu a\u015famadan sonra dolar daha geriler mi?<\/p>\n<p>Etkin Pazar hipotezine g\u00f6re, bir bilgi yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda, fiyatlara \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yans\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu a\u015famada dolar \u00fczerindeki etkisini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. E\u011fer dolar yeniden 3.55 seviyelerine kadar gerileseydi, yeni bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendin olu\u015ftu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebilirdik ama bu a\u015famada, bir s\u00fcre dolar\u0131n 3.6500-3.7250 kanal\u0131nda hareket edece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Yeniden 3.7250&#8217;nin yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi de s\u00f6z konusu olabilir ve bu t\u00fcr bir durum yeni bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal olur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2120713757\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Borsaya gelince&#8230; hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z bu haftaya ba\u015flarken yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131da, FED&#8217;in faiz karar\u0131ndan daha \u00e7ok Yellen&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve 2017&#8217;de ka\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fundan ve Yellen&#8217;in ge\u00e7mi\u015f konu\u015fmalar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha \u015fahin olabilece\u011finden bahsetmi\u015f ve bu beklentimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda, borsa \u00fczerindeki etkisinin olumsuz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ama piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u015fekilde oldu ve ekstra faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali gelmedi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bug\u00fcn borsada olduk\u00e7a sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle g\u00fcne ba\u015flayabiliriz. Endeks d\u00fcn 89.455 seviyesinden kapand\u0131. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 1000 puan yukar\u0131da yani 90.500-91.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f olabilir. \u00f6nemli olan konu, borsada yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi ba\u015flayacak m\u0131d\u0131r? sorusudur. Bu a\u015famada yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ba\u015flayabilmesi i\u00e7in, bug\u00fcn veya yar\u0131n endeksin 91.500&#8217;\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem miktar\u0131n\u0131n da 900 milyon ve hatta 1 milyar lotun \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 gerekir. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta i\u015flem miktar\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olacakt\u0131r. Daha sonra i\u015flem miktar\u0131 azal\u0131r, bir miktar geri \u00e7ekilme olur (genellikle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta g\u00f6r\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en y\u00fcksek seviyeye g\u00f6re 500 puan civar\u0131nda gerileme olur) \u00a0ve borsa y\u00fcksek seviyede yatay hareket yapmaya ba\u015flar. Daha sonra yeniden al\u0131mlar\u0131n geldi\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz ve bu al\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 60 dakikal\u0131k s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde 200 milyon lotun \u00fczerinde bir i\u015flem miktar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131n gelmesi zordur. E\u011fer g\u00fcn sonuna do\u011fru bug\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazla bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olursa, endeksin yukar\u0131 gitmekte zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyece\u011fim. Fakat 200 milyon lot \u00fczerinde hacimle 92 bin seviyesinin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015f olmas\u0131 durumunda y\u00fckseli\u015f devam eder. Fakat bunun olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc anayasa oylamas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131yor ve son 2 ayd\u0131r zaten genel bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendindeyiz ve FED faizi konusundaki beklentiler de sona erdi. D\u00fcn ABD endeksleri y\u00fckselse de daha \u00f6nceki zirvelere bile yakla\u015famad\u0131lar. O cephelerde e\u011fer realizasyon (geri \u00e7ekilme veya sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) gelirse, k\u00fcresel borsalara sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 gelir ve biz de etkileniriz. Bu y\u00fczden bu a\u015famada hisse bazl\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131l\u0131p al\u0131m yap\u0131lacaksa bunda sorun yok, fakat, \u00a0endeks baz\u0131nda yeni pozisyon a\u00e7may\u0131 riskli buluyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn ikinci seansta ek bir yorum ge\u00e7erek, borsan\u0131n FED karar\u0131na tepkisinin bir de\u011ferlendirmesini yapaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOT<\/strong>: Bu yaz\u0131 16 Mart 2017, <strong>saat 09:45<\/strong>\u00a0itibariyle yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bursa&#8217;da yapaca\u011f\u0131m e\u011fitim tarihi 22-23 Nisan olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. E\u011fitimlerimle ilgili ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgiye sitenin sa\u011f \u00fcst k\u00f6\u015fesindeki linklerden ula\u015fabilirsiniz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2023320271\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam FED kendinden bekleneni yapt\u0131 ve faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak 0.75-1.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na getirdi. Beklenen durum ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasalar olumsuz bir reaksiyon vermedi ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,769,1497,752,753,1496],"class_list":["post-49191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49191"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49191\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}