{"id":49052,"date":"2017-03-03T13:13:15","date_gmt":"2017-03-03T10:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=49052"},"modified":"2017-03-03T13:13:15","modified_gmt":"2017-03-03T10:13:15","slug":"erol-gurcan-ve-enflasyon-cift-hanelerde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-ve-enflasyon-cift-hanelerde\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Ve Enflasyon \u00c7ift Hanelerde&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k % 0.44 seviyesindeki piyasa beklentilerinin ve % 0.69 seviyesindeki bizim beklentimizin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek ayl\u0131k bazda % 0.81 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. \u00a0B\u00f6ylelikle, en son Nisan 2012\u2019de \u00e7ift hanede bulunan y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriyle birlikte yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckselmi\u015f oldu. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriyi gerek genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm gerek piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131na etkisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan negatif de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4294188988\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-49053 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"193\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-1.png 972w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-1-300x86.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-1-768x220.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u015eubat<\/strong> ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi <strong>(T\u00dcFE)<\/strong> ayl\u0131k <strong>% 0.44<\/strong> seviyesindeki <strong>piyasa<\/strong> <strong>beklentilerinin ve % 0.69 <\/strong>seviyesindeki <strong>bizim beklentimizin \u00fczerinde<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek<strong> ayl\u0131k <\/strong>bazda<strong> % 0.81<\/strong> art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 8.53 olarak tamamlayan T\u00dcFE, bu veriyle birlikte <strong>y\u0131ll\u0131k<\/strong> bazda <strong>% 10.13<\/strong> seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\u00a0 Ayr\u0131ca, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l boyunca a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak olumlu seyrin g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi <strong>\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri<\/strong>ndeki Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenmeye ba\u015flayan <strong>gecikmeli kur etkisi kaynakl\u0131 bozulma<\/strong> bu ayda da <strong>devam etti<\/strong>. <strong>A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriyi gerek genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm gerek piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131na etkisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan negatif de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-49054 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"323\" height=\"123\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-2.png 370w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-2-300x114.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 323px) 100vw, 323px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-49055 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"693\" height=\"76\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-3.png 739w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-3-300x33.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 693px) 100vw, 693px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki Rusya kaynakl\u0131 etkinin sona ermesi ve gecikmeli kur etkisi belirleyici oldu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Man\u015fet enflasyonda ayl\u0131k bazda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fckseli\u015fte <strong>en \u00f6nemli katk\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> <strong>G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler (0.18 puan)<\/strong>, <strong>Ula\u015ft\u0131rma (0.13 puan)<\/strong> ile <strong>Konut (0.12 puan)<\/strong> gruplar\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.\u00a0 Ayl\u0131k bazda en b\u00fcy\u00fck <strong>y\u00fckseli\u015f Ula\u015ft\u0131rma (% 2.82)<\/strong> grubunda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi tek harcama grubu ise <strong>Giyim ve Ayakkab\u0131 (-% 3.35)<\/strong> olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da harcama gruplar\u0131 baz\u0131nda benzer \u015fekilde en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla <strong>G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler (2.20 puan)<\/strong>,<strong> Ula\u015ft\u0131rma<\/strong> <strong>(1.65 puan)<\/strong> ile <strong>Konut<\/strong>tan<strong> (1.50 puan)<\/strong> geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-49056 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-4.png 941w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-4-300x92.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-4-768x235.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>5 Y\u0131l Sonra Enflasyon Yeniden \u00c7ift Hanede\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en ayki verinin ard\u0131ndan bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde \u201c\u0130lk yar\u0131da \u00e7ift haneli enflasyon kesin gibi\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kullanm\u0131\u015f ve bunun gerek\u00e7elerini detay\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ele alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. En son Nisan 2012\u2019de \u00e7ift hanede bulunan y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriyle birlikte yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckselmi\u015f oldu. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE Temmuz 2016\u2019dan itibaren g\u00f6zlenen kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ile Kas\u0131m 2016 d\u00f6neminde % 7.00 ile 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 4. \u00c7eyrek Enflasyon Raporu tahminlerinin alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ilmesinin ard\u0131ndan maliye politikalar\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ABD\u2019de enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenden h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi ve bu durumun da Fed\u2019in beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel olarak de\u011ferlenme e\u011filimine girmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu d\u0131\u015f dinami\u011fe ek olarak baz\u0131 i\u00e7 dinamiklerin de etkisiyle ocak ay\u0131 ortalar\u0131na kadar TL\u2019de olduk\u00e7a sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 g\u00f6zlendi. Dolar\/TL ve Euro\/TL\u2019nin e\u015f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan olu\u015fan D\u00f6viz Sepeti\u2019nde g\u00f6zlenen her % 10\u2019luk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n T\u00dcFE taraf\u0131nda kabaca 1.5 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu etkinin birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k gecikmeyle T\u00dcFE verilerine yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fimiz TL\u2019de sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde D\u00f6viz Sepeti\u2019nde % 20 civarlar\u0131nda bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6zlenmi\u015f oldu\u011fundan, kur kaynakl\u0131 etkilerin enflasyon taraf\u0131nda kabaca 3 puan civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini ve \u00e7ift hanelerin test edilebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmekteydik. Kur kaynakl\u0131 etkilerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra; kas\u0131m ve aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin enerji fiyatlar\u0131na etkisi, Rusya\u2019yla normalle\u015fen ili\u015fkilerle daha \u00f6nce g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenende sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn olumsuz anlamda baz etkisi olu\u015fturmas\u0131, olumsuz k\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131 gibi unsurlar da enflasyonun 5 y\u0131l aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ift hanelere t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan di\u011fer \u00f6nemli unsurlar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, gecikmeli kur etkisinin, son 2 aya k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa h\u00e2len enflasyon \u00fczerinde bir miktar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmekteyiz. Petrol ve Rusya kaynakl\u0131 etkilerin de en az\u0131ndan gelecek birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde daha enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir etkiye sahip olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlara ek olarak Kas\u0131m 2016 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 6.41 seviyesinde olan Yurti\u00e7i \u00dcretici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (\u00dcFE)\u2019nin de \u015fubat sonu itibariyle % 15.36\u2019ya y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekici negatif bir geli\u015fme olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bir s\u00fcredir iktisadi faaliyette ve toplam talepte g\u00f6zlenen \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyir nedeniyle \u00dcFE\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin de T\u00dcFE\u2019ye hen\u00fcz tamamen yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmekteyiz. Toplam talepte g\u00f6zlenecek toparlanman\u0131n da \u00dcFE\u2019den T\u00dcFE\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi daha hissedilebilir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131tabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ba\u015fta kur kaynakl\u0131 etkilerin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enflasyona yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131; TCMB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin kurdaki tansiyonu bir miktar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi; ge\u00e7en ay Bakanlar Kurulu karar\u0131yla baz\u0131 e\u015fyalarda yap\u0131lan \u00d6TV ile konutta KDV d\u00fczenlemeleri; toplam talebin hafif toparlanma e\u011filiminde olmakla birlikte h\u00e2len \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 denebilecek seviyelerde seyretmesi ve enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde gelebilecek olas\u0131 yeni \u00f6nlemler nedeniyle T\u00dcFE\u2019deki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar daha s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsek de \u00e7ift haneli rakamlarda ya da buna yak\u0131n seviyelerde bir s\u00fcre daha kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemekteyiz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-790758125\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-5.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-49057 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"678\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-5.png 836w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-5-300x88.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u015eubat-2017-T\u00dcFE-5-768x226.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 678px) 100vw, 678px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nTakvim avantaj\u0131na ra\u011fmen TCMB\u2019nin i\u015fi zorla\u015fmaya devam ediyor\u2026<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesi sonras\u0131nda gerek ABD enflasyonuna y\u00f6nelik beklentiler ile dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel olarak de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 gerekse de T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelindeki baz\u0131 riskler nedeniyle TL\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan TCMB, 12 Ocak\u2019tan bu yana TL\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici y\u00f6nde bir dizi \u00f6nlem ald\u0131. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle toplant\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 8\u2019e inen TCMB, 24 Ocak\u2019taki y\u0131l\u0131n ilk Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 75, ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi bor\u00e7 verme faizinde 100 bp art\u0131r\u0131ma gitti. TCMB son PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki karar ili\u015fkin \u00f6zet metinde, temel hedefi olan fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse mevcut duru\u015fu daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm \u00f6nlemlerin al\u0131nmaya devam edece\u011fi vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u015fubat T\u00dcFE verisinin g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na ek olarak Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n bu ak\u015fam ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi konu\u015fma ile Fed\u2019in 14 \u2013 15 Mart tarihlerindeki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda al\u0131nacak karar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclecek olmas\u0131 da TCMB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir takvim avantaj\u0131 olu\u015fturmakta. Ancak, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 ile Fed\u2019in mart ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sonras\u0131nda dolar\/TL\u2019nin 3.70 TL \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi bu avantaj\u0131n TCMB\u2019nin elini rahatlatmas\u0131na engel olmakta denebilir. Zira, \u015fubat ay\u0131 boyunca kurda g\u00f6zlenen gev\u015femede TCMB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin birikimli etkileri ile birlikte dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel olarak kazanma e\u011filiminin terse d\u00f6nmesinin de pay\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Trump ve Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin yeniden dolar\u0131 k\u00fcresel olarak de\u011ferlenme e\u011filimine itme riskini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemekte fayda var. Ayr\u0131ca, TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131ndaki duru\u015funu temel olarak fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak \u00fczere \u015fekillendirmeye devam edece\u011fini defaatle ifade etmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmas\u0131 gereken bir di\u011fer kritik unsur.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak PPK \u00f6ncesinde % 9.0 civar\u0131nda olan A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Ortalama Fonlama Faizi son durum itibariyle % 10.4 seviyelerine gelmi\u015f durumda. Man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergelerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe, enflasyon beklentilerindeki bozulma ve \u00e7ift haneli rakamlara gelinmesinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 psikolojik etki ile Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerinin de g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi nedeniyle TCMB\u2019nin bu ayki toplant\u0131da mevcut duru\u015funu daha da s\u0131k\u0131 h\u00e2le getirecek y\u00f6nde son toplant\u0131dakine benzer bir faiz ayarlamas\u0131na gitme ihtimalini kuvvetli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Di\u011fer taraftan, 16 Mart\u2019taki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar kur taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenecek seyir ve Fed\u2019in alaca\u011f\u0131 karar TCMB\u2019nin karar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecektir. \u00d6zetle, son d\u00f6nemdeki kur geli\u015fmeleri ve takvim avantaj\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin elini bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7lendirse de; \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckselen enflasyonun bir s\u00fcre buralarda kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 ihtimali kuvvetlenmi\u015fken ve iktisadi faaliyet \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretmeye devam ederken faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l belirlenmesi gerekti\u011fi sorusuna cevap verebilmek hi\u00e7 de kolay de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2685878262\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k % 0.44 seviyesindeki piyasa beklentilerinin ve % 0.69 seviyesindeki bizim beklentimizin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek ayl\u0131k bazda % 0.81 art\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1892],"class_list":["post-49052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-uretici-fiyat-endeksi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49052"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49052\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}