{"id":49016,"date":"2017-03-01T00:12:28","date_gmt":"2017-02-28T21:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=49016"},"modified":"2017-03-01T00:12:28","modified_gmt":"2017-02-28T21:12:28","slug":"cetin-unsalan-iki-dogru-bir-ama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-iki-dogru-bir-ama\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130ki do\u011fru bir ama  \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn durumunu mercek alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda dikkatle takip edilmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler konu\u015fulmas\u0131 gereken bir s\u00fcre\u00e7teyiz. Bug\u00fcne kadar \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck hatalar yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Tarihe not d\u00fc\u015fmek ad\u0131na da belirtmeliyim ki, bu foto\u011fraftan iktisadi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla tamamen mevcut iktidar sorumludur.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3141626152\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fakat her \u015fey bir yana, \u00f6nceli\u011fimiz \u015fu an i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik risk azalt\u0131c\u0131 ya da yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 konu\u015fmak olmal\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son 3 y\u0131ld\u0131r a\u011f\u0131r bir ekonomik buhran ya\u015fayan ve ani bir krizde ayakta kalacak firmalar\u0131 da y\u0131pratan bir yap\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kapsamda yap\u0131lan iki do\u011fru hareket var. Bunlardan birincisi \u0130stanbul Ticaret Odas\u0131 \u00fcretici kurulu\u015flarla yan sanayici aras\u0131nda bir ba\u011f kurmak ad\u0131na \u00f6nemli bir hareket yapt\u0131. 3 Mart\u2019a kadar devam edecek bulu\u015fmalar havac\u0131l\u0131k, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve savunma sanayi ile ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Hedeflenen yan sanayicinin numunelerini ana \u00fcreticilere ula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ve gelecek s\u00fcre\u00e7te tedarikte yerli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin tercih edilmesi. Son derece do\u011fru bir yap\u0131lanma. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Aile \u0130\u015fletmeleri Derne\u011fi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, KOB\u0130 olan bu firmalar toplam istihdam\u0131n y\u00fczde 75\u2019ini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, hem yap\u0131sal olarak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununun nas\u0131l tetiklendi\u011fini bir kez daha g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ocak ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir art\u0131\u015fla 4,3 milyar dolar oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Pazar\u0131n bu denli darald\u0131\u011f\u0131, kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n geriledi\u011fi bir ortamdaki art\u0131\u015f \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc. Daha kritik olan ise imalat sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin toplam ithalat i\u00e7indeki y\u00fczde 77,5 pay\u0131. \u015eayet bu yap\u0131y\u0131 k\u0131rmazsak, d\u00fcz bir hesaba g\u00f6re 2017 sonunda 40 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131r\u0131z. Finansman\u0131n daha da zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz; sorun b\u00fcy\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>Tam da bu a\u015famada ikinci do\u011fru geliyor. D\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7lanma konusunda risk ta\u015f\u0131yan firmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar getirilmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131l\u0131yor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 23 bin firman\u0131n bu riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilirken, bu i\u015fletmelerin \u00e7o\u011funun KOB\u0130 ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131 oldu\u011funu dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir nokta oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Peki iki do\u011fruyu belirttikten sonra, neden \u2018ama\u2019 ibaresi koydum. \u00d6ncelikle KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama riskli. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunuyor. A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 ben i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi y\u00f6netiminden daha ak\u0131lc\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum ve buna \u00e7ok ihtimal vermiyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3650928682\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ama bu konuyla ilgili ak\u0131l \u00e7elici ve te\u015fvik edici uygulamalar devreye sokulursa sorun b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir. T\u00fcrkiye gibi tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015famayan firmalardan olu\u015fan bir ekonominin \u00f6nceli\u011fi, yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar de\u011fil, doldurulmas\u0131 gereken kapasitelerdir. \u0130lave kapasite daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bat\u0131\u015flara nede olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015f hacminin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda, at\u0131l kapasite birim maliyetlerinin \u00fczerinden zannedilenden daha \u00e7ok bask\u0131 yapar. Sonu\u00e7ta elimizde kapanan firmalar, tahsil edilemeyen piyasa alacaklar\u0131 ve i\u015fsizler ordusu kal\u0131r. Bu akl\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netimine kim veriyorsa, bir an \u00f6nce devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca \u0130TO\u2019daki tedarik\u00e7i haftas\u0131 romantik bir giri\u015fim olarak kalmamal\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye geneline ve sekt\u00f6rlerin tamam\u0131na yay\u0131lmal\u0131. Aksi takdirde, ekonominin geneli ad\u0131na sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7lanma k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131na gelince. Onun amas\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck&#8230; Var olan durumu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ederek b\u00f6yle bir k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya giderseniz, firmalar\u0131n susuzluktan \u00e7atlamas\u0131na neden olursunuz. Te\u015fvik ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda plans\u0131zca verilen paralarla da elde avu\u00e7takini kaybedersiniz. Bu nedenle T\u00fcrkiye d\u00f6viz kuruyla kavga etmek yerine, elindeki g\u00fcc\u00fc do\u011fru kullanmal\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3660454318\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>E\u011fer ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir planlamayla tedarik meselesini i\u00e7ten halleder; d\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7lar\u0131 kapat\u0131r, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda firmalar\u0131 TL kredisine d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcrseniz sonu\u00e7 alman\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Aksi takdirde i\u00e7te ihtiyac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layamayan, d\u00f6viz k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131na gidilen ortamda ikinci bir finansman darbo\u011faz\u0131na giren, borcunu \u00e7eviremeyen firmalar ger\u00e7e\u011fini ya\u015far\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ekten kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in envanterler dizisinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu her f\u0131rsatta s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum. \u00c7ok ge\u00e7 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z da a\u00e7\u0131k. Ama bu yapmamam\u0131z\u0131 da gerektirmez. Do\u011fru bir kurguyla ayakta kalacak firma say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Lakin bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6nce ciddiyet laz\u0131m. Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Canikli\u2019nin Fitch karar\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunup, o zamandan beri TL\u2019nin y\u00fczde 8 de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi bu ciddiyeti ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc herkes biliyor ki dolardaki gev\u015feme kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin dahil \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te akl\u0131selim insanlar d\u00f6vizin maliyetiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ya siyaset yapmay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p, sorunla y\u00fczle\u015felim. Do\u011fru yap\u0131lanmalarla i\u015fi terse \u00e7evirmeye u\u011fra\u015fal\u0131m ya da Saray\u2019a yaranma kayg\u0131s\u0131yla yine problemlerin \u00fczerini salt s\u00f6ylemle \u00f6rtelim. Siz bunu s\u00f6yledi\u011finizde, sahadaki adam sorunu ya\u015fam\u0131yor mu zannediyorsunuz? Buna ger\u00e7ekten inan\u0131yorsan\u0131z, i\u015fimiz var.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn durumunu mercek alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda dikkatle takip edilmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler konu\u015fulmas\u0131 gereken bir s\u00fcre\u00e7teyiz. Bug\u00fcne kadar \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck hatalar yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Tarihe&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-49016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49016\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}