{"id":48862,"date":"2017-02-14T19:51:34","date_gmt":"2017-02-14T16:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=48862"},"modified":"2017-02-14T19:51:34","modified_gmt":"2017-02-14T16:51:34","slug":"cetin-unsalan-iki-birden-buyuk-mudur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-iki-birden-buyuk-mudur\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130ki, birden b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcd\u00fcr?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. 32 milyar 600 milyon dolar. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k toplam\u0131nda bir gerileme g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan sadece rakamlara bakarsak sevinmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oluyor. Fakat i\u015fi biraz analiz etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda \u2018iki, birden b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u2019 sorusu g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-95317410\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Matematiksel olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda her zaman denilebilecek bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131, ne yaz\u0131k ki s\u00f6z konusu olan ekonomi oldu\u011funda de\u011fi\u015febiliyor. Neden mi? Bir \u00fcniversitede final zaman\u0131 t\u00fcm hocalar har\u0131l har\u0131l s\u0131nav sorusu haz\u0131rlarken, iktisat hocalar\u0131 a\u011fac\u0131n alt\u0131nda yat\u0131yormu\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer hocalar buna bozulup \u2018neden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131\u2019 sormu\u015flar. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 net olmu\u015f: \u2018Siz her zaman soru haz\u0131rlamak durumundas\u0131n\u0131z. Oysa biz her y\u0131l ayn\u0131 soruyu sorar\u0131z; ama yan\u0131t\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiktir.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomi ya\u015fayan bir kavramd\u0131r ve ko\u015fullar, ayn\u0131 durumun farkl\u0131 yorumlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bundan yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p cari a\u00e7\u0131k meselesine gelirsek, i\u015fte orada insan\u0131n sevinci kursa\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle cari a\u00e7\u0131kta ana fakt\u00f6r olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek bir \u015fey yapmad\u0131k. Yani problem t\u00fcm ha\u015fmetiyle ortada duruyor. Oransal olarak y\u00fckselmesi ya da d\u00fc\u015fmesine tak\u0131lmay\u0131n. Daha farkl\u0131 bir noktaya dikkat \u00e7ekmek istiyorum. \u015eimdi gelinen noktada do\u011fru bir analiz yapmak i\u00e7in yine matemati\u011fe ba\u015fvural\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 65 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda, 14 \u015eubat 2014 tarihindeki, 2,18\u2019lik dolar \/ TL kuru \u00fczerinden, \u00fclkemize maliyeti 141 milyar 700 milyon TL idi. 2016 verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k 32 milyar 600 milyon dolar. 14 \u015eubat 2017 tarihindeki 3,65 dolar \/ TL kuru \u00fczerinden bize maliyeti 119 milyar TL.<\/p>\n<p>Bu hesapla olaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 22,7 milyar TL\u2019lik bir avantaj\u0131m\u0131z olu\u015fuyor. Dolar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde y\u00fcze yak\u0131n bir gerilemenin, TL olarak hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15\u2019lik bir avantaj olarak yans\u0131mas\u0131, esasen sorunun boyutunu da ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle firmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fen gelirlerinin ve daralan pazarlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir problem oldu\u011funu ortaya koymam\u0131z gerekiyor. Yani o s\u00fcre\u00e7teki 1 dolar ile, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki 1 dolar aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc fark\u0131 var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-370735870\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n gelirlerinin avro oldu\u011fu hesab\u0131n\u0131 da ortaya koymak gerekiyor. 14 \u015eubat 2014 tarihinde dolar\/avro paritesi 1.36&#8230; 14 \u015eubat 2017\u2019de parite 1,06&#8230; Yani makastaki gerilemeyi dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda geliri avro, gideri dolar olan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn buradan da bir erime ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Toplamda cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131na bakal\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile ilgili en \u00f6nemli noktalardan birini de bu olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye eskisi gibi s\u0131cak para gelmedi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Yani 1 dolar, bizim i\u00e7in eskisinden nispi olarak daha de\u011ferli. Soyutu b\u0131rak\u0131p, somuta bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkemizin turizm geliri 32,3 milyar dolar. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki turizm geliri 22 milyar dolar. Y\u00fczde 29,7\u2019lik gelir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ra\u011fmen, cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda hi\u00e7 fena bir rakam de\u011fil. Yine de sorunu ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu tesislerin s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir y\u0131l oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu oran bile turizme neden \u00f6zel \u00f6nem vermemiz gerekti\u011fini bize bir kez daha g\u00f6sterse de, halen bir turizm master plan\u0131 yapmam\u0131\u015f olmam\u0131z, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik projeksiyon eksikli\u011fimiz ve y\u00fczde 40\u2019la yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fen oda fiyatlar\u0131m\u0131z 2017 ve sonras\u0131nda neden ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-270885838\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu seneyi atlatt\u0131k. Peki sonra ne olacak? \u0130\u015fte en \u00f6nemli eksi\u011fimiz burada ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Mesela Ba\u015fbakan Binali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m, tar\u0131mda Ziraat Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan al\u0131nan kredilerin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Son derece olumlu bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte, s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde durumu tersine \u00e7evirecek ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir eylem plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131yorsan\u0131z, t\u0131pk\u0131 turizmdeki gibi g\u00fcn kurtar\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z. \u0130\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gereken bir d\u00f6neme giriyoruz. Elde avu\u00e7takini fonda toplay\u0131p, a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in cepten \u00f6demeye neden olan ak\u0131l zorlayan projelere de\u011fil, mevcut sekt\u00f6rlere destek vermemiz \u015fart.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi takdirde topra\u011fa g\u00f6mece\u011fimiz yeni milyar dolarlar, kazanc\u0131 olmayan, verimsiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc kurtar\u0131r; ama ne cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zer; ne de \u00fclkenin tekrar \u00fcreten bir \u00f6zellik kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar. S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc bug\u00fcnk\u00fc foto\u011frafta bir, ikiden b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Kabul edip, etmemek size kalm\u0131\u015f. Ekonomi nas\u0131lsa s\u00fcrekli ger\u00e7e\u011fi y\u00fcz\u00fcm\u00fcze vuruyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. 32 milyar 600 milyon dolar. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k toplam\u0131nda bir gerileme g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan sadece rakamlara bakarsak sevinmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oluyor.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-48862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48862\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}