{"id":48635,"date":"2017-01-31T14:52:18","date_gmt":"2017-01-31T11:52:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=48635"},"modified":"2017-01-31T14:52:18","modified_gmt":"2017-01-31T11:52:18","slug":"erol-gurcan-2017-yili-1-enflasyon-raporu-basin-toplantisindan-notlar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-2017-yili-1-enflasyon-raporu-basin-toplantisindan-notlar\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; 2017 Y\u0131l\u0131 1. Enflasyon Raporu Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan Notlar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) bug\u00fcn 10:30\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile y\u0131l\u0131n 1. Enflasyon raporunu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Raporda, TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na temel olu\u015fturan iktisadi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ile makroekonomik geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeleri payla\u015f\u0131lmakta ve son \u00fc\u00e7 aydaki geli\u015fmeler do\u011frultusunda g\u00fcncellenen orta vadeli enflasyon tahminleri ile para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu sunulmaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/em> TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toplant\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar piyasa ve \u00f6zellikle kur taraf\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir etki b\u0131rakmasa da; toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kur taraf\u0131nda bir miktar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4072214687\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Enflasyon tahminleri yukar\u0131 revize edildi\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk enflasyon raporuyla birlikte Ekim 2016 d\u00f6neminde son rapora k\u0131yasla 1.5 puan art\u0131\u015fla 2017 y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE tahmini % 8.0 seviyesine;\u00a0 2018 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE tahmini 1 puan art\u0131\u015fla % 6 seviyesine revize edilirken; 2019 y\u0131l sonu itibariyle T\u00dcFE\u2019nin % 5 seviyesinde istikrar kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi. Yap\u0131lan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizeleri yerinde de\u011ferlendirmekle birlikte y\u0131l i\u00e7inde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan ziyade yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yeni revizelere ihtiya\u00e7 duyulabilme ihtimalini daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak, gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin enflasyon beklentilerinin \u015fekillendirilmesi ve y\u00f6netilebilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlar\u0131n uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Y\u0131llar itibariyle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin 2006 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle ge\u00e7ti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi kapsam\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon tahminleri ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapma g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekle birlikte; y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerinin TCMB tahminleri do\u011frultusunda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir seyir izlemekte oldu\u011fu da g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, y\u0131ll\u0131k tahminlerin yakalan\u0131p yakalanmamas\u0131ndan ziyade enflasyonun y\u0131llar itibariyle TCMB hedeflerine yak\u0131nsayan bir seyir izliyor olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu not etmekte fayda bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u0131k\u0131 Duru\u015f Vurgusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00c7etinkaya\u2019n\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve soru&amp;cevap b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda; para politikas\u0131nda at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlardan ziyade politika duru\u015funa odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi, mevcut duru\u015fun s\u0131k\u0131 olarak korundu\u011fu ve ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde il\u00e2ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma tedbirlerinin al\u0131nabilece\u011fi konusunda \u00f6nemle vurgu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yap\u0131lan bu vurgunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde TCMB\u2019nin yeniden piyasa taraf\u0131ndan bir teste maruz kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise izleyip g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik\u00e7e, risk priminde ve oynakl\u0131klarda azalma g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik\u00e7e mevcut s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi ifade edildi. Ayr\u0131ca, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde al\u0131nan para politikas\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 etkilerinin zaman i\u00e7erisinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin beklenmesi gerekti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatarak, yine de, \u015fimdiden olduk\u00e7a k\u0131sa vadede olumlu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Buna ek olarak, Finansal \u0130stikrar Komitesi\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lulu\u011funa ili\u015fkin detayl\u0131 bir inceleme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n faydal\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6nlemlere ili\u015fkin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc; bu kapsamda yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde baz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n gelebilece\u011finin sinyalini vermesi de dikkat \u00e7eken bir di\u011fer unsurdu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enflasyondaki yukar\u0131 risk, faizler i\u00e7in de yukar\u0131 potansiyel olu\u015fturuyor\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da verilen mesajlarla birlikte \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyondaki ciddi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri de dikkate alarak 16 Mart 2017 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da faizlerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ayarlamalar yap\u0131labilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmekteyiz. Ancak, bu toplant\u0131ya kadar uzun bir d\u00f6nem olmas\u0131 nedeniyle hen\u00fcz net ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir tahminde bulunmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Di\u011fer taraftan, TCMB\u2019nin mart ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda; Fed\u2019in hem ocak (31 Ocak \u2013 1 \u015eubat) hem de mart\u00a0 ay\u0131ndaki (14 \u2013 15 Mart) kararlar\u0131n\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n piyasalardaki yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra bir karar verecek olmas\u0131 da \u00f6nemli bir takvim avantaj\u0131 olarak not edilebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4000316576\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 esnas\u0131nda al\u0131nan \u00f6nemli konu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na ait daha detayl\u0131 notlar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da aktar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, TCMB taraf\u0131ndan raporun tamam\u0131na <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/5bbd3974-c011-4f0a-a8be-39592d5dc0f9\/enf-ocak2017-tam.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&amp;CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE5bbd3974-c011-4f0a-a8be-39592d5dc0f9\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">buray\u0131;<\/a><\/strong> TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00c7etinkaya\u2019n\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunuma ise <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/0060506e-cab0-41f4-8d95-88ee4b498568\/SunumB31_01_2017.pdf?MOD=AJPERES\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">buray\u0131<\/a><\/strong> t\u0131klayarak ula\u015fabilirsiniz. Y\u0131l\u0131n 2. Enflasyon Raporu 28 Nisan 2017 tarihinde yay\u0131nlanacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Varsay\u0131mlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131:<\/strong> Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem geli\u015fmeleri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Ekim Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nda 54 ABD dolar\u0131 olarak varsay\u0131lan ham petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 57 ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00fckseltildi.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130thalat fiyatlar\u0131:<\/strong> ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden ithalat fiyatlar\u0131, ham petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 miktarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellenirken; TL cinsinden ithalat fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleme oldu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131:<\/strong> 2016 g\u0131da enflasyonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken; son d\u00f6nemdeki olumsuz hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri nedeniyle 2017 i\u00e7in bir \u00f6nceki raporda % 7 olarak duyurulan g\u0131da enflasyonu % 9\u2019a revize edildi (Turizmdeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n g\u0131da talebi \u00fczerinde s\u00fcregelen etkisi ve G\u0131da Komitesi kapsam\u0131nda al\u0131nacak tedbirlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>2017 ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in tahminler \u00fcretilirken vergi ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u00f6netilen\/y\u00f6nlendirilen fiyatlar\u0131n enflasyon hedefini a\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve otomatik fiyatlama mekanizmalar\u0131 ile uyumlu olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n orta vadeli duru\u015fu i\u00e7in 2017-2019 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program projeksiyonlar\u0131 temel al\u0131nmakta.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48637 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-1.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-1-300x121.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Orta Vadeli \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-511121287\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki varsay\u0131mlardaki de\u011fi\u015fiklikle birlikte;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2017 y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE tahmininde;\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsinden ithalat fiyat\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleme 1.3 puan,<\/li>\n<li>\u0130\u00e7 talepteki toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6nceki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcden daha yava\u015f olabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler nedeniyle \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleme -0,4 puan ,<\/li>\n<li>2017 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u0131da enflasyonu tahminlerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleme 0,4 puan,<\/li>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l sonu enflasyonunun \u00f6nceki tahmine g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f 0,2 puan<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>olmak \u00fczere toplam 1.5 puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131 revize yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2018 y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu tahmininde;\n<ul>\n<li>TL cinsinden ithalat fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f 1 puan;<\/li>\n<li>enflasyon e\u011filimindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f 0,2 puan katk\u0131 yaparken;<\/li>\n<li>\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellemenin bu etkilerin 0,2 puan\u0131n\u0131 telafi edece\u011fi<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>de\u011ferlendirilerek 1 puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131 revize yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin % 70 Olas\u0131l\u0131kla;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2017 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 % 8.0 olmak \u00fczere % 6.6 ile % 9.4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda,\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6nceki: 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 % 6.5 olmak \u00fczere %70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla % 5.0 ile % 8.0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 % 6.0 olmak \u00fczere % 4.2 ile % 7.8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda,\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6nceki: 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 % 5 seviyesinde istikrar kazanacak,<\/li>\n<li>2018 y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcs\u00fc enflasyona odakl\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, birikimli d\u00f6viz kuru etkilerinin ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131 ve iktisadi faaliyetin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyredece\u011fi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme dayanmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda % 5.0 d\u00fczeyinde dengelenecek.\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6nceki: Orta vadede ise % 5 d\u00fczeyinde<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48636 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-2.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-enflasyon-raporu-2-300x156.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan Noktalar<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>K\u00fcresel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Kas\u0131m 2016\u2019daki ABD se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler artarak devam etti.<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019de destekleyici maliye politikas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ivme kazanaca\u011f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.\n<ul>\n<li>Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde;\n<ul>\n<li>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke faiz oranlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fan\u0131r ve ABD dolar\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken;<\/li>\n<li>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yurti\u00e7i G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>K\u00fcresel piyasalarda ya\u015fanan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve belirsizlikler 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde yurt i\u00e7i finansal piyasalar\u0131n dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izlemesine neden oldu.\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye d\u00f6viz kuru ve piyasa faizlerinde di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden olumsuz ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>Bu d\u00f6nemde, di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den de portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131 ve tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar hisse senedi piyasas\u0131na g\u00f6re daha belirgin oldu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Para Politikas\u0131<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>2016\u2019da enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131, d\u00f6viz likiditesinde dengeleyici ve finansal istikrar\u0131 destekleyici politika duru\u015fu korundu.\n<ul>\n<li>Ya\u015fanan bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nemli \u015foka ra\u011fmen 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Mart ve Eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc ad\u0131mlarla 250 bp indirilerek para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecine devam edildi.<\/li>\n<li>Sonraki aylarda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak artan belirsizlik ve kur taraf\u0131nda artan tansiyon nedeniyle ekim ve aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidilmezken; kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda k\u00fcresel belirsizliklerdeki art\u0131\u015f ve d\u00f6viz kuru hareketlerinin, enflasyon beklentilerini ve fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bozmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek amac\u0131yla, bir miktar parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirerek marjinal fonlama faizini 25 baz puan, bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 ise 50 baz puan y\u00fckseltilerek 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez konvansiyonel bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131m\u0131 at\u0131ld\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda ise, makro \u00e7er\u00e7eve ve iktisadi temeller de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi halde d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketlilik kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dinamik ve farkl\u0131 likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00e7er\u00e7evesini uygulamaya koyuldu.\n<ul>\n<li>12 Ocak 2017 tarihinden bu yana 1 hafta vadeli repo ihalelerine ara verildi<\/li>\n<li>16 Ocak\u2019tan itibaren marjinal fonlaman\u0131n da s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcnlerde sistemin fonlama ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lanmakta.<\/li>\n<li>17 Ocak\u2019ta T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz likiditesi y\u00f6netimindeki esnekli\u011fi ve ara\u00e7 \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fini art\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 Depolar\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 D\u00f6viz Depolar\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>24 Ocak tarihindeki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketlili\u011fin etkisiyle enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde olu\u015fabilecek bozulmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesine karar verilerek; marjinal fonlama faizini 75 baz puan art\u0131rarak % 9.25\u2019e, ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 ise 100 baz puan art\u0131rarak % 11\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>TCMB, temel amac\u0131 olan fiyat istikrar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda elindeki b\u00fct\u00fcn ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanmaya devam edecek. \u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulmas\u0131 halinde ilave parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapabilece\u011fi gibi; d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda iktisadi temellerle uyumlu olmayan sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z fiyat olu\u015fumlar\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmesi halinde likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ile gerekli tedbirler al\u0131nacak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Enflasyon <\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Temmuz ay\u0131 sonras\u0131nda kademeli bir yava\u015flama e\u011filimi sergileyen t\u00fcketici enflasyonu Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7 ile Ekim Enflasyon Raporu tahminlerinin alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k ve t\u00fct\u00fcn fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle \u00f6nemli bir oranda artarak y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 8,53 ile tahmin \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tamamlad\u0131. \u0130\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da ve t\u00fct\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu. Bu geli\u015fmede T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve vergi ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n<ul>\n<li>TL\u2019deki belirgin zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ilk yans\u0131malar\u0131 kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011fu enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde g\u00f6zlendi. Bu etkiye ek olarak ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fckselmesiyle enerji enflasyonu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. D\u00f6viz kurundaki art\u0131\u015f temel mal grubu enflasyonunu da olumsuz etkiledi.<\/li>\n<li>Ba\u015fta t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik olmak \u00fczere son d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lan vergi ayarlamalar\u0131 enflasyon \u00fczerinde belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki yapt\u0131. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda otomobillerde \u00d6zel T\u00fcketim Vergisi (\u00d6TV) d\u00fczenlemesi yap\u0131ld\u0131; Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ise alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin \u00d6TV oran\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131ndaki vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ikinci kez y\u00fckseltildi. B\u00f6ylelikle, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda vergi ayarlamalar\u0131 ve y\u00f6netilen\/y\u00f6nlendirilen fiyatlar\u0131n enflasyona katk\u0131s\u0131 tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\n<ul>\n<li>Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde temel mal grubu fiyatlar\u0131 alt gruplar baz\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131k arz etti;\n<ul>\n<li>giyim, mobilya gibi gruplarda enflasyon yava\u015flarken i\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n nispeten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerde enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim kaydedildi.<\/li>\n<li>Hizmet enflasyonu, g\u0131da enflasyonundaki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve talep ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f seyre kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle reel birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri ve \u0130stanbul ili ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kiralarda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu.<\/li>\n<li>Y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar belirginle\u015fti, \u00f6zellikle Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda yay\u0131l\u0131m endekslerine g\u00f6re fiyat art\u0131rma e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerin ana e\u011filimi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ile birlikte yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir seyir izledi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc iktisadi faaliyetin s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 etkisine ra\u011fmen vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen maliyet y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki k\u0131smi y\u00fckseli\u015f sonucunda bozuldu.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130ktisadi faaliyet y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00f6nemlik bazda daral\u0131rken (\u00e7eyreklik bazda -% 2.7, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda &#8211; % 1.8), mevcut g\u00f6stergeler d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ana e\u011filimde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etmekte.\n<ul>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, uzat\u0131lan bayram tatilleri ve Temmuz ay\u0131 ortas\u0131ndaki olumsuzluklara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen i\u015fg\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n faaliyet \u00fczerinde olumsuz etkileri g\u00f6zlendi. Bu sebeple, iktisadi faaliyetteki ana e\u011filimin yava\u015flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmakla birlikte a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin ima etti\u011fi kadar zay\u0131f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n<ul>\n<li>Normal takvim etkilerine ek olarak, s\u00f6z konusu i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n da etkileri d\u0131\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte iktisadi faaliyetin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daralma yerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti\u011fini tahmin ediliyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l\u0131 son \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler, iktisadi faaliyette, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n telafisine ba\u011fl\u0131 teknik toparlanma haricinde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.\n<ul>\n<li>Al\u0131nan tedbir ve uygulamaya koyulan te\u015fviklerin etkisiyle artan kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, vergi ve d\u00f6viz kuru art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentiler dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131na talebi canland\u0131rd\u0131.\n<ul>\n<li>Ancak, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mallar haricinde kalan \u00fcr\u00fcnlere olan talep zay\u0131f seyretti ve son \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim talebindeki toparlanman\u0131n sekt\u00f6rel yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki toparlanma ise t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha yava\u015f oldu. Bu bilgiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yurt i\u00e7i talepte son \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerinin cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerinde s\u00fcregelen olumlu etkisinin azalmas\u0131 beklenmekle birlikte, Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n net ihracata deste\u011finin d\u00f6nemlik toparlanmay\u0131 destekleyece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Cari A\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olumlu etkisinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde kademeli olarak azalmas\u0131, ancak net mal ihracat\u0131ndaki toparlanma ile iyile\u015fmenin devam edece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, turizm g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde kayda de\u011fer bir iyile\u015fme sinyali olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, al\u0131nan destekleyici te\u015fvik ve tedbirlerin katk\u0131s\u0131yla iktisadi faaliyetteki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanma e\u011filiminin devam etmesi bekleniyor.\n<ul>\n<li>Son d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile di\u011fer i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmeler sonucunda belirsizlik alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinin, yurt i\u00e7i talebi hem t\u00fcketim hem yat\u0131r\u0131m kanal\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilmesi muhtemel.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler, sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f seyri ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturmakta.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6te yandan son d\u00f6nemde al\u0131nan te\u015fvik ve tedbirlerin olas\u0131 gecikmeli etkileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir risk unsuru olarak belirtilebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Cari denge taraf\u0131nda iyile\u015fmenin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edilmekte. \u00c7evre \u00fclkelerle normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flayan ili\u015fkiler, Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerinin talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam etmesi ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 etkilerine ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131n pazar \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme esnekli\u011finin olumlu etkileriyle cari dengenin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda iyile\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kredi B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Finansal sistemi destekleyici makroihtiyati politikalar, TCMB likidite tedbirlerinin gecikmeli etkileri ve kamu te\u015fvikleri sayesinde, son aylarda kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131nda toparlanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6zlendi\n<ul>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde,\n<ul>\n<li>Ticari kredilerin TL krediler kaynakl\u0131 olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir oranda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki k\u0131smi toparlanma ve yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemelerin gecikmeli etkileriyle t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. T\u00fcketici kredilerinin alt kalemlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genele yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde kredi ve mevduat faizlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n etkisiyle 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 son \u00e7eyre\u011finde duraksad\u0131 ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k devam etti. \u00d6te yandan, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u015fletmelere verilen TL kredi faizleri y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde destekleyici kamu politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle geriledi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Raporda \u00e7e\u015fitli g\u00fcncel konulara ili\u015fkin analizlerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kutular<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kutu 1:<\/strong> Son D\u00f6nemde K\u00fcresel Belirsizlikler ve Etkileri &#8211; Sayfa 24<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 2:<\/strong> T\u00dcFE ve Alt Gruplarda \u0130thalat Fiyatlar\u0131 ve D\u00f6viz Kuru Ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi \u00dczerine \u2013 Sayfa 39<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 3:<\/strong> T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in Bir \u0130ktisadi Belirsizlik G\u00f6stergesi \u2013 Sayfa 51<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 4:<\/strong> Alternatif G\u00f6stergelerle \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na Bak\u0131\u015f \u2013 Sayfa 55<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 5:<\/strong> Reel D\u0131\u015f Ticaret A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Milli Gelir \u0130li\u015fkisinin Zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Kredi B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u2013 Sayfa 60<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 6:<\/strong> A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa \u0130\u015flemleri Menkul K\u0131ymet Portf\u00f6y\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve Kesin Al\u0131m \u0130\u015flemleri &#8211; Sayfa 78<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 7:<\/strong> Kamu Harcama \u00c7arpan\u0131n\u0131n \u0130\u015f \u00c7evrimlerine Duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Sayfa 87<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kutu 8:<\/strong> 2016 Y\u0131l Sonu Enflasyon Tahminlerinin De\u011ferlendirilmesi Sayfa 97<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) bug\u00fcn 10:30\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile y\u0131l\u0131n 1. Enflasyon raporunu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Raporda, TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na temel olu\u015fturan iktisadi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[296],"class_list":["post-48635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-tuketici-fiyatlari-endeksi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48635\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}