{"id":4859,"date":"2011-09-09T08:05:55","date_gmt":"2011-09-09T05:05:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4859"},"modified":"2011-09-09T09:23:10","modified_gmt":"2011-09-09T06:23:10","slug":"durgunluga-karsi-durma-marji-dusuk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/durgunluga-karsi-durma-marji-dusuk\/","title":{"rendered":"Durgunlu\u011fa Kar\u015f\u0131 Durma Marj\u0131 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel ekonomide bir durgunluk e\u011filimi ba\u015fg\u00f6sterdi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ilk beklentilere k\u0131yasla\u00a0 s\u00f6zkonusu\u00a0 durgunluk e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve yayg\u0131n oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de geli\u015fmekte olan par\u00e7alar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 geriliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2517026745\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde bu gerileme g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131zlardan geriye d\u00fc\u015fmek \u015feklinde\u00a0 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in, fiili b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131larla, adeta resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerle ifade edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. En az\u0131ndan bu \u00fclkelerde b\u00f6yle bir resesyon beklentisinin ve risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fdu\u011funu ve yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise durum farkl\u0131. Bunlarda da b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z kesti, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bilindi\u011fi gibi bu \u00fclkelerde\u00a0 kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 evresinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksekti. \u015eimdiki yava\u015flama\u00a0 bu y\u00fcksek oranlardan geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu \u00fclkelede b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 sadece b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunun k\u0131smen yitirildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde bir resesyon beklentisi ya da korkusu hen\u00fcz s\u00f6zkonusu\u00a0 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015fl\u0131yor, kimi \u00fclkelerde resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor olmas\u0131 bu s\u00fcreci durduracak, giderek tersine \u00e7evirecek politika aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Ancak bu alanda da geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin hem ko\u015fullar\u0131 hem de oyun alanlar\u0131 farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Resesyon tehdidi, \u015fimdilik,\u00a0 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler ( \u00f6zellikle AB ve ABD)\u00a0 i\u00e7in s\u00f6zkonusu. Bu durumda bu \u00fclkelerde iktisat\u00a0 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n resesyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geriletecek, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi canland\u0131racak y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekiyor. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 gibi k\u00fcresel kriz s\u00fcrecinde aynen b\u00f6yle yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ko\u015fullarda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 toplam talebi destekleyecek \u015fekilde yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesi, yani geni\u015fleyici politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi bekleniyor. Maliye politikas\u0131nda vergileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, harcamalar\u0131 artt\u0131ran bir y\u00f6ne d\u00f6n\u00fclece\u011fi,\u00a0 para politikas\u0131nda da faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp, parasal geni\u015flemeye gidilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor bu.<\/p>\n<p>Teorik olarak do\u011frusu bu. Beklenen de bu. Ancak \u015fimdilerde geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere hakim olan ko\u015fullar\u0131n bu t\u00fcr bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn olas\u0131 etkilerini ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4243918016\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dikkat ederseniz bu\u00a0 kez\u00a0 durgunluk ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme\u00a0 tehdidi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n zaten dibe vurdu\u011fu, parasal geni\u015flemenin de en u\u00e7 noktada oldu\u011fu bir ortamda ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. Yani, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde para politikas\u0131nda ek bir gev\u015feme yapma, faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitme\u00a0 marj\u0131 adeta yok gibi.<\/p>\n<p>Maliye politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da benzer bir durum var. Bu alanda da gev\u015feme marj\u0131 olduk\u00e7a\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bilindi\u011fi gibi, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde (\u00f6zellikle AB ve ABD&#8217;de) b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra bor\u00e7luluk ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00e7evrilmesi gibi bir risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselten bir sorun daha var. Bu sorun geni\u015fleyici bir mali politikaya kayma imkan\u0131n\u0131, yani maliye politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme marj\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde\u00a0 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Reseyon tehdidi alt\u0131nda olan geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin gerekli iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131 uygulama ve sonu\u00e7 alma imkan\u0131n\u0131n daralm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da baz\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1529122144\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde bu defa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunun, \u00f6ncekilere k\u0131yasla, daha uzun s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve d\u00fcnya ticaretinin de uzun s\u00fcre duraklayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da g\u00f6rece yava\u015f tempoda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. S\u00f6zkonusu sonu\u00e7lardan birisi budur.<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr uzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6reli durgunluklar\u0131n ve daralmalar\u0131n\u00a0 bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu bilinmektedir. Geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposundaki yava\u015flama hen\u00fcz resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na gelmemi\u015ftir. Bu \u00fclkelerde gerekti\u011finde gev\u015fek politikalara kayma marj\u0131 da g\u00f6rece daha y\u00fcksektir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan par\u00e7as\u0131nda bug\u00fcn itibariyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir daralma riski\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. Ancak geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde uzun s\u00fcrecek bir durgunluk-daralma dinami\u011finin bu \u00fclkelere bula\u015fmas\u0131 da ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin de durgunlu\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 durma marj\u0131n\u0131 daraltacak ve sonu\u00e7ta bunlar da durgunluk-daralma sarmal\u0131na yakalanacakt\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla, biz de dahil, bir \u00e7ok \u00fclke a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sonu\u00e7 bu olacakt\u0131r. Bunun geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7ine yuvarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7maz\u0131n \u00fcretti\u011fi en berbat sonu\u00e7 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel ekonomide bir durgunluk e\u011filimi ba\u015fg\u00f6sterdi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ilk beklentilere k\u0131yasla\u00a0 s\u00f6zkonusu\u00a0 durgunluk e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve yayg\u0131n oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}