{"id":48229,"date":"2017-01-04T14:17:17","date_gmt":"2017-01-04T11:17:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=48229"},"modified":"2017-01-04T18:42:02","modified_gmt":"2017-01-04T15:42:02","slug":"ekonomi-finans-dersleri-borsa-2017de-borsada-neler-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonomi-finans-dersleri-borsa-2017de-borsada-neler-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomi Finans Dersleri-III: BORSA &#8211; 2017&#8217;de Borsada Neler Olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda dolar\/TL kuruna ili\u015fkin olarak k\u00fcresel, yerel varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 vermi\u015f ve 2017 i\u00e7inde dolar\/TL kurunun olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00fczerine bir yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu yaz\u0131da da borsay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirece\u011fim.<\/strong><\/em> 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda borsan\u0131n getirisi ne olabilir? Sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler mi ya\u015far\u0131z, yoksa 2017 borsa i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek getirinin sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yat\u0131r\u0131m alan\u0131 m\u0131 olur? \u0130sterseniz \u00f6nce baz\u0131 temel bilgiler vereyim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2480771414\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hisse senedini sat\u0131n alman\u0131n en \u00f6nemli sebebi, bir \u015firkete ortak olmakt\u0131r. Bir insan neden bir \u015firkete ortak olmak ister? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu \u015firketin \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p para kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ve bu k\u00e2ra ortak olmak ister. B\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bu hesab\u0131 yaparken, alternatif getirileri de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurur. \u00d6rne\u011fin banka bir y\u0131lda %10 faiz verirken, e\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bir \u015firketin hissesine yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak %15 kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsa, hisseye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapabilir. Baz\u0131 insanlar ise borsaya girmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri \u00f6rne\u011fin %20 kazanmak isterler. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc borsa riskli bir yerdir ve getiri cazip olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu a\u015famada yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n hisseye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde iki t\u00fcr kazanc\u0131 vard\u0131r. Birincisi, hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinden dolay\u0131 elde edece\u011fi kazan\u00e7 (sermaye kazanc\u0131) ikincisi de hissesi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alaca\u011f\u0131 k\u00e2r pay\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bir bankaya e\u011fer 100 bin TL&#8217;yi 1 y\u0131l vade ile \u00a0yat\u0131rm\u0131\u015fsan\u0131z ve faiz %10 ise, y\u0131l sonunda 110 bin TL&#8217;niz olur. \u00a0Ayn\u0131 \u015feyi hisse i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Bir hisseye 10 TL&#8217;den \u00a0100 bin TL tutar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonunda 1 TL temett\u00fc (k\u00e2r pay\u0131) ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. E\u011fer hisse fiyat\u0131 1 y\u0131l sonra 11 TL olmu\u015fsa, sizin \u00a0getiriniz %10 olmu\u015ftur. <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><em>(Not: yaz\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6nceki versiyonunda hisse fiyat\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmezse.. \u015feklinde yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m d\u00fczelttim. twitter&#8217;dan (@____PASA____) rumuzlu Hakan beye uyar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in t\u015fkr ederim. )<\/em><\/span> Fakat bu s\u0131rada hisse 10 TL&#8217;den 13 TL&#8217;ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve 1 TL k\u00e2r pay\u0131 alm\u0131\u015fsan\u0131z (D\u0130KKAT!!! hisse fiyat\u0131 kar pay\u0131 da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda 12 TL&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015fer) sizin kazanc\u0131n\u0131z da %20 sermaye kazanc\u0131 + %10 temett\u00fc kazanc\u0131 olmak \u00fczere %30 olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu konuya bilip bilmeden \u00e7ok itiraz eden olacakt\u0131r. \u015eirketlerin hisse fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131kla hi\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, borsan\u0131n kurtlar sofras\u0131 oldu\u011funu, para babalar\u0131n\u0131n kendilerini yoldu\u011funu ve borsan\u0131n bir kumar yeri oldu\u011funa dair \u00e7ok fazla yorum analiz yapan olacakt\u0131r. Maalesef insan\u0131m\u0131z bilgi sahibi olmadan fikir sahibi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in b\u00f6yle oluyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bir ka\u00e7 grafik verdim. Bu grafiklerde bir \u015firketin esas faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131, net k\u00e2r\u0131 ve piyasa de\u011feri g\u00f6steriliyor. Birlikte bakal\u0131m, ger\u00e7ekten de k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran \u015firketlerin hisseleri mi de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor yoksa, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131ktan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir \u015fekilde hisseler kendi kendilerine mi hareket ediyor?<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da grafikleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k halde veriyorum. Bu grafiklerde k\u00e2r ve piyasa de\u011ferlerinin nas\u0131l hareket etti\u011finden ziyade, y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran ve k\u00e2rlar\u0131 \u00e7ok dalgal\u0131 olan, genelde zarar eden \u015firketlerin piyasa de\u011ferlerinin nas\u0131l ARTAMADI\u011eINA bak\u0131n. <strong>&#8220;Kendine hayr\u0131 olmayan \u015firketin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131na hayr\u0131 olmaz&#8221;<\/strong>. \u015eirket isimleri grafi\u011fin alt\u0131nda serilerin a\u00e7\u0131klama k\u0131sm\u0131nda bulunuyor (\u00d6nemli not: Bir \u015firketin karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile piyasa de\u011feri aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7 bir ili\u015fki bulam\u0131yorsan\u0131z, o hisse \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla manip\u00fcle edilen bir hissedir ve manip\u00fclat\u00f6rler size ekmek yedirmez. Sonra da buras\u0131 kumar yeri, kurtlar sofras\u0131 demeyin. Borsa kumar yeri de\u011fildir ama kendini yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 zanneden kumarc\u0131dan ge\u00e7ilmiyor)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/BIMAS-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48239\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/BIMAS-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/BIMAS-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/BIMAS-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/KARSN-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48240\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/KARSN-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/KARSN-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/KARSN-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TOASO-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TOASO-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TOASO-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TOASO-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/VKING-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48242\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/VKING-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/VKING-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/VKING-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TTRAK-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48243\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TTRAK-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TTRAK-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/TTRAK-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/ALYAG-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48244\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/ALYAG-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/ALYAG-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/ALYAG-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/HEKTS-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48245\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/HEKTS-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/HEKTS-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/HEKTS-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/METRO-EFK-NK-PD.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48246\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/METRO-EFK-NK-PD.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/METRO-EFK-NK-PD.png 681w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/METRO-EFK-NK-PD-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u0131ra geldi Borsan\u0131n geneline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer bir \u015firket k\u00e2r ettik\u00e7e piyasa de\u011feri art\u0131yorsa, ve borsa \u0130stanbul endeksi (BIST) bu \u015firketlerden olu\u015fuyorsa, \u015firketlerin genelinin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman, borsa artacakt\u0131r. \u015eirketlerin mutlak de\u011fer olarak k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran \u015fey ise sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artmas\u0131na sebep olan iki temel fakt\u00f6r vard\u0131r. Bunlar mikro fakt\u00f6rler, makro fakt\u00f6rlerdir. Mikro fakt\u00f6rlere sat\u0131\u015f, pazarlama reklam vs gibi \u015firketin kendi kontrol edebildi\u011fi fakt\u00f6rleri \u00f6rnek verebiliriz. Makro fakt\u00f6r ise B\u00dcY\u00dcME&#8217;dir. E\u011fer bir \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yeterli de\u011filse, istisnalar olmak ko\u015fuluyla bu \u00fclkedeki \u015firketlerin sat\u0131\u015f hacmi ve mutlak k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n<p>2017&#8217;de borsa ne olur? sorusuna bakarken en acil cevaplanmas\u0131 gereken soru B\u00dcY\u00dcME&#8217;nin ne olaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri revize edildi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;ne uyum \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00f6ntem de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri uyguland\u0131. Fakat, TUIK yeni hesaplanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 verirken, 2016&#8217;n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde eski seriye g\u00f6re %ka\u00e7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vermedi. Halbuki; en az 1-2 sene eski ve yeni seriyi birlikte devam ettirmeliydi. En b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ise, fiili olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz durumla, yeni seri b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri uyu\u015fmuyor. \u00a0Tasarrufumuz eksik derken bir anda tasarruflar\u0131n %13&#8217;lerden %20&#8217;lere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n %20&#8217;lerden %30&#8217;lara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 kolay a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2758444815\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7enlerde Erol G\u00fcrcan&#8217;\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2016&#8217;n\u0131n \u00f6zeti \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7ok g\u00fczel olmu\u015ftu (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2016\/12\/31\/erol-gurcan-turkiye-ekonomisi-ve-piyasalarin-2016-yilligi\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Yaz\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 okumak i\u00e7in buray\u0131 t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/a>). Yaz\u0131s\u0131nda verdi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme grafi\u011fini ben de veriyorum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-2016-De\u011ferlendirme-4.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48170\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-2016-De\u011ferlendirme-4.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-2016-De\u011ferlendirme-4.png 486w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-2016-De\u011ferlendirme-4-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ekonomimiz y\u0131lda %4-5 \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde borsa en az %20-25 getiri sa\u011flard\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ki; 2013&#8217;te ekonomimiz ortalama %8 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, ama borsa %13.31 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2014&#8217;de b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 bir anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve ortalama 4 civar\u0131na geliyor ama borsa %26 art\u0131yor. \u00a02015&#8217;de b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlan\u0131yor ve ortalama 6 seviyelerini ge\u00e7iyor ama borsa %16 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u00a0A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik borsan\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k hareketlerini veriyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/borsa-yillik.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48247\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/borsa-yillik.png\" width=\"530\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/borsa-yillik.png 650w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/borsa-yillik-300x212.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Borsa hi\u00e7 bir y\u0131l arka arkaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapmam\u0131\u015f. 2016&#8217;ya girerken bu grafi\u011fi vermi\u015ftim ve 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in borsan\u0131n 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda %20-25 civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f yapabilece\u011fini (85-90 bin aras\u0131na gelece\u011fini) yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Araya 15 temmuz, Rusya u\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme meselesi, ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131 ve Suriye sava\u015f\u0131 girdi ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 kay\u0131p y\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekirken 2016&#8217;da borsa %9 (%8.94) artt\u0131. E\u011fer biri bana 2016&#8217;da olan olaylar\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2016&#8217;ya girerken s\u00f6yleseydi, herhalde en az %15-20 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekledi\u011fimi s\u00f6ylerdim.<\/p>\n<p>Borsa iki y\u0131l arka arkaya hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015f ama, \u00a02005 \u00f6ncesinde arka arkaya 3 y\u0131l artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlar olmu\u015f. 2009 ve 2010&#8217;da iki y\u0131l arka arkaya artm\u0131\u015f. Ama 2010 sonras\u0131nda bir ileri bir geri yapm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. E\u011fer bu seri bozulmazsa, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 borsan\u0131n 78.168 seviyesinde kapatmas\u0131 beklenmeli. E\u011fer seri bozulmam\u0131\u015fsa Borsa 2016&#8217;da art\u0131da kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u015fimdi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131 m\u0131? \u00a0Asl\u0131nda bu t\u00fcr sorular ho\u015f de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc insan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na ba\u015flarken aynen Dolar\/TL kurunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi \u00a0varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ortaya koymal\u0131 ve bu varsay\u0131mlara g\u00f6re tahmin yapmal\u0131y\u0131z. E\u011fer bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 zay\u0131f buluyorsan\u0131z buradaki tahminlere asla g\u00fcvenmemelisiniz. Sizler de kendi varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ortaya koyarak kendi senaryonuzu olu\u015fturabilirsiniz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1632235495\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda ortaya koydum (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2017\/01\/03\/2017de-dolar-ne-olacak\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2017\/01\/03\/2017de-dolar-ne-olacak\/<\/a> ). Bu y\u00fczden burada tekrar ederek yaz\u0131y\u0131 uzatmak istemiyorum. Orada yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 baz alarak \u015fu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrebilirim;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Trump bl\u00f6f yapm\u0131yor. \u00c7in ile ticari ili\u015fkilerine ciddi k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar getirirken, di\u011fer g\u00fcney Amerika \u00fclkeleri de korumac\u0131l\u0131ktan nasibini alacaklar.<\/li>\n<li>ABD&#8217;nin ithalat\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ihracat yaparak kazand\u0131klar\u0131 dolar miktar\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak.<\/li>\n<li>Dolar sadece ABD ile ticaret yapmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lm\u0131yor. E\u011fer Asya \u00fclkeleri, Afrika \u00fclkeleri, Avustralya, Kanada veya \u0130ngiltere \u00a0ile ticaret yap\u0131yorsan\u0131z, ikili anla\u015fmalar yapmad\u0131ktan sonra, yine dolara ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z var. \u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla korumac\u0131 politikalar nedeniyle d\u00fcnyada dolar k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015f g\u00f6sterecek.<\/li>\n<li>Dolara de\u011fer kazand\u0131racak bir fakt\u00f6r de, ithalat vergilerinin artmas\u0131 ve i\u00e7 piyasada gelir vergilerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek, alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, enflasyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ivmelenmesine sebep olarak FED&#8217;in en az 3 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmak zorunda kalacak olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Sonu\u00e7 olarak ABD dolar\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclke paralar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmaya devam edecek ve dolar endeksi (DXY) ilk alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde en az\u0131ndan 110 seviyesine ula\u015facak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise 120&#8217;lere do\u011fru hareketini devam ettirebilir.<\/li>\n<li>Dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131, ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltici etki yaparken, ithalat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etki yapacakt\u0131r. Fakat, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseltici etki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcm korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerine ra\u011fmen, ABD&#8217;nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi bozulmaya devam ederse, \u00f6yle bir noktaya gelinir ki; ABD&#8217;nin bor\u00e7lar\u0131 sorgulanmaya ba\u015flan\u0131r. Zaten Trump alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lanma limitini de art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Fakat, DXY endeksi 120&#8217;ye gelmeden bu t\u00fcr bir sorgulama olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00a0ABD bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n 2017&#8217;de de\u011fil de 2018&#8217;de sorgulanmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 ABD i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve bor\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ivemelendi\u011fi bir y\u0131l olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcm bu ahval ve \u015ferait i\u00e7inde dolar daha az bulunacak bir para olaca\u011f\u0131 ve di\u011fer paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, y\u00fckl\u00fc d\u00f6viz borcu olan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evirmekte zorlanacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Dolar di\u011fer paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken TL&#8217;ye kar\u015f\u0131 da ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc geli\u015fmeler olmad\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011fer kazanacakt\u0131r. Bu durum i\u00e7 piyasam\u0131zda gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrmesine neden olacak ve toplam harcamalar\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ithalat\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle de \u00fcretime d\u00f6n\u00fck makine te\u00e7hizat ithalat\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecektir. D\u00f6vizin dalgal\u0131 ve s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu bir ortamda enflasyon da art\u0131yorsa, \u00fcretece\u011fi mal\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemeyecek olan m\u00fcte\u015febbis, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak istemez.<\/li>\n<li>S\u00f6z\u00fcn k\u0131sas\u0131 hem i\u00e7 talep hem de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda B\u00dcY\u00dcME zay\u0131flar. Bu durum borsadaki \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azlamas\u0131 demektir. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden direkt olarak etkilenmektedir. BIST-100 i\u00e7inde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 2017&#8217;de \u00e7ok daha iyi bir karl\u0131l\u0131k performans\u0131 g\u00f6stermesini beklemek yanl\u0131\u015f olur. Benzer \u015fekilde holdingler de \u00e7ok fazla prim yapamayabilir. Ama 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracata d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u015firketlerden, neredeyse tekel konumuna yak\u0131n olanlar, k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rabilirler.<\/li>\n<li>Trump&#8217;\u0131n korumac\u0131l\u0131k politikalar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 etkisinin \u015fu an k\u00fcresel piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan hafife al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00c7in ile bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131na girilmesi, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin de korumac\u0131l\u0131k politikalar\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller k\u00fcresel borsalarda \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere sebep olabilir. Apple&#8217;a Avrupa Birli\u011finin verdi\u011fi cezay\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda ABD&#8217;nin de Deutsche Bank&#8217;a yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlay\u0131n. Trump&#8217;l\u0131 y\u0131llar \u015fu ana kadar izledi\u011fimiz ve bildi\u011fimizden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 olmaya adayd\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Avrupa&#8217;da se\u00e7imlerde radikal siyasilerin zafer kazanmas\u0131 da piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7in e\u011fer ABD tahvillerini satmaya ba\u015flarsa, k\u00fcresel tahvil balonundan hava ka\u00e7maya ba\u015flar ki; bu durum \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7ar ama varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m i\u00e7inde \u00c7in&#8217;in ABD&#8217;ye kar\u015f\u0131 bu kozu kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>SONU\u00c7<\/strong>: BIST-100 endeksi dolar baz\u0131nda 2.15$ seviyesinde bulunuyor. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda BIST-100 endeksinin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direnci 2.70$-2.90$ aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. En g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek ise 1.50-1.75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olup, 2017 i\u00e7inde bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi ve bunun da d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00a0Yani 2017&#8217;de borsa genel endeksi i\u00e7in 2.70$ a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa PAHALI, 1.50$-1.70$ aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gelirse UCUZ denilebilir. Fakat \u015funu da belirtelim ki, 2$ seviyesinde \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir psikolojik destek var. E\u011fer borsa 1.50-170 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gidecekse, bu durum 2$ seviyesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede (1 ay gibi ) olabilir. Fakat \u015funu unutmay\u0131n. Hisseler borsadan ayr\u0131\u015fabiliyorlar. 2017&#8217;de her \u015fartta en az %30-40 getiri sa\u011flayabilecek hisseler var. Endeksi b\u0131rak\u0131p hisse se\u00e7imine odaklan\u0131n. Bak\u0131n, 2013&#8217;ten beri borsa hi\u00e7 bir \u015fey kazand\u0131rm\u0131yor ama 2013&#8217;de 1.50 civar\u0131nda olan SODA 5.43 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Buna bezer daha bir\u00e7ok hisse g\u00f6sterilebilir. sizler \u015fu soruyu sorun: &#8220;Borsa bir \u015fey kazand\u0131rmazken, SODA neden borsay\u0131 3&#8217;e, 4&#8217;e katlam\u0131\u015f? (Cevab\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da)<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn twitter&#8217;dan borsaya sat\u0131\u015f geldi\u011fini belirttim ve endeksin 75.000-75.500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gerilemesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu ama, bu sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131 rallisi \u00f6ncesinde bir silkeleme olabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131m. Bunun \u00fczerine hakl\u0131 olarak &#8220;Hocam ralli iddial\u0131 olmuyor mu&#8221; diye soran arkada\u015flar oldu. Ayr\u0131ca y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131 rallisi nedir sorular\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131m. Finans literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde &#8220;Ocak etkisi&#8221; ad\u0131 verilen bir konu vard\u0131r. Ocak ay\u0131nda borsalar\u0131n normalde pozitif getiri sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmektedir. Bu y\u00fczden de Ocak ay\u0131nda borsalar\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fine inan\u0131l\u0131r. Bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda da b\u00f6yle bir etkinin oldu\u011fu ortaya konuyor. Ama biz bizim borsam\u0131za bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte borsan\u0131n y\u0131llar itibariyle Ocak ay\u0131ndaki getirilerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. Yani biten y\u0131l\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ba\u015flayan y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki getiriye bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48249\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI1.png\" width=\"580\" height=\"391\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI1.png 662w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI1-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, \u00a021 y\u0131l\u0131n 13 y\u0131l\u0131nda pozitif getiri sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f (Dikkat hen\u00fcz 2017&#8217;nin nas\u0131l kapanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hesaplamaya dahil edilmedi). Burada 21 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 pek anlaml\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 1990&#8217;l\u0131 y\u0131llarda y\u00fcksek getiriler var. Ama alm\u0131\u015f olsak bile ortalama getiri %4.8 oluyor. 2003&#8217;ten itibaren bug\u00fcne kadarki verileri al\u0131rsak ortalama getiri -%0.8 olurken, 2010&#8217;dan bu yana bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda %1.5 civar\u0131nda oluyor. Yani pek anlaml\u0131 bir art\u0131 getiri son 10 y\u0131lda olu\u015fmam\u0131\u015f. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu y\u0131l Ocak rallisi olur mu? sorusuna bu grafik &#8220;olsa bile Ocak ay\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ortalama olarak %-1 ile %2 aras\u0131nda olmas\u0131 beklenir&#8221; diyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki grafikten farkl\u0131 olarak, bazen \u015f\u00f6yle de olabiliyor. Ocak ay\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015f Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re eksi olabiliyor ama Ocak ay\u0131nda borsa y\u00fckselip sonra kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015febiliyor. Yani Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 varsayal\u0131m ki 78 bin kapanm\u0131\u015f olsun. Ocak ay\u0131nda 82 bin seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra e\u011fer 77 bin seviyesinden kapan\u0131\u015f olmu\u015fsa Ocak ay\u0131 getirisi negatif oluyor ama Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde bir ralli ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f olabiliyor. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte Aral\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile, Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi aras\u0131ndaki getiriyi g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48250\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI2.png\" width=\"580\" height=\"391\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI2.png 662w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/OCAK-AYI-GETIRI2-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere 21 y\u0131l\u0131n 20 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ocak ay\u0131nda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 endeks rakam\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczeri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Ortalamaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise %14.8 rakam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani Ocak ay\u0131nda endeks ortalama olarak Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %14 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor. Ama 1990&#8217;l\u0131 y\u0131llardaki y\u00fcksek getiriler nedeniyle bu b\u00f6yle. 2002&#8217;den bu yana ortalamay\u0131 al\u0131rsak, %9.1&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Fakat 2014&#8217;den bu yana Ocak ay\u0131nda endeks pek bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydedememi\u015f. \u015eu anki durumda \u00a0endeksin bu aydaki en y\u00fcksek seviyesi \u00a0Aral\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re %0.7 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bulunuyor. Son 4 y\u0131l\u0131 baz al\u0131rsak bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in hesab\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle yapabiliriz; Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 78.168 seviyesiydi. E\u011fer 2010&#8217;dan bu yana olan getirilerin bu y\u0131l da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek 78 bin seviyesine %7.9 eklememiz gerekir. \u00a0 Bu da yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 bin puan civar\u0131nda yap\u0131yor. Fakat, bu y\u0131l \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde 27 Ocak&#8217;ta \u00a0FITCH&#8217;in notu var. FITCH b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip edecektir. 20 Ocak&#8217;ta Trump koltu\u011funa oturup mesajlar ya\u011fd\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak. Bunlar piyasalar i\u00e7in stres yaratan unsurlar olacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle bu Ocak ay\u0131nda bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olacaksa bu iki hafta i\u00e7inde olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bahsetti\u011fim stres unsurlar\u0131 nedeniyle ben en fazla \u00a0%3-4&#8217;bir yukar\u0131 atak olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek 78 bin seviyesine g\u00f6re 2-3 bin puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini, bu t\u00fcr bir durum olursa endeksin 80-81 bin seviyesinin zirve olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn borsada sat\u0131\u015f vard\u0131 bug\u00fcn ise d\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fcn twitter&#8217;da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere 76.500&#8217;\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla, 75.000-75.500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar gerileme olabilir. 75 bin civar\u0131nda destek olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Bunun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olsa bile ay\u0131 tuza\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fabilir. Bu a\u015famadan sonra yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket \u00e7abas\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Ama 75 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r ve 2 g\u00fcn bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa endeksten Ocak rallisi bekleyemeyiz. D\u00fcnk\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 \u00f6nemliydi \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flem miktar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn 76.500 deste\u011finde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu seviyelerden olacak bir yukar\u0131 harekete kat\u0131lmamak gerekir. 77.350&#8217;Nin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlarsan\u0131z al\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir ama bu a\u015famada izlemede kalmak daha faydal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Kal\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131cakla&#8230; paran\u0131z sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bozmas\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda dolar\/TL kuruna ili\u015fkin olarak k\u00fcresel, yerel varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 vermi\u015f ve 2017 i\u00e7inde dolar\/TL kurunun olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00fczerine bir yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu yaz\u0131da da borsay\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,769,1497,752,753,1496],"class_list":["post-48229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48229\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}