{"id":48206,"date":"2017-01-03T11:55:16","date_gmt":"2017-01-03T08:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=48206"},"modified":"2017-01-03T11:58:20","modified_gmt":"2017-01-03T08:58:20","slug":"erol-gurcan-tcmb-yine-acik-mektup-yazacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-tcmb-yine-acik-mektup-yazacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; TCMB, Yine A\u00e7\u0131k Mektup Yazacak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k % 0.90 seviyesindeki piyasa beklentilerinden ve % 0.99 seviyesindeki bizim beklentimizden \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek ayl\u0131k bazda % 1.64 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/em> <\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1651854910\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00f6ylelikle 2016 y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme g\u00f6stererek % 8.53 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti (2015 Y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE: % 8.81). \u00a0Ayr\u0131ca, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak gecikmeli kur etkisi kaynakl\u0131 olarak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde bir s\u00fcredir g\u00f6zlenen olumlu seyrin de aral\u0131k ay\u0131 itibariyle bozuldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriyi gerek genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm gerek piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131na etkisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan negatif de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48207 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"177\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-1.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-1-300x88.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48208 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"370\" height=\"141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-2.png 370w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-2-300x114.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 370px) 100vw, 370px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki Rusya kaynakl\u0131 etkinin sona ermesi ve gecikmeli kur etkisi belirleyici oldu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Man\u015fet enflasyonda ayl\u0131k bazda g\u00f6zlenen sert y\u00fckseli\u015fte <strong>en \u00f6nemli katk\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> <strong>G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler (0.39 puan)<\/strong>, <strong>Konut (0.26 puan)<\/strong> ile <strong>Ula\u015ft\u0131rma (0.24 puan)<\/strong> gruplar\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. \u00a0Ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi tek harcama grubu ise <strong>Giyim ve Ayakkab\u0131<\/strong> olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da harcama gruplar\u0131 baz\u0131nda benzer \u015fekilde en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla <strong>G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler (2.02 puan)<\/strong>,<strong> Konut (1.36 puan)<\/strong> ile <strong>Ula\u015ft\u0131rma<\/strong>dan <strong>(1.22 puan)<\/strong> geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48209 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"605\" height=\"66\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-3.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-3-300x33.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, T\u00dcFE\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kas\u0131m 2015\u2019te Rusya ile ya\u015fanan krizin ard\u0131ndan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn enflasyona getirdi\u011fi olumlu etkinin \u00f6zellikle son aylarda ili\u015fkilerdeki normalle\u015fmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle ortadan kalkmas\u0131 ve olu\u015fan baz etkisi,<\/li>\n<li>Son d\u00f6nemlerde kur taraf\u0131nda artan tansiyonun gecikmeli etkileri,<\/li>\n<li>Yine son d\u00f6nemlerde yap\u0131lan vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olumlu katk\u0131n\u0131n terse d\u00f6nmesi<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48210 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-4.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-4-300x85.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>TCMB, yine \u201cA\u00e7\u0131k Mektup\u201d g\u00f6nderecek<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2016 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonu T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB)&#8217;n\u0131n 2016 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131 metninde belirlenen % 5 seviyesindeki hedeften ve +\/- 2 puan sapma pay\u0131 olan belirsizlik aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu da Merkez Bankas\u0131 Kanunu&#8217;nun 42. maddesi kapsam\u0131nda, enflasyonun hedeften belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle TCMB&#8217;nin h\u00fck\u00fcmete sapman\u0131n nedenlerini ve hedefe ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken \u00f6nlemleri i\u00e7eren bir a\u00e7\u0131k mektup g\u00f6ndermesi gerekecek. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren y\u0131lsonu enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k hedeflerinden 2 puandan fazla sapma g\u00f6stermekte.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1885556857\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48211 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-5.png 480w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00dcFE-5-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>TCMB\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme ihtimali kuvvetlendi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin beklentilerden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde negatif anlamda sapma g\u00f6stermesine ek olarak genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumsuz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde iktisadi faaliyette g\u00f6zlenen yava\u015flama talebin de genel olarak zay\u0131f seyretmesine yol a\u00e7makta, bu da kur taraf\u0131nda artan tansiyona kar\u015f\u0131n genel fiyat d\u00fczeyi \u00fczerinde radikal bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6zlenmemesine neden olmaktayd\u0131. Nitekim, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 anlam\u0131nda pas ge\u00e7ti\u011fi Aral\u0131k 2016 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bu konuya at\u0131fta bulunarak \u00a0karar metninde;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel belirsizliklerdeki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ya\u015fanan <strong>d\u00f6viz kuru hareketleri <\/strong>ve <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f<\/strong> enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair <strong>yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk <\/strong>olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan, <strong>toplam talep geli\u015fmeleri<\/strong> bu <strong>etkileri s\u0131n\u0131rlamakta<\/strong>d\u0131r. Kurul, bu fakt\u00f6rlerin <strong>net etkilerinin daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilmesi <\/strong>a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, geli\u015fmelerin yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesinin faydal\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etmi\u015ftir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ifadesini yer vermi\u015fti. A\u00e7\u0131klanan son veriler net etki a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde koydu\u011fundan TCMB\u2019nin Ocak PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin kuvvetlendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veri sonras\u0131nda dolar\/TL taraf\u0131nda bir s\u00fcredir kritik diren\u00e7 olarak 3.55 TL seviyesinin \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Kur taraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seyrin bu ayki toplant\u0131ya kadar devam etmesi de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek di\u011fer \u00f6nemli bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. TCMB\u2019nin bu y\u0131l itibariyle toplant\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 8\u2019e indirilmesine y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 toplant\u0131 takvimi halen netlik kazanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bu durumun genel olarak olumsuz bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kanaatimizi yinelemekte fayda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. TCMB, Ocak 2017 PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131n 24\u2019\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na ait ilk T\u00dcFE verilerini 3 \u015eubat 2017 tarihinde g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2652968866\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k % 0.90 seviyesindeki piyasa beklentilerinden ve % 0.99 seviyesindeki bizim beklentimizden \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek ayl\u0131k&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[314,1555,1513,1563,1564,296],"class_list":["post-48206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-enflasyon-oranlari","tag-enflasyon-rakamlari","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari","tag-tufe-oranlari","tag-tufe-rakamlari","tag-tuketici-fiyatlari-endeksi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48206\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}