{"id":48154,"date":"2016-12-30T11:48:38","date_gmt":"2016-12-30T08:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=48154"},"modified":"2016-12-30T11:50:52","modified_gmt":"2016-12-30T08:50:52","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-2017-fali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-2017-fali\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211;\u00a02017 Fal\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Fala inanmam ama 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda neler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak fal benzeri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bulunman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini vurgulamak i\u00e7in bu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kulland\u0131m.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3606391706\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Her y\u0131l yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m gibi 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de say\u0131sal tahmin yapt\u0131m ama iki nedenle bu tahminlerimi a\u00e7\u0131klamayaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Birinci neden:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler ile ilgili bilimsel tahminde bulunabilmek i\u00e7in iki a\u015famal\u0131 bir i\u015flem yapmak gerekiyor: Gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 ortaya koymak ve bu varsay\u0131mlar alt\u0131nda mevcut verileri bir model \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde kullanarak tahminleri yapmak. Tahminlerin dayanaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 ortaya koymakta yani ilk a\u015famada bir sorun yok. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015f\u00f6yle varsay\u0131mlar yap\u0131labilir: Fed 3 kez faiz art\u0131racak, Avrupa\u2019da toparlanma olmayacak ve mevcut ekonomik durum devam edecek, \u00c7in, eski b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesine geri d\u00f6nemeyecek, geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomilerde finansman sorunlar\u0131 ya\u015fanacak. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ikinci a\u015famada yani bu varsay\u0131mlara dayanarak ele al\u0131nacak veriler konusunda sorunlar var. T\u00dc\u0130K, Avrupa Birli\u011fi hesaplar sistemiyle uyum sa\u011flamak \u00fczere ESA 2010 d\u00fczenlemeleri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde GSYH hesaplama sistemini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin \u00e7e\u015fitli etkileri ve sorunlar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Eski ve yeni GSYH serileri aras\u0131nda genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc fazlaca etkilemeyen buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ayr\u0131nt\u0131larda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc etkileyen baz\u0131 yer de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin baz\u0131 kalemler t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131 olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Bunun sonucunda eski seri GSYH\u2019de mesela nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n toplam harcamalar i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 70 dolay\u0131ndayken yeni seri GSYH\u2019da bu oran y\u00fczde 60 d\u00fczeyine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunun sonucunda t\u00fcketim oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken yat\u0131r\u0131m ve tasarruf oranlar\u0131 onar puan y\u00fckselmi\u015f oldu. Bu durum olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor bana. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada yeni hesaplamaya g\u00f6re bulunan GSYH\u2019da eski hesaplamaya g\u00f6re ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan 384 milyar TL fark\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc in\u015faat kesimindeki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu tutar GSYH\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019sine denk geliyor. Bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tutar\u0131n hesaplar\u0131n nas\u0131l d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tam olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanam\u0131yor ve ister istemez bir \u015fehir efsanesi olarak ortada dola\u015fan ve GSYH\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20\u2019si dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131 esas al\u0131narak hesaplara ekleme yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinin do\u011fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni seride nominal de\u011ferlerde ge\u00e7mi\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fck d\u00fczeltmelerin reel de\u011ferleri nas\u0131l olup da y\u00fczde 25 \u2013 50 oran\u0131nda etkiledi\u011fi yan\u0131tlanmas\u0131 gereken en \u00f6nemli sorulardan birisi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda duruyor. T\u00dc\u0130K, GSYH serisini ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yeni sistemle ge\u00e7mi\u015fe do\u011fru revize etmekle birlikte 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini eski seriye g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ortada bir veri kopuklu\u011fu var. Bu t\u00fcr bir seri de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir s\u00fcre eski seriyle de tahmin a\u00e7\u0131klamaya devam edilmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2016\/12\/2017-fal.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>. (Mahfiegilmez.Com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fala inanmam ama 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda neler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak fal benzeri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bulunman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini vurgulamak i\u00e7in bu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kulland\u0131m. Her y\u0131l&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-48154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48154"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48154\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}