{"id":481,"date":"2011-05-30T09:18:46","date_gmt":"2011-05-30T07:18:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=481"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:41:46","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:41:46","slug":"yumusak-inis-ihtimali-var-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yumusak-inis-ihtimali-var-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yumu\u015fak ini\u015f ihtimali var m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini korur iken, euro b\u00f6lgesi ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n iyice olumsuzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7 yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeler euro b\u00f6lgesini sarsmaya devam etti, Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Kurulu sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye riskine d\u00fc\u015fk\u00fcn olumsuz alg\u0131lamalar finansal piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 etkisi alt\u0131na ald\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 di\u011fer paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti, sermaye piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda bunald\u0131, genel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlendi. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131lamalar\u0131ndaki olumsuz de\u011fi\u015fimin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7ta daha belirleyici oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-795711854\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerine dokunmadan para politikas\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen kredi hacmindeki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin gaz kesmeden eski e\u011filimine devam etmesi alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n bozulmas\u0131nda etkili oldu, yumu\u015fak ini\u015f ihtimali azald\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri tarihi dip seviyelerde tutuyor olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar s\u00f6z konusu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 50 kadar daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k kesiminde buluyor olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye risklerini azaltmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 olumlu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye izin vermiyor. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle Merkez Bankas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri y\u00fckseltmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olsa bile T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeyecek, de\u011fer kaybedecekti, sonu\u00e7ta para ilgisi terse \u00e7evrilemeyecekti&#8230; Bu tablo hem fiyat hem de finansal istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi engelliyor, d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyona ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n hareket yetene\u011fi daral\u0131yor, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n e\u011filimler \u00fczerindeki etkinli\u011finin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Durum b\u00f6yle olunca son para kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neden pasif bir tav\u0131r benimsendi\u011fini anlamak tabii zor olmuyor!..<\/p>\n<p>Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin mevduatlara \u00f6dedi\u011fi faizler dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 zorunlu \u015fekilde artt\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen kredi talebini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131lamaya devam etmesi ve k\u0131sa vadeli finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 faiz marj\u0131ndaki olumsuzla\u015fmaya g\u00f6rmezden gelerek artt\u0131rmas\u0131 tuhaf bir \u00e7eli\u015fki olu\u015fturuyor hi\u00e7 bir \u015feyin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaati g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Mevduatlara \u00f6denen faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi vadelerin azalt\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131klamak pek ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor, e\u011fer durum b\u00f6yle olsa idi k\u0131sa vadeli mevduatlara verilen faizler y\u00fckseltilmez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcr idi&#8230; Mevduat faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n bir sonucudur ve T\u00fcrkiye riskindeki tehlikeli t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermektedir; bu durumda k\u0131sa vadeli finansman ihtiyac\u0131ndaki tehlikeli t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 azaltmak ad\u0131na kredi hacmindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zla durmas\u0131 gerekir iken tam aksine s\u00f6z konusu olmas\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131nda olabilir. Aksini iddia eden yorum ve de\u011ferlendirmelerin masal olmaktan \u00f6teye gidebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek ise ya \u00e7ok safl\u0131k yada \u00e7aresizlik anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Mali sistemin ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve direncinin azalmakta oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7eklerini de\u011fi\u015ftiremez&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Mali sistemin cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u0131sa vadeli finansman ihtiyac\u0131ndaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalmas\u0131 ve belirsizli\u011fe meydan olunmas\u0131, normal bir durum say\u0131lamaz. Ancak mevcut stratejinin kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, risklerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mali sekt\u00f6rde, konsolide olmu\u015f olmas\u0131 ve pozisyonlar\u0131n y\u00f6netilebilir olmaktan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 durumunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir, ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczmek ve sorunlar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rmak pahas\u0131na pozisyonlar\u0131 koruma \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n bir sonucu olabilir. \u00d6zetle s\u00f6ylemek gerekir ise risk y\u00f6netimi iyice hantalla\u015fm\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar nedeniyle yap\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalar manip\u00fcle edilir! Belirsizlik ile k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelinir, d\u00fczenleyici kurumlardan gelen uyar\u0131 ve \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lara kay\u0131ts\u0131z kal\u0131n\u0131r, onlar\u0131n kendilerine uymas\u0131 beklenir ve bunun alternatifsiz oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr!.. Kredi portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki korumak ad\u0131na art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6n verilmez d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyonda ya\u015fanacak y\u00fckseli\u015fi bunlar\u0131n varl\u0131k de\u011ferleri \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisini geciktirmek \u00fczere mevduatlara gereken oranda y\u00fcksek faiz verilir; kendileri gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyenler g\u00f6rmezden gelinir!.. Siyasi iradenin, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n BDDK&#8217;nin bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sonland\u0131rmak \u00fczere ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve alaca\u011f\u0131 kararlara duyars\u0131z kal\u0131n\u0131r&#8230;. Finanse edebildi\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorun yaratmaz s\u00f6ylemi dile getirilmesi bile saadet zinciri k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ncaya kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrelebilir olmayan rotada \u0131srar edilir!..<\/p>\n<p>Ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri mali sekt\u00f6r ve ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tepkiler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde inceledi\u011fimizde yumu\u015fak ini\u015fin s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; gitti\u011fi yere kadar b\u00f6yle gidecek ve inceldi\u011fi yerden kopacak!.. Son para kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan kararlara bak\u0131l\u0131r ise Merkez Bankas\u0131 sonunda bu durumu anlam\u0131\u015f ve pasif kalm\u0131\u015f olabilir; siyasi irade ve BDDK&#8217;n\u0131nda \u00e7aresiz bir \u015fekilde anlay\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Fakat yabanc\u0131 sermayenin mali sekt\u00f6rden ba\u015flayarak T\u00fcrkiye riskini azaltmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; olumsuzluklar\u0131n bir k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fc i\u00e7inde kendi kendini beslemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Finansal piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n k\u00fcresel e\u011filimlerden ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00fcrpriz saymamak gerekiyor&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini korur iken, euro b\u00f6lgesi ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n iyice olumsuzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7 yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131na&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}