{"id":48085,"date":"2016-12-21T19:33:37","date_gmt":"2016-12-21T16:33:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=48085"},"modified":"2016-12-23T16:19:27","modified_gmt":"2016-12-23T13:19:27","slug":"cetin-unsalan-112-milyarlik-takip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-112-milyarlik-takip\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; 112 milyarl\u0131k takip"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>2017 y\u0131l\u0131na ait b\u00fct\u00e7e tasar\u0131s\u0131 TBMM\u2019de onayland\u0131. \u015eimdi b\u00fct\u00e7enin detaylar\u0131na girip, sizleri rakamlar aras\u0131nda bo\u011fmayaca\u011f\u0131m. Basit bir, d\u00fcz bakkal hesab\u0131 \u00fczerinden, cevaba muhta\u00e7 birka\u00e7 soruyu payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3312651033\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Gelecek y\u0131la ait ve 312 milletvekilinin kabul oylar\u0131yla ge\u00e7en b\u00fct\u00e7eye g\u00f6re: Giderlerimiz 645 milyar TL, gelirlerimiz de 598 milyar TL. Faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla gibi ciddiyetsiz ve ger\u00e7ek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 buldu\u011fum bir kavram\u0131 kenara koyarsak, b\u00fct\u00e7e yakla\u015f\u0131k 47 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verecek.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00e7ede gelirlerin 511 milyar TL\u2019sini de vergi gelirleri olu\u015fturuyor. Tam da konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yer buras\u0131. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan af ya da yap\u0131land\u0131rmayla tahakkuk ettirilen rakam, 77,6 milyar TL vergi ve 34,3 milyar TL sigorta olmak \u00fczere 111,9 milyar TL.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim sorulara: Tahakkuk etti\u011fine g\u00f6re gelir kaleminin i\u00e7inde bu da olmal\u0131. Fakat bug\u00fcne kadarki yap\u0131land\u0131rmalarda tahsil\u00e2t, yani ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin y\u00fczde 10 ortalama ile hayat buldu\u011funu ve bunun da piyasan\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda farkl\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesap edersek 100 milyar TL\u2019lik bir rakam a\u00e7\u0131k halde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n<p>Gelir olarak g\u00f6sterilen ama tahsil edilemezse yeni bir affa kadar k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde kalmaktan ba\u015fka \u015fans\u0131 kalmayan bu 100 milyar TL kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nereden bulunacak? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bulunamazsa b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 reelde 147 milyar TL olur.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcne kadar tahakkuku gelir yaz\u0131p, aflar\u0131 gelirden d\u00fc\u015fmediler. \u0130\u015fsizden istenen sigorta priminde de, vergi ve SGK priminde de manzara bu. Ekonomiyi finanse etme planlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7inde bu a\u00e7\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00e7e hedeftir; sapma olabilir. En az\u0131ndan b\u00f6yle a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Ama gelirde yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019lik bir fark, art\u0131k sapma olarak nitelendirilemez. Giderlerin de beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu ve ayr\u0131lan b\u00fct\u00e7elerin a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hesaba katarsan\u0131z, fazlaca a\u00e7\u0131lan bir makas s\u00f6z konusu. Art\u0131k bunu gizleyecek bir kredi ya da s\u0131cak para mekanizmas\u0131 da yok.<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda benzer durumlar ya\u015fand\u0131. TBMM\u2019de bu soruldu\u011funda, gelecek paran\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerine dahil edilmedi\u011fi s\u00f6ylendi. Yine s\u00f6ylenebilir mi; evet. Ama bu sefer de b\u00fct\u00e7eye ekstradan girece\u011fi varsay\u0131lan 112 milyar TL\u2019nin, ge\u00e7tim y\u00fczde 10 tahsil\u00e2t olsa, 11 milyar TL\u2019nin nereye harcanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n izah edilmesi gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3870579990\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonomi kurmaylar\u0131n\u0131n veya Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n bu konuyla ilgili bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Yapmasa da b\u00fct\u00e7eye onay veren 312, ret oyu veren 103 milletvekilinin bu 112 milyar TL\u2019nin pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve kamuoyuna da bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fart.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi rakamlar milyar denilince ufak zannediliyor. Eski parayla 112 katrilyondan, dolar cinsinden bak\u0131nca da, kuru 3,50 kabul etseniz 32 milyar dolardan s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Yani neredeyse cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 kadar ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan bir paradan.<\/p>\n<p>Bunu ciddiye almayacak kadar zenginsek, bilemiyorum. Herkes ayba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l getirdi\u011finden ya da getiremedi\u011finden sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 yaps\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2001096178\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2017 y\u0131l\u0131na ait b\u00fct\u00e7e tasar\u0131s\u0131 TBMM\u2019de onayland\u0131. \u015eimdi b\u00fct\u00e7enin detaylar\u0131na girip, sizleri rakamlar aras\u0131nda bo\u011fmayaca\u011f\u0131m. Basit bir, d\u00fcz bakkal hesab\u0131 \u00fczerinden, cevaba muhta\u00e7 birka\u00e7 soruyu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-48085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48085\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}