{"id":4770,"date":"2011-09-08T09:02:15","date_gmt":"2011-09-08T06:02:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4770"},"modified":"2011-09-08T09:02:33","modified_gmt":"2011-09-08T06:02:33","slug":"tl%e2%80%99nin-degeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tl%e2%80%99nin-degeri\/","title":{"rendered":"TL\u2019nin De\u011feri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Neyse, d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 d\u00fcn sakinledi. \u00dc\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste de\u011fer kaybetmeleri korkutmu\u015ftu. D\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f biraz nefes ald\u0131rd\u0131. K\u00e2bus bitti mi? Yoksa ge\u00e7ici\u00a0<span><strong>bir<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0toparlanma m\u0131? Rivayetler muhtelif&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-93820992\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><span><strong>Son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0olaylar euro\u2019nun gelece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 iyice alevlendirdi. Tek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc euro b\u00f6lgesinin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131nda g\u00f6renler art\u0131yor. Niyetim bug\u00fcn ona bakmakt\u0131. Ama benim a\u00e7\u0131mdan daha acil bir konu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSak\u0131nan g\u00f6ze \u00e7\u00f6p batar\u201d. Gazeteye yollamadan yaz\u0131m\u0131 mutlaka kontrol ederim. K\u0131saltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131m. Ona ra\u011fmen hata oluyor. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 gazetede okurken g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Di\u011ferlerinde okuyucular\u0131m uyar\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle bunlar \u00fcz\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kan yaz\u0131da ikisi de oldu. Biri \u201ca\u011fustosta kiralar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u201d ifadesidir. Yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Do\u011frusu \u201ckira enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u201d \u015feklindedir. \u00d6nce \u00f6yle yazd\u0131m. K\u0131saltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken anlam\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fimi atlam\u0131\u015f\u0131m. \u00d6z\u00fcr dilerim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u0131n\u0131fta \u00f6\u011fretirim ama<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Di\u011feri daha ciddi \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sabah okurken de fark\u0131na varmad\u0131m. Ata Portf\u00f6y Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nden Mehmet Gerz dikkatimi \u00e7ekti. Fakat onu da kavramad\u0131m. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 anlatmas\u0131 gerekti. \u00c7ok utand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6ylemeliyim.<\/p>\n<p>Konu TL\u2019nin de\u011feridir. Daha do\u011frusu de\u011fi\u015fimin hesaplanmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u015e\u00f6yle yazm\u0131\u015f\u0131m: \u201cOrtalama sepet kur bir y\u0131lda 1.73 TL\u2019den 2.13 TL\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131. Yani TL y\u00fczde 23,5 de\u011fer kaybetti.\u201d Son c\u00fcmle yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Hesab\u0131 a\u00e7al\u0131m. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kur bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesi ile b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bir y\u0131lda sepetin TL kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 23,5 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi hesaplan\u0131yor. Yani \u201csepet kur y\u00fczde 23,5 artt\u0131\u201d ifadesi do\u011frudur. Ama ben \u00f6yle demedim. TL\u2019nin o kadar de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fini s\u00f6yledim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3513280801\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>TL\u2019nin de\u011feri i\u00e7in pay\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0payda yer de\u011fi\u015ftirir. Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki kur bug\u00fcne b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcr. Bu hesapla TL\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 19 \u00e7\u0131kar. Basit bir \u00f6rnek verelim. Dolar 1 TL\u2019den 2 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca y\u00fczde 100 artar ama TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 50 olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, bu hesab\u0131 ve gerek\u00e7elerini mutlaka \u00f6\u011frencilerime anlat\u0131r\u0131m. TL\u2019nin de\u011ferinin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sat\u0131n al\u0131nan d\u00f6viz miktar\u0131 ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgular\u0131m. S\u0131n\u0131fta \u00f6rnek \u00e7\u00f6zerim. Ayn\u0131 hatay\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olmak can\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tart\u0131l\u0131 efektif reel kur<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da TL\u2019nin nominal de\u011ferindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi hesapland\u0131. \u00d6te yandan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu da biliniyor. Enflasyon etkisi temizlenince reel d\u00f6viz kuruna ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2199193511\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 her ay \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE\u2019ye g\u00f6re Tart\u0131l\u0131 Efektif Reel Kur TERK endekslerini yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. Orta vadede ikisi \u00e7ok benze\u015fti\u011finden ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131yorum. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00dcFE\u2019de geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen ekonomilerin ayr\u0131 endeksleri de var.<\/p>\n<p>TL\u2019nin reel de\u011ferinin 2003\u2019ten bu yana seyri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiktedir. TL \u00fc\u00e7 kez de\u011fer kaybediyor ve toparlan\u0131yor: 2006 yaz\u0131, 2007 sonu ve 2009 ba\u015f\u0131. En sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Ekim 2010 sonras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. A\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k reel de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 17,8\u2018dir. D\u00f6viz sepetine k\u0131yasla nominal de\u011fer kayb\u0131na \u00e7ok yak\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neyse, d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 d\u00fcn sakinledi. \u00dc\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste de\u011fer kaybetmeleri korkutmu\u015ftu. D\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f biraz nefes ald\u0131rd\u0131. K\u00e2bus bitti mi? Yoksa ge\u00e7ici\u00a0bir\u00a0toparlanma m\u0131? Rivayetler muhtelif&#8230;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}