{"id":47534,"date":"2016-11-13T22:38:36","date_gmt":"2016-11-13T19:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=47534"},"modified":"2016-11-13T22:38:36","modified_gmt":"2016-11-13T19:38:36","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-finansal-piyasalarda-durum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-finansal-piyasalarda-durum\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211;\u00a0Finansal Piyasalarda Durum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, bir ekonomik modeli, bir tahmin setini olu\u015fturduktan sonra bu modele baz\u0131 \u015foklar uygulayarak modelin veya tahmin setinin bunlardan nas\u0131l etkilendi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek isterler.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3324122094\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lk tahminlerde Dolar TL kurunu X olarak tahmin edip modele koyarak di\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin nas\u0131l olu\u015ftu\u011funa bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Sonraki a\u015famalarda Dolar TL kurunun \u00e7e\u015fitli \u015foklarla X+ bir de\u011fer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda modelin di\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fkenlerinin nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu dedi\u011fim uygulama yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur. Tahmin \u00f6ncesi o tahminlerin dayanaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar olu\u015fturulurken bu t\u00fcr \u015foklar da dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>2016 y\u0131l\u0131 gerek yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda gerekse yurt i\u00e7inde b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015foklara sahne oldu. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda \u015fok olarak tahminlere genellikle Fed\u2019in \u00e7ok say\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131, Rusya ile ekonomik krizin devam edece\u011fi gibi \u015feyler kat\u0131l\u0131yordu. \u00c7o\u011fu tahminci Brexit\u2019i, Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ilece\u011fi gibi konular\u0131 tahminlerine birer \u015fok unsuru olarak bile koymad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Elimizdeki veriler piyasalarda \u00f6zellikle CDS primlerine bakarak risk art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131, T\u00dcFE verilerine bakarak enflasyondaki geli\u015fmeleri, TCMB\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama faizlere bakarak TCMB\u2019nin nas\u0131l bir etki yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve nihayet g\u00f6sterge faiz oranlar\u0131na bakarak piyasada bu etkiler sonucunda faizin nas\u0131l olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6rmemize olanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2016\/11\/finansal-piyasalarda-durum.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>. (Mahfiegilmez.Com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, bir ekonomik modeli, bir tahmin setini olu\u015fturduktan sonra bu modele baz\u0131 \u015foklar uygulayarak modelin veya tahmin setinin bunlardan nas\u0131l etkilendi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek isterler. \u0130lk tahminlerde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-47534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}