{"id":47264,"date":"2016-10-20T15:54:40","date_gmt":"2016-10-20T12:54:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=47264"},"modified":"2016-10-20T15:54:40","modified_gmt":"2016-10-20T12:54:40","slug":"erol-gurcan-tcmb-faiz-karari-ekim-2016-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-tcmb-faiz-karari-ekim-2016-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; TCMB Faiz Karar\u0131 Ekim 2016 De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), bizim beklentimizle uyumlu olarak Ekim ay\u0131nda faizlerde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmad\u0131. Piyasadaki genel beklenti faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 25 bp indirim yap\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan karar\u0131n TL ile enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri ve enflasyon beklentilerinin seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3659727433\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-47266 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-1.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-20-10-2016-tcmb-1\" width=\"520\" height=\"162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-1.png 520w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-1-300x93.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>TCMB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bu sabah yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z beklenti notunda son d\u00f6nemlerde \u00f6zellikle dolar\/TL taraf\u0131nda tarihi zirvelerin test ediliyor olmas\u0131 nedeniyle TCMB\u2019nin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da faiz indirimine gitmesi konusunda elinin bir miktar zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da bu toplant\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi anlam\u0131nda pas ge\u00e7ilme ihtimalinin kuvvetlendi\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizi ifade etmi\u015ftik.\u00a0 Bu anlamda bug\u00fcn al\u0131nan karar\u0131n ekonomi ve finansal piyasalardaki istikrar\u0131 destekleme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Kararla birlikte yay\u0131nlanan metinde g\u00f6zlenen de\u011fi\u015fikliklere ili\u015fkin detaylar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ele alaca\u011f\u0131z. Ancak, bu metinde verilen temel olarak; \u00f6nceki ay oldu\u011fu gibi y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00c7eyre\u011finde iktisadi faaliyette g\u00f6zlenen yava\u015flamaya dikkat \u00e7ekilirken; toplam talepteki yava\u015flaman\u0131n enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekledi\u011fi ancak kur taraf\u0131ndaki seyrin bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Ayr\u0131ca, para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecindeki bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ve zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n verilere g\u00f6re \u015fekillenece\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131. Kararla birlikte yay\u0131nlanan \u00f6zet metinde bir \u00f6nceki metne g\u00f6re \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ve vurgular a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da verilmi\u015ftir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ko\u015fullardaki \u201cS\u0131k\u0131\u201dl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgusu<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cMevcut durumda<strong> genel finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilmektedir\u201d<\/strong> ifadesi metinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken;<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cParasal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131<\/strong> ve makro ihtiyati alandaki d\u00fczenlemeler genel finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 desteklemektedir.\u201d ifadesi metne eklendi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yaz d\u00f6nemi cari denge verilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131nda \u201cTurizm\u201d vurgusu 2. planda<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u201cTurizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki geli\u015fmelerin cari denge \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olumsuz bir etki yapmas\u0131 <\/strong>beklenmekle beraber,\u201d ifadesi metinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken; \u201cd\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerindeki geli\u015fmelerin gecikmeli yans\u0131malar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici kredilerinin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyri<strong> cari dengedeki iyile\u015fmeyi desteklemektedir. \u201c<\/strong>ifadesi yerine;<\/li>\n<li>\u201cD\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerindeki geli\u015fmelerin gecikmeli yans\u0131malar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici kredilerinin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyri cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki<strong> turizm kaynakl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r\u201d<\/strong> ifadesi tercih edildi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kurdaki geli\u015fmelerin enflasyon \u00fczerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 etkisi \u00f6n pl\u00e2nda<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cToplam talepteki yava\u015flama \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklerken g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki<strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrin de etkisiyle k\u0131sa vadede enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/strong> Bununla birlikte, <strong>akaryak\u0131t \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki vergi ayarlamas\u0131 <\/strong>ve di\u011fer maliyet unsurlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler enflasyondaki iyile\u015fmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamakta ve para politikas\u0131ndaki temkinli duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirmektedir.\u00a0\u201c ifadesi yerine,<\/li>\n<li>\u201cToplam talepteki yava\u015flama \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklemektedir. Bununla birlikte, <strong>d\u00f6viz kuru<\/strong> ve di\u011fer maliyet unsurlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki iyile\u015fmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamakta ve para politikas\u0131ndaki temkinli duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirmektedir.\u201d ifadesi tercih edilebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcreci kapsam\u0131nda 9 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste yap\u0131lan faiz indirimlerinin ard\u0131ndan, faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cKurul, para politikas\u0131nda <strong>sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecindeki bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ve zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n verilere g\u00f6re \u015fekillenece\u011fini<\/strong> belirtmi\u015ftir.\u201d \u0130fadesi metne eklendi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><u>TCMB Sadele\u015fme Zamanlamas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Son \u00c7eyrek \u00d6nemli Tarihler <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>(Kalan PPK toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n FOMC Sonras\u0131na Gelmesi de TCMB A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Avantaj)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>EK\u0130M <\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-906421254\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>27 Ekim Y\u0131l\u0131n Son Enflasyon Raporu<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>KASIM<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>1 \u2013 2 Kas\u0131m FOMC<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>8 Kas\u0131m ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri<\/li>\n<li><strong>24 Kas\u0131m PPK<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>30 Kas\u0131m Finansal \u0130stikrar Raporu<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ARALIK<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>6 Aral\u0131k 2017 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131 Metni<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>13 \u2013 14 Aral\u0131k FOMC<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>20 Aral\u0131k PPK<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Son durum itibariyle TCMB\u2019nin 1 hafta vadeli repo faizi % 7.50, gecelik bor\u00e7 alma faizi % 7.25 ve gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi % 8.25 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n<p>Sadele\u015fmenin sonlanmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin net mesajlar\u0131n ve bundan sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin genel beklentilerin \u015fekillendirilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 27 Ekim tarihinde yay\u0131nlanacak olan y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporu, 30 Kas\u0131m Finansal \u0130stikrar Raporu ve\/veya 6 Aral\u0131k tarihinde yay\u0131nlanacak olan 2017 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131 metninin \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu raporlar bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131yla tan\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan TCMB\u2019nin bunlar\u0131 piyasa ile do\u011fru ileti\u015fim kurulmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1377009845\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>TCMB, Mart \u2013 Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemi PPK toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tamam\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimleri sonras\u0131nda, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda % 9\u2019lu seviyelerde olan A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Ortalama Fonlama Faizinin (AOFF),\u00a0 Ekim ay\u0131 boyunca ortalama % 7.75 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Faizler sabit b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mevcut fonlama kompozisyonunda radikal bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde AOFF\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131ya kadar mevcut seviyelere yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenebilir. Ancak, 1 hafta vadeli repo ihalesi ve\/veya gecelik bor\u00e7 verme yoluyla sa\u011flanan fonlama miktar\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na g\u00f6re AOFF\u2019de yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ayarlamalar g\u00f6rmemiz de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentilerinin ve mevcut y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n da % 7.5 \u2013 8 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin nihai hedefine yakla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Sadele\u015fmenin nihai olarak politika faizi % 7.50, faiz koridorunun % 7.25 &#8211; % 7.75 olacak \u015fekilde tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00fcst bantta toplam 50 bp indirim alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bunun da 25\u2019er bp olarak 2 PPK\u2019da yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fta Fed kaynakl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullarda \u00f6nemli bir bozulma g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi takdirde, A\u011fustos 2015\u2019ten bu yanda devam eden para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde sona yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar sadele\u015fmenin tamamlanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 27 Ekim tarihinde yay\u0131nlanacak olan y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporuyla ve\/veya 6 Aral\u0131k tarihinde yay\u0131nlanacak olan 2017 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131 metniyle bu konuya ili\u015fkin net i\u015faretlerin verilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin nihai hedefi olan geleneksel tek faiz yap\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmesiyle aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n daha etkin hale gelece\u011fini; b\u00f6ylelikle TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan faiz indirimlerinin de piyasa ve kredi faizlerine etkisinin de daha hissedilir h\u00e2le gelmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>TCMB\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131 24 Kas\u0131m 2016 tarihinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek. Bu toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fcksek ihtimalle y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporunun bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131yla tan\u0131t\u0131lacak olmas\u0131, ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri ile Fed Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n geride kalacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bir sonraki toplant\u0131 tarihinin de TCMB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fta enflasyon ve kur geli\u015fmeleri olmak \u00fczere \u00f6nemli negatif bir tabloyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde gelecek toplant\u0131da \u00fcst bantta 25 bp indirime gidilmesi beklenebilir. Ancak, Kas\u0131m PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 27 Ekim\u2019teki y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporunun tan\u0131t\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verilecek mesajlarla birlikte olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-47267 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-2.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-20-10-2016-tcmb-2\" width=\"606\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-2.png 606w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-20.10.2016-TCMB-2-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), bizim beklentimizle uyumlu olarak Ekim ay\u0131nda faizlerde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmad\u0131. Piyasadaki genel beklenti faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 25 bp&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47264\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}