{"id":47155,"date":"2016-10-10T22:08:43","date_gmt":"2016-10-10T19:08:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=47155"},"modified":"2016-10-10T22:08:43","modified_gmt":"2016-10-10T19:08:43","slug":"cetin-unsalan-petrol-60-dolar-olursa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-petrol-60-dolar-olursa\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Petrol 60 dolar olursa&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimde k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gidece\u011fi s\u00f6ylentisi ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da buna s\u0131cak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bir anda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Uzun s\u00fcredir 49 \u2013 50 dolar band\u0131nda gezen Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 10 Ekim ak\u015fam\u0131 itibariyle 53 dolar seviyesinde seyretti.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1003456391\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu seviyenin de son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu a\u015fik\u00e2r. Finans raporlar\u0131na ve baz\u0131 petrol \u00fcretici \u00fclkelerin yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa hedef 60 dolar seviyesini g\u00f6rmek. Bu bir tiyatro mudur; beklenti y\u00f6netimi midir ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretim i\u00e7erisindeki en dominant \u00fclke olan Suudi Arabistan i\u015fi eyleme d\u00f6kmezse, kad\u00fck olmu\u015f bir konsens\u00fcs olarak ortada kal\u0131r. Fakat \u2018petrol 60 dolar olursa, ne olur\u2019 sorusunun yan\u0131t\u0131na kafa yormak bence daha \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n<p>Farz edelim ki 60 dolar\u0131 buldu. Bu d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki daralman\u0131n ilac\u0131 olabilir mi? \u00d6ncelikle kontrol edilemez bir oranda y\u00fcksek arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n, daralan d\u00fcnya hacminin \u00e7ok daha \u00f6tesinde bir sorun te\u015fkil etti\u011fini bilmek gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Yani petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 oldu\u011fundan daha \u00f6nemli olan, d\u00fcnyada bir talep patlamas\u0131n\u0131n olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse \u00fcretimde t\u00fcketilemeyen petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bir \u00f6nemi yok.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin finans cephesine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, ellerinde k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t s\u0131k\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n bu f\u0131rsattan risk azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da biliyoruz. Ama bu iyimserlik pompalamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen risk satacak kimse bulabilecekler mi; d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u0131rtla\u011f\u0131na kadar k\u00e2\u011f\u0131da bo\u011fuldu\u011fu bu ortamda \u015f\u00fcpheliyim.<\/p>\n<p>Reel sekt\u00f6r boyutunda ise sorun b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek devam ediyor. Mesele petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Rusya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bunlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli m\u00fc\u015fterilerimiz oldu\u011funu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, bu seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kacak bir de\u011fer, ticareti toparlar m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Ne yaz\u0131k ki bunun yan\u0131t\u0131 hay\u0131r. 120 dolarlar seviyesinden 40-50 dolara inen varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ve kaybedilen al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahribat b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00dcstelik bu zaten daralmaya giden bir d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin piminin erken \u00e7ekilmesine de sebep oldu. Bu nedenle ihracat bak\u0131m\u0131ndan halen muhataplar\u0131m\u0131z yani m\u00fc\u015fterilerimiz yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya gelir kayb\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3388225491\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir de bunun \u00fczerine \u00fc\u00e7te iki oran\u0131nda azalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, maliyetlere vergiler nedeniyle yans\u0131mayan enerji giderlerinin y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fczeyinde artaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fini eklerseniz, bu reel sekt\u00f6r ad\u0131na hi\u00e7 ho\u015f bir haber olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Enerji Kongresi\u2019nde herkes bol keseden att\u0131 ama D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi\u2019nin yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Raporu\u2019ndaki tespitin \u00fczerinde durulmad\u0131. Rapora g\u00f6re ki ihtimaller i\u00e7inde en muhtemel olan\u0131, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na enerji talebinin azalaca\u011f\u0131 vurgusu&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bu d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik daralman\u0131n, ticaret hacmindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ve arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n taleple dengelenecek noktaya gelmesinin tahmin edildi\u011finden uzun bir s\u00fcre olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zaman dilimi i\u00e7inde de kapanan firmalar ger\u00e7e\u011fini ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l kelam petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, belirleyici olan d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131d\u0131r. K\u00e2\u011f\u0131t\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesine gelip, dolmayan kapasitelerinizin \u00fczerine, umutlanarak kapasite eklemeyin. Bat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131z muhte\u015fem olur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4283954407\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimde k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gidece\u011fi s\u00f6ylentisi ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da buna s\u0131cak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bir anda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Uzun s\u00fcredir 49 \u2013 50&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-47155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47155\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}