{"id":47128,"date":"2016-10-07T16:40:48","date_gmt":"2016-10-07T13:40:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=47128"},"modified":"2016-10-07T16:40:48","modified_gmt":"2016-10-07T13:40:48","slug":"erol-gurcan-eylul-2016-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-eylul-2016-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Eyl\u00fcl 2016 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>ABD Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u0130stihdam Raporuna g\u00f6re Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k 170 bin seviyelerindeki art\u0131\u015f beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalarak ayl\u0131k bazda 156 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da daha geni\u015f bir \u015fekilde ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczere a\u00e7\u0131klanan verinin ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2len kuvvetli bir ihtim\u00e2l olarak masada kalmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-445930132\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-47129 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-1.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-abd-tdi-1\" width=\"483\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-1.png 483w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-1-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-47130 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-2.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-abd-tdi-2\" width=\"605\" height=\"88\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-2.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/erol-g\u00fcrcan-ABD-TD\u0130-2-300x44.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ABD Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u0130stihdam Raporu beklentilerden daha zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergileyerek, 8 Kas\u0131m\u2019da yap\u0131lacak olan ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde 1-2 Kas\u0131m tarihlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kald\u0131rarak k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki stresin bir miktar azalmas\u0131na destek oldu denilebilir. Konsens\u00fcs tahmin seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 156 bin ile 155 bin olan beklenti aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n bir seviyede a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna ek olarak ayl\u0131k Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n da yine beklenti aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 olan % 0.2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi de enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde bu taraftan ekstra bir bask\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmekte.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, raporun detaylar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallerin oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmekte de fayda var. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen 0.1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0130\u015f G\u00fcc\u00fc Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131n 0.1\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fle % 62.9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesinden kaynaklanmakta. Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019in politika hedeflerinden biri olan i\u015f aramaktan vazge\u00e7mi\u015f olan i\u015f\u00e7ilerin yeniden kazan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmekte. Di\u011fer taraftan ortalama haftal\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma saatlerinin 34.3\u2019ten 34.4\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f olmas\u0131 ABD Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi verileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imler nedeniyle, raporun detaylar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallerin piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan sindirilmesi pek de zor olmad\u0131. Kas\u0131m FOMC\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimali b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de (en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik), Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etmekte. Son CME g\u00fcncellemesine g\u00f6re, Fed Funds vadelilerinin d\u00fcne g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermeyerek Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n % 64 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermekte.<\/p>\n<p>Toparlamak gerekirse, hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki stresin artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an \u0130stihdam verilerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olarak risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekleyici y\u00f6nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu veri sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen iyimserlik; Fed \u00fcyelerinden gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n tonlamas\u0131, Avrupa\u2019daki Brexit ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler, bundan sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerin Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini kuvvetlendirmesi ile siyasi ve jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle k\u0131sa s\u00fcrebilir ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Bug\u00fcn TS\u0130 17:30\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Fischer\u2019\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada verece\u011fi mesajlar kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olabilece\u011finden ve\/veya piyasalar\u0131n gelecek haftaki seyrine etki edebilece\u011finden takip edilmeli.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nedir? Neden \u00d6nemli?<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2271031678\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD \u0130stihdam Raporu, iki farkl\u0131 anket arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla toplanan istihdam piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6stergenin tek bir dok\u00fcman olarak yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015f halidir. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, i\u015fi olmayanlar\u0131n toplam i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu istatistik, hanehalk\u0131ndan 60.000 ki\u015fiye uygulanarak elde edilmektedir. Her bir ki\u015fi, ka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 i\u015fi oldu\u011funa ya da tam\/yar\u0131-zamanl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n bir defa say\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u015fsiz stat\u00fcs\u00fcnde de\u011ferlendirilmek i\u00e7in ki\u015finin aktif olarak i\u015f ar\u0131yor olmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. Fiyat istikrar\u0131yla birlikte tam istihdam da temel hedefleri aras\u0131nda olan Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; ABD Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u0130stihdam Raporuna g\u00f6re Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k 170 bin seviyelerindeki art\u0131\u015f beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalarak ayl\u0131k bazda 156 bin art\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47128\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}