{"id":46925,"date":"2016-09-24T20:42:13","date_gmt":"2016-09-24T17:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46925"},"modified":"2016-09-25T00:18:27","modified_gmt":"2016-09-24T21:18:27","slug":"moodys-karari-analizim-ve-moodysin-isledigi-suc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/moodys-karari-analizim-ve-moodysin-isledigi-suc\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody&#8217;s Karar\u0131, Analizim ve Moodys&#8217;in i\u015fledi\u011fi su\u00e7"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da Moodys konusunda uzunca bir yaz\u0131 yazd\u0131m. \u0130lk b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak Moodys ne dedi? yorumsuz bir \u015fekilde bunu aktard\u0131m. Bunu izleyen ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ise kendi de\u011ferlendirmemi verdim. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ise Moodys&#8217;in i\u015fledi\u011fi su\u00e7a\u00a0\u00a0dikkat \u00e7ekmek istedim.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-408599646\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I. B\u00d6L\u00dcM &#8211; MOODY&#8217;S NE DED\u0130?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Moody&#8217;s \u00a0yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 not indiriminin gerek\u00e7elerini \u015f\u00f6yle a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f (A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da mavi ile yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f c\u00fcmleler \u00e7evirebildi\u011fim kadar\u0131yla\u00a0kendilerine ait c\u00fcmlelerdir. \u0130ngilizce olan a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n tamam\u0131 bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n en alt\u0131nda verilmi\u015ftir.);<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The increase in the risks related to the country&#8217;s sizeable external funding requirements. (<span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00dclkenin y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f borca ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki risklerin art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/span>)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The weakening in previously supportive credit fundamentals, particularly growth and institutional strength (<span style=\"color: #000000;\">daha \u00f6nce kredi notunu destekleyen B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kurumsal yap\u0131daki zay\u0131flama<\/span>)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Neden Bu Not Verildi (Rating Rationale)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">&#8220;Son y\u0131llarda, \u00a0T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin kredi not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, &#8220;d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demeler&#8221; dengesizliklerinin d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ve g\u00fcven kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile desteklenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi baz\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici z\u0131tl\u0131k sergilemektedir.&#8221;<\/span> (yani diyorlar ki; sizin Baa3 notunuz art\u0131k \u015fu an d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ve g\u00fcven kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bulundu\u011funuz riskleri temsil etmiyor.)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">May\u0131s 2013&#8217;de verdi\u011fimiz Baa3&#8217;e y\u00fckseltme karar\u0131m\u0131z iki \u00f6nemli tespiti i\u00e7eriyordu: Birincisi; Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve mali performans Baa3 notuyla uyumlu olarak devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131. \u0130kincisi de; var olan politik istikrarla, yurt i\u00e7i tasarruflar desteklenerek, ekonominin ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak ve ithal edilen sermayeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n\u00a0\u00a0yap\u0131lmas\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f dengesizliklerin azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Fakat, 2013&#8217;deki not art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sonra, \u00a0\u00fclkenin zay\u0131f d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demeler dengesizli\u011finden kaynaklanacak bir \u015fok riski daha net ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ki bunun temel sebebi; s\u00fcreklilik arz eden y\u00fcksek politik riskler ve \u00e7ok dalgal\u0131 bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131nda Baa3 notunu destekleyen kredi temelleri (fundamentalleri) zaman i\u00e7inde bozuldu. \u00d6zellikle vurgulamak gerekirse, Moodys ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u0131\u015f kaynakla ve t\u00fcketimle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 nedeniyle gelecek y\u0131llarda yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131, reform program\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Moodys T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin kredi durumundaki yava\u015f bozulman\u0131n gelecek 2-3 y\u0131lda s\u00fcrece\u011fine inan\u0131yor ve Ba1 not seviyesi bahsedilen riskleri daha do\u011fru yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Ba1 notunun dura\u011fan olmas\u0131 ise, b\u00fct\u00e7enin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc durumuyla \u015foklar\u0131 daha iyi emebilece\u011fi ve esnek \u00f6nlemlerin al\u0131nabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2026122831\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da mavi ile yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f c\u00fcmleler Moodys&#8217;in kendi c\u00fcmleleridir. Yukar\u0131daki b\u00f6l\u00fcmden sonra izleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcmde Moodys \u00a0\u0130ki ana ba\u015fl\u0131k a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n ilki <strong>&#8220;Birinci Sebep(Driver): \u00dclkenin y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f kaynakla finanse edilmesine dair artan\u00a0riskler&#8221;<\/strong> \u00a0ikinci ba\u015fl\u0131k ise; \u00a0<strong>&#8220;\u0130kinci sebep(driver): Daha \u00f6nce destekleyici olan kredi temellerindeki zay\u0131flama&#8221; <\/strong>olarak belirlenmi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmleri aynen \u00e7evirmedim \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc uzun. Bunun yerine bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar alt\u0131nda \u00f6zetle ne dediklerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da yaz\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;Birinci Sebep: \u00dclkenin y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f kaynakla finanse edilmesine dair artan\u00a0riskler&#8221; <\/strong>k\u0131sm\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir finansal ve jeopolitik ortamda oldu\u011fu belirtilerek, bu ortam\u0131n d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 koyabilme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 savunuluyor. E\u011fer aniden d\u0131\u015f finansman kaynaklar\u0131 kesilirse, veya d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde bir erime olursa, T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f kayna\u011fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00a0d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demeler krizi ya\u015fayabilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ana ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda ise;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>hala cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve benzer nota sahip \u00fclkelerin \u00fczerinde bir cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z oldu\u011funu<\/li>\n<li>cari a\u00e7\u0131k son zamanlarda d\u00fczelme g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc verse de bunun da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle oldu\u011funu,<\/li>\n<li>Rusya ile ile ili\u015fkilerin bozulmas\u0131yla Turizm gelirlerinde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %27.9 azalma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn GSYH&#8217;N\u0131n %4.4&#8217;\u00fc oldu\u011funu ve d\u0131\u015f gelirlerin de %15&#8217;i oldu\u011funu belirterek, Rusya ile ili\u015fkiler d\u00fczelse bile, bir miktar d\u00fczelme olabilece\u011fini ama politik ve g\u00fcvenlik riskleri y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Turizmin eski seviyesine gelmeyece\u011fini;<\/li>\n<li>\u00dclkenin bor\u00e7lulu\u011funun y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve devlet kesiminin <strong>bu y\u0131l<\/strong> yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 155.8 milyar dolar \u00f6deme yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ve ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile birlikte 2016 ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda bunun GSYH&#8217;n\u0131n %26&#8217;s\u0131na denk gelece\u011fini,<\/li>\n<li>\u00dclkenin bu b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin aniden olumsuza d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini \u00a0ve son 18 ayda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin dengesiz oldu\u011funun TL&#8217;nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan\u00a0 ve portf\u00f6y volatilitesinden g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc,<\/li>\n<li>\u015eu ana kadar, darbe giri\u015fiminde bile bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme konusunda bir sorun olmasa da, \u00a0i\u00e7 politik risklerin ve jeopolitik tehditlerin artmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselen d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demeler krizi riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0Moodys&#8217;in &#8220;d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k&#8221;\u00a0g\u00f6stergesine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin benzer not grubundaki \u00fclkelerden daha olumsuz durumda oldu\u011funu, 2016&#8217;da bu g\u00f6stergenin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 187.3 oldu\u011funu ve 2013&#8217;teki de\u011fere g\u00f6re %20 yukar\u0131da oldu\u011funu<\/li>\n<li>Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yerinde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n elinin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu ve d\u00f6vizdeki dalgalanmalara m\u00fcdahale edebilmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>vurgulam\u0131\u015flar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1270186341\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>&#8220;\u0130kinci sebep: Daha \u00f6nce destekleyici olan kredi temellerindeki zay\u0131flama&#8221;\u00a0<\/strong>k\u0131sm\u0131nda ise, kurumsal g\u00fcc\u00fcn zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, darbe giri\u015fiminden sonra bunun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve ileride uygulanmas\u0131 beklenen yap\u0131sal reformlara zarar verece\u011fini yazm\u0131\u015flar. Kurumsal g\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7erken de D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu&#8217;nun Rekabet\u00e7ilik g\u00f6stergesini baz alm\u0131\u015flar. 11 \u00fclke a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kayarak 75. s\u0131raya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc belirtmi\u015fler. Bu arada son d\u00fczenlemelerin ve \u00f6zel kesimdeki \u015firketlere el konulmas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rarak yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131 bozup b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi negatif etkileyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fler.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak da 2016-2019 aras\u0131nda GSYH&#8217;n\u0131n ortalama %2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini beklediklerini, bunun 2010-2014 aras\u0131ndaki %5.5 ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirttikten sonra yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f finansman ve t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu yazm\u0131\u015flar. raporun ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde ise neden DURA\u011eAN g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flar ve buna sebep olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kamu borcu \/GSYH olarak g\u00f6stermi\u015fler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Neden Moodys&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 bu kadar ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 verdim?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bilimsel yakla\u015f\u0131m bunu gerektiriyor ve yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bildi\u011finiz zaman, bu a\u00e7\u0131klamadaki tutars\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha net g\u00f6rebilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>\u0130K\u0130NC\u0130 B\u00d6L\u00dcM &#8211; DE\u011eERLEND\u0130RME VE YORUM \u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Moodys bizim notumuzu May\u0131s 2013&#8217;de yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada ekonomimiz %4.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %8-9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ama onlar tahminlerini yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015flar ve T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sergileyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015flerdi. Halbuki b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2014&#8217;de %2.9&#8217;a d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, 2015&#8217;de %3.8&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve 2016 i\u00e7in de IMF&#8217;ye g\u00f6re %3.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fiz. Yani tahminlerinin \u00a0ve beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f (Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Moodys&#8217;in gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik tahminlerine g\u00fcvenmiyorum). Yukar\u0131daki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar i\u00e7inde hi\u00e7 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye de\u011findiklerini g\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcz m\u00fc?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46927\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Turkiye-gdp-growth.png\" alt=\"turkiye-gdp-growth\" width=\"611\" height=\"283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Turkiye-gdp-growth.png 914w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Turkiye-gdp-growth-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Turkiye-gdp-growth-768x355.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 611px) 100vw, 611px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Hay\u0131r k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye de\u011finmiyorlar. Daha do\u011frusu i\u015flerine gelmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 veriliyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46928\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/world-gdp-growth.png\" alt=\"world-gdp-growth\" width=\"609\" height=\"294\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/world-gdp-growth.png 908w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/world-gdp-growth-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/world-gdp-growth-768x370.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu iki grafi\u011fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda d\u00fcnya GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin de s\u00fcrekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sanki T\u00fcrkiye uzayda tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir \u00fclke ve sadece T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine bak\u0131l\u0131r. E\u011fer sadece Avrupa b\u00f6lgesi ya da ABD&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine bakacak olursak, Avrupa y\u00fczde 0.50 ABD ise y\u00fczde 2&#8217;nin alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.\u00a0\u015eu anki k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar i\u00e7erisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 4.2&#8217;den 3.8&#8217;e gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye vurgu yaparak not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Elbette ki; ge\u00e7mi\u015f verileri baz alarak not vermiyorlar. Gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin tahminlerini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak not veriyorlar. Bu kurumlar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminler ortada. Notumuzu y\u00fckseltirken, en az %4.5 ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklemi\u015fler ama tutmam\u0131\u015f. \u015eimdi de darbe giri\u015fimi nedeniyle ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. Evet do\u011frudur 3. \u00e7eyrekte negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6rebiliriz, fakat buna dayanarak\u00a0gelecek 3 y\u0131lda ortalama %2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fimizi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeyi anlayamam. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar i\u00e7inde en \u00e7ok kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m nokta ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelimizin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu, yap\u0131sal reformlarla \u00a0d\u0131\u015f finansmana ba\u011fl\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici talebiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi gereklili\u011fidir. \u00a0Ekonomi y\u00f6netimimiz bu vurguyu kesinlikle dikkate alarak \u00f6nlemlerini almal\u0131. \u015eu an kredi kartlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki taksit say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, ithalat\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. \u015eu anki k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda \u00a0ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede z\u0131platmam\u0131z s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil ama ithalat h\u0131zla z\u0131playabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Moodys&#8217;in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 her \u015feyi \u00e7\u00f6pe atmak ne kadar yanl\u0131\u015fsa, her s\u00f6yledi\u011fini do\u011fru kabul etmek veya desteklemek de o kadar yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kendimize faydal\u0131 olabilecek, bu \u00fclkenin istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131 yapabilecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri dikkate almam\u0131z gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusuna gelince&#8230; \u00a0notumuzu art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 s\u0131rada (May\u0131s 2013) hen\u00fcz 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k verisini bilmiyorduk. O s\u0131rada ellerinde 2012 y\u0131l sonu Cari a\u00e7\u0131k verisi vard\u0131 ve tahmin edin Cari a\u00e7\u0131k GSYH&#8217;n\u0131n % ka\u00e7\u0131yd\u0131? \u015eu an %4-4.5 aras\u0131nda olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n GSYH&#8217;ya oran\u0131 %9.01 imi\u015f. \u015eimdi diyorlar ki, &#8220;ayn\u0131 not grubundaki \u00fclkelerin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan y\u00fckseksiniz&#8221;. Peki tekrar 2012 sonuna d\u00f6nersek, o s\u0131rada bizim not grubumuzdaki \u00fclkelerin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bizden \u00e7ok mu y\u00fcksekti. Yerinizde s\u0131k\u0131 durun o s\u0131rada o not grubunda oaln en y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan \u00fclke bizdik. Bu y\u00fczden bu gerek\u00e7e sadece komik.<\/p>\n<p>Moodys bir senaryo yazm\u0131\u015f ve d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak volatiliteyi g\u00f6stermi\u015f ve dolar\/TL&#8217;deki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. L\u00fctfen tekrar hesaplas\u0131nlar Dolar\/TL volatilitesi ile di\u011fer \u00fclke paralar\u0131n\u0131n dolara kar\u015f\u0131 volatilitesi aras\u0131nda ne kadar fark var? \u015eu an oynakl\u0131k \u00e7ok mu y\u00fcksek? A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte 12 ayl\u0131k % de\u011fi\u015fimleri hesaplad\u0131m. Asl\u0131nda volatilite g\u00f6stergesi olarak standart sapmalar hesaplanabailir fakat di\u011fer para birimleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ben 12 ayl\u0131k % de\u011fi\u015fimleri ald\u0131m. \u015eu an dolar\/TL 12 ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re, %2.36 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bulunuyor. Zaman zaman oynakl\u0131k artm\u0131\u015f ama en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu zamanlar Moodys notumuzu art\u0131rd\u0131ktan sonraki d\u00f6nemdir. 2014 ba\u015f\u0131nda Dolar\/TL %30 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f. Ayn\u0131 \u015fey 2015&#8217;de olmu\u015f. \u00a0O s\u0131ralarda Moodys nerelerdeydi?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46932\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/dolar-tl-oynaklik2.png\" alt=\"dolar-tl-oynaklik2\" width=\"519\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/dolar-tl-oynaklik2.png 519w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/dolar-tl-oynaklik2-300x219.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 519px) 100vw, 519px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki iki grafikte ise; G\u00fcney Afrika Rand\u0131 ile Euro-Dolar paritesindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k % de\u011fi\u015fimler var. Daha bir\u00e7ok para birimini verebilirim ama en istikrarl\u0131 para diyebilece\u011fimiz Euro-dolar paritesine bakar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46933\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/usd-zar-oynaklik.png\" alt=\"usd-zar-oynaklik\" width=\"519\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/usd-zar-oynaklik.png 519w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/usd-zar-oynaklik-300x219.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 519px) 100vw, 519px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46934\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/eurusd-oynaklik.png\" alt=\"eurusd-oynaklik\" width=\"519\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/eurusd-oynaklik.png 519w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/eurusd-oynaklik-300x219.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 519px) 100vw, 519px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Euro-Dolar paritesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %20 yukar\u0131 %20 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bantlarda gidip gelmi\u015f. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Euro-dolar paritesi %20 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 oynarken, bu oynakl\u0131k olmuyor mu? T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir\u00e7ok bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma var. Bunun temel sebebi de FED olup, piyasalar\u0131 FEDup (b\u0131kk\u0131n)\u00a0durumuna getirdiler.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim portf\u00f6y ak\u0131mlar\u0131na&#8230; TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Murat \u00c7etinkaya&#8217;n\u0131n\u00a0son sunumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik bulunuyor. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere May\u0131s-Haziran ve Temmuz aylar\u0131nda ciddi bir bor\u00e7lanma senedi ak\u0131m\u0131 olmu\u015f ve Temmuz ay\u0131nda 10 milyar dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f. Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel olarak d\u00f6viz kuru oynakl\u0131k endeksi de d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46930\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/portfoy-akimlari.png\" alt=\"portfoy-akimlari\" width=\"477\" height=\"456\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/portfoy-akimlari.png 477w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/portfoy-akimlari-300x287.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 477px) 100vw, 477px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu \u015fartlarda notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karmak yanl\u0131\u015f olmu\u015f. Oynakl\u0131k varsa her yerde var ve i\u015fin ilgin\u00e7 yan\u0131 k\u00fcresel bazda oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Tamam&#8230; FED faiz art\u0131r\u0131rsa t\u00fcm GO\u00dc&#8217;ler bundan etkilenecektir. Fakat T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi c\u0131mb\u0131zla \u00e7ekip almak hakkaniyetli de\u011fil. \u00dcstelik darbe giri\u015fiminde halk\u0131n 10-15 milyar dolar aras\u0131 d\u00f6viz bozdurabildi\u011fini, bankalardan para \u00e7ekme kuyruklar\u0131 olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SON S\u00d6Z<\/strong>: Moodys&#8217;in raporunda hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu baz\u0131 noktalar (B\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli) \u00a0var ama T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin notunu yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyenin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in yeterli ekonomik delil yok.\u00a0<strong>Bir derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu bir \u00fclkeye not verirken neye not verir? ve as\u0131l \u00f6nemli kriter nedir? \u00a0<\/strong>Bu \u00fclkenin hazinesi borcunu \u00f6deyebilir mi? \u00d6deyemez mi? konusunda not verir. E\u011fer borcu \u00f6deyecek olan hazine ise; \u015fu an kamunun toplam d\u0131\u015f borcu 80-85 milyar dolar ise, bunu \u00f6deyemeyecek miyiz? \u00a0Bu \u00fclke Osmanl\u0131&#8217;dan kalan t\u00fcm bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6dedi\u011fi gibi IMF borcunu da s\u0131f\u0131rlad\u0131.\u00a0Notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, sadece kendi kafalar\u0131nda olu\u015fturduklar\u0131 bir senaryo var. 2013&#8217;te de senaryo yazm\u0131\u015flard\u0131 tutmad\u0131. Bunun tutaca\u011f\u0131na kim garanti verebilir? \u00a0Moodys&#8217;in karar\u0131n\u0131 siyasi bir karar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. 2013&#8217;de Beyaz Saray&#8217;da mutlu tokala\u015fma yap\u0131l\u0131rken notumuzu art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131nda da siyasi bir karar oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim, \u015fimdi de ayn\u0131 \u015feyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Hatta kendisini rahmetle and\u0131\u011f\u0131m, duayen Ali \u0130hsan Gelberi a\u011fbimiz, 2013&#8217;de Moodys notumuzu art\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce \u00a0adeta kehanet gibi bir twit atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46935\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/ali-ihsan-gelberi.png\" alt=\"ali-ihsan-gelberi\" width=\"454\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/ali-ihsan-gelberi.png 631w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/ali-ihsan-gelberi-300x112.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 454px) 100vw, 454px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bir g\u00fcn eski Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131m\u0131zdan biri ile oturuyoruz. Bana 2001 krizinin nas\u0131l geldi\u011fini anlatt\u0131. 1999&#8217;da IMF ile her konuda anla\u015fm\u0131\u015flar ve sabah IMF ile anla\u015fma haberini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak ama ofise geldi\u011finde \u00f6n\u00fcnde 2-3 sayfa bir faks buluyor. Bu faks IMF&#8217;den geliyor ve yeni \u015fartlar \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyorlar. Bunun \u00fczerine ABD&#8217;de bulunan Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;a ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ama bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc ula\u015fam\u0131yor. Sonra \u00f6\u011freniyor ki; Ecevit Irak&#8217;a kuzeyden ABD askerlerinin girmesi konusundaki tezkere i\u00e7in &#8220;\u00d6nce benim cesedimi \u00e7i\u011fnemelisiniz&#8221; demi\u015f. Sonras\u0131 malum&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Hepinizin okumas\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong>&#8220;Para Harekat\u0131&#8221;<\/strong> Kitab\u0131m\u0131 \u00fccretsiz olarak internete koydum. Bu kitapta bir\u00e7ok krizi inceliyorum ama roman format\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in kolay okunuyor. O kitab\u0131 okumayanlar <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YoL0az9164\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">buradan indirebilirler.<\/a><\/strong> Ama okuyanlar \u015eili, Meksika ve Bolivya krizleri b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini tekrar okusunlar. Amerika&#8217;n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle \u015eili ve Meksika&#8217;da ne t\u00fcr dolaplar \u00e7evirdi\u011fini g\u00f6rebilirler. IMF dedi\u011fimiz kurum, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerdeki paralar\u0131n\u0131n tahsilat\u0131n\u0131 yapan kurumdur. \u00a0D\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyen ekonomik kurumlar\u0131n kararlar\u0131, her zaman b\u00fcy\u00fcklerin siyasi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korur. Moodys karar\u0131 da bunlardan biridir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>III &#8211; B\u00d6L\u00dcM &#8211; &#8220;B\u0130LG\u0130 BAZLI P\u0130YASA DLANDIRICILI\u011eI&#8221; SU\u00c7TUR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Moodys Yalan S\u00f6yledi\u00a0ve &#8220;bilgi bazl\u0131 \u00a0manip\u00fclasyon&#8221; su\u00e7u i\u015fledi.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, 21 Eyl\u00fcl g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, <strong>g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeyi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay (Ekim)\u00a0i\u00e7inde tamamlayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015flerdir. Ama 2\u00a0g\u00fcn\u00a0ge\u00e7meden not karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00dcstelik <strong>&#8220;T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin darbe giri\u015fiminden sonra ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kayboldu&#8221;<\/strong> dedikten sonra bu not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131lar. Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 &#8220;nas\u0131l olsa, not a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 Ekim ay\u0131na kald\u0131&#8221; diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek; \u00a0uluslararas\u0131 olumlu konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc de g\u00f6rerek borsada al\u0131m yapt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en hafta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m e\u011fitici b\u00fcltende \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli konunun oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim. Bunlar FED toplant\u0131s\u0131, Moodys notu ve TCMB&#8217;nin PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u015feklindeydi. E\u011fer 21 Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;de yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama olmasa, \u00f6zellikle tahvil piyasas\u0131 ve borsa bu kadar olumlu olmaz ve Moodys&#8217;i beklemeye devam ederdi ve bu bekleyi\u015f temkinli bir bekleyi\u015f olurdu. \u00a0SPK&#8217;nun 107. Maddesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekildedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>2. Bilgi Bazl\u0131 Piyasa Doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (SPKn md. 107\/2)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">SPKn&#8217;nun 107 nci maddesinin ikinci f\u0131kras\u0131nda (107\/2), ayn\u0131 maddenin birinci f\u0131kras\u0131nda (107\/1) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen i\u015flem bazl\u0131 piyasa doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na paralel olarak, sermaye piyasas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131, de\u011ferini ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek bilgiye dayanan baz\u0131 fiiller cezai m\u00fceyyideye ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. An\u0131lan d\u00fczenleme, <strong>&#8220;sermaye piyasas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131, de\u011ferlerini veya yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemek amac\u0131yla yalan, yanl\u0131\u015f veya yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bilgi veren, s\u00f6ylenti \u00e7\u0131karan, haber veren, yorum yapan veya rapor haz\u0131rlayan ya da bunlar\u0131 yayan ve <span style=\"color: #800080;\">bu suretle menfaat sa\u011flayan<\/span>&#8220;<\/strong> ki\u015filerin 2 y\u0131ldan 5 y\u0131la kadar hapis ve be\u015f bin g\u00fcne kadar adl\u00ee para cezas\u0131 ile cezaland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00fckme ba\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moodys&#8217;in bu bilgi manip\u00fclasyonu ile kendisine parasal kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez ama kendi \u00fclkesine siyasi \u00e7\u0131kar sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcphe yoktur. \u00a0Bu yolla T\u00fcrkiye ABD aras\u0131ndaki pazarl\u0131klarda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye sopa g\u00f6sterilmi\u015f ve eli zay\u0131flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oluyor. Bundan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kar olabilir mi? Bu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 ka\u00e7 parayla \u00f6l\u00e7ersiniz? SPK&#8217;n\u0131n konuya el atarak savc\u0131l\u0131\u011fa su\u00e7 duyurusunda bulunmas\u0131 ve Moodys&#8217;in Bilgi Maniplasyonu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmesi gerekir. \u0130talya S&amp;P ve FITCH&#8217;i mahkemeye verdi ve yarg\u0131lad\u0131 ama onlar verilen not karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkeye zarar verdi\u011fi tezine dayand\u0131lar. Fakat bizdeki durumda &#8220;bilgi bazl\u0131 piyasay\u0131&#8221; etkilemek ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zarar etmesine neden olmakt\u0131r. Pazartesi piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ciddi anlamda zarar etmelerine neden olacak olan, \u00a0bu sa\u011f g\u00f6sterip sol vurma i\u015finin \u00fczerine gidilmelidir. Hukuk\u00e7u de\u011filim bilmiyorum ama uluslararas\u0131 hukuk normlar\u0131na g\u00f6re yap\u0131labilecek bir \u015fey varsa yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hi\u00e7 bir derecelendirme kurulu\u015funu verdi\u011fi karar nedeniyle mahkemeye vermek anlaml\u0131 de\u011fildir. \u00a0Fakat, <strong>bu kurulu\u015f yalan s\u00f6ylemi\u015fse ve bir \u00fclkedeki yerli yabanc\u0131 t\u00fcm yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nlendirecek a\u00e7\u0131klama yapm\u0131\u015fsa<\/strong> bunun teknik ad\u0131 <strong>&#8220;bilgi bazl\u0131 piyasa doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r&#8221;<\/strong>. E\u011fer 21 Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;deki a\u00e7\u0131klama olmasayd\u0131, Ekim ay\u0131 ortalar\u0131na kadar nas\u0131l olsa stres yaratacak ba\u015fka unsur kalmad\u0131 diye, borsan\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine devam edebilece\u011fi yorumunu yapmazd\u0131m. &#8220;Bence Moodys karar\u0131 gelene kadar beklemede kalmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r&#8221; derdim. \u00a0E\u011fer devlet kurumlar\u0131 Moodys&#8217;i bu bilgi maniplasyonu nedeniyle mahkemeye vermiyorsa, sizler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 olarak e\u011fer Moodys&#8217;in 21 Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;deki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan sonra al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ispatlayabiliyorsan\u0131z, zarar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n tazmini i\u00e7in bireysel olarak dava a\u00e7abilirsiniz. Bunun \u00f6n\u00fcnde engel yok. \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/f4227a1c-62cc-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">\u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n mahkeme s\u00fcreci konusunda bilgilenmek i\u00e7in buray\u0131 t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z.<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Belki mahkemelerden bir \u015fey \u00e7\u0131kmayabilir ama b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya ve \u00f6zellikle de yabanc\u0131 haber ajanslar\u0131 bunu haber yaparlar ve Moodys&#8217;in &#8220;Ekim ay\u0131nda g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irece\u011fiz deyip, 2 g\u00fcn sonra notu de\u011fi\u015ftirerek yalan s\u00f6yledi\u011fini&#8221; b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fcr. En az\u0131ndan bu faydas\u0131 olur. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>BORSA ve DOLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u015eimdi as\u0131l merak etti\u011finiz konunun &#8220;P\u0130YASALAR NE OLACAK? DOLAR NEREYE G\u0130DER? BORSA NEREYE KADAR D\u00dc\u015eER?&#8221; sorular\u0131 oldu\u011funu biliyorum. Bu konudaki yaz\u0131m\u0131 ise yar\u0131n yay\u0131nlayaca\u011f\u0131m. Fakat \u015fimdilik \u00e7ok merak edenler i\u00e7in k\u0131saca ilk etkilerin neler olabilece\u011fi konusunda fikir vereyim.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Say\u0131n Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;e kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. Yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir durumumuzu kaybetti\u011fimiz i\u00e7in bir miktar fon \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r ama zaten \u015fu ana kadar en az iki tane derecelendirme kurulu\u015fundan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclkelere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan fonlar b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. En \u00e7ok borsa ve dolar \u00fczerindeki etkileri g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Borsada ilk anda ortalama olarak 2500 puan ile 3500 puan aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenebilir. Yani y\u00fczde 3-5 aras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f normaldir. Bu a\u015famadan sonra b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 77.500 seviyesi diren\u00e7 olur ve endeks ilk yar\u0131m saat bir saat i\u00e7inde 75 bin ile 77.500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir yerde karar bulur. Bundan sonraki strateji ne olmal\u0131 sorusuna yar\u0131n de\u011finece\u011fim. \u00a0Dolar\/TL kuru ise 3.01 ile 3.04 aras\u0131nda bir kanala oturabilir. Ama darbe giri\u015fiminde 10-15 milyar dolar sat\u0131\u015f yapan halk\u0131m\u0131z bakars\u0131n\u0131z bu sefer de ayn\u0131 \u015feyi yapabilir. Dolardaki volatiliteyi azaltmak i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 bence d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahale <strong>ETMEMEL\u0130<\/strong>. Bunun yerine &#8220;gerekirse faizleri \u00e7ok sert art\u0131rabiliriz&#8221; diye g\u00fcrleyebilir. Bunun \u00e7ok faydas\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yar\u0131nki yaz\u0131mda piyasa analizini daha geni\u015f verece\u011fim ve canl\u0131 youtube yay\u0131n\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0**************************************************************<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.moodys.com\/research\/Moodys-Downgrades-Turkeys-Issuer-And-Bond-Ratings-To-Ba1-With--PR_354341\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><strong>MOODYS A\u00c7IKLAMASININ TAM \u0130NG\u0130L\u0130ZCE METN\u0130NE BURDAN ULA\u015eAB\u0130L\u0130RS\u0130N\u0130Z&#8230;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da Moodys konusunda uzunca bir yaz\u0131 yazd\u0131m. \u0130lk b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak Moodys ne dedi? yorumsuz bir \u015fekilde bunu aktard\u0131m. Bunu izleyen ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ise kendi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,769],"class_list":["post-46925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46925\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}