{"id":46882,"date":"2016-09-22T11:29:12","date_gmt":"2016-09-22T08:29:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46882"},"modified":"2016-09-22T11:29:16","modified_gmt":"2016-09-22T08:29:16","slug":"fed-mesajlari-ve-piyasalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-mesajlari-ve-piyasalar\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Mesajlar\u0131 ve Piyasalar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn gece FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 dakika \u00f6nce youtube ve periscope&#8217;dan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m yay\u0131nda ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde FED a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdim ve o s\u0131rada piyasalar\u0131n nas\u0131l tepki verdi\u011fini analiz etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/em> <\/strong>Bu yay\u0131nlar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu linklerden izleyebilirsiniz. FAkat uzun uzun izlemenize gerek kalmadan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimi verece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3542347437\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>YOUTUBE YAYINI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=LwoCJk5zu34\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=LwoCJk5zu34\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>PERISCOPE YAYINI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.periscope.tv\/yerdinc65\/1ZkJzWAnreyxv\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/www.periscope.tv\/yerdinc65\/1ZkJzWAnreyxv<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu haftaya ba\u015flarken e\u011fitici b\u00fcltende bu hafta i\u00e7in temkinli oldu\u011fumu ve \u00a0piyasalarda stres yaratacak \u00fc\u00e7 temel olgu oldu\u011funu vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bunlar FED toplant\u0131s\u0131, Moodys not karar\u0131 ve Bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak olan TCMB&#8217;nin PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131. FED toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemiyordum ama FED&#8217;in Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta art\u0131\u015f yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair\u00a0g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00a0sinyal verece\u011fini \u00a0ve bunun piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordum. Ger\u00e7ekten de FED faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131 ve Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal verdi ama Piyasalar barda\u011f\u0131n dolu taraf\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rerek olumluya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Dow endeksi %0.90 artarken DXY (dolar endeksi) geriledi. Yani ABD dolar\u0131 di\u011fer paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa neden Aral\u0131k vurgusuna olumsuz sinyal vermedi?<\/p>\n<p>Normalde Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda zaten faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmiyordu. Fakat hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, iki b\u00fcy\u00fck banka 2-3 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce FED&#8217;in bu toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fine dair analizler yay\u0131nlad\u0131lar. Bu analizler\u00a0beklentileri etkilemi\u015f olabilir. Fakat k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bu kadar olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 bence abart\u0131l\u0131. Piyasalar yukar\u0131 gitmek istiyorsa bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda barda\u011f\u0131n dolu taraf\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek isteyebiliyor. D\u00fcn FED&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda, art\u0131k Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kesin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda da bir toplant\u0131 var ama, Kas\u0131m&#8217;da ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri nedeniyle, FED pas ge\u00e7ebilir. \u015eu an piyasalar\u0131n kendini Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na haz\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda bu olumlu havay\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015f olabilir.\u00a0\u00a0ABD endeksleri adeta sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u015flamak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131ra dayanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve bu karar sonras\u0131nda alt s\u0131n\u0131rdan uzakla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015fte bu durum beni i\u015fkillendiriyor. Tam da &#8220;destek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131&#8221; diye herkes endi\u015fe ederken, Dow ve S&amp;P endekslerinin yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi ve bunun FED karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda olmas\u0131 art\u0131k tehlikenin t\u00fcm\u00fcyle ge\u00e7ti\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yaratarak, bu endekslerin tekrar yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayabilir ama, bir haber ya da geli\u015fme ile bir anda destekler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak laz\u0131m. Yani &#8220;her \u015fey olumluydu ne oldu da dow jones kendi deste\u011fini h\u0131zla k\u0131rd\u0131, herhangi bir haber falan da yok&#8221; dedi\u011finiz bir g\u00fcn olursa, sonras\u0131 tufan olur. \u015eunu da unutmay\u0131n ki; e\u011fer bariz ve herkes\u00e7e bilinen bir haber nedeniyle bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 gelmi\u015fse, bu t\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6mr\u00fc uzun olmuyor. Piyasa daha sonra toparlayabiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fitici b\u00fcltende yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere, \u00c7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131 FED sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, Borsa ile ilgili daha net yorumlar yapabilece\u011fimi ama haftan\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in temkinli oldu\u011fumu belirtmi\u015f ve hisselerde al\u0131m konusunda fazla i\u015ftahl\u0131 olunmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftim. Bu arada varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7inde Moodys a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yoktu. D\u00fcn Moodys&#8217;in yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu k\u0131sa a\u00e7\u0131klama piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan olumlu alg\u0131land\u0131 ve bu alg\u0131lama do\u011fruydu. Asl\u0131nda BIST-100&#8217;\u00fcn \u00a0\u00f6n\u00fcndeki en \u00f6nemli engellerden biri Moodys karar\u0131yd\u0131 ve bu stres \u015fimdilik ortadan kalkt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak d\u00fcnk\u00fc yay\u0131nlarda da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere, bug\u00fcn piyasa bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakarak a\u00e7\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Tahminen 78.500-79.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f bekliyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD endeksleri olumlu kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve \u015fu an a\u00e7\u0131k olan d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda da bu olumlu hava devam ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin di\u011fer piyasalara g\u00f6re pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fma ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. 78.500-79.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda bir s\u00fcre yatay ve hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli bir piyasa izleyebiliriz. \u00d6zellikle bug\u00fcnk\u00fc PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonraki (saat 14:00&#8217;de) hareket daha \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. PPK karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda e\u011fer BIST-100 \u00a0d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali vermezse, bu sefer 79.500 civar\u0131ndaki direnci ge\u00e7erek \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta 82 bin civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. E\u011fer endeks herhangi bir d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fme veya haberle veya hi\u00e7 bir haber olmadan, 77.500&#8217;\u00fcn alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ferse, bu seviyeyi stop olarak kullanmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z. Endeksin o seviyeye d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda \u00a0zarar\u0131na satmaya raz\u0131 olmayacak olanlar, 82 bin civar\u0131 hedefe g\u00f6re al\u0131m yapmamal\u0131lar. Endeksin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131ndaki ilk y\u00fckseli\u015finin ard\u0131ndan yatay ve hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli olabilece\u011fini belirttim. Bug\u00fcn ilk seansta 78.250 civar\u0131n\u0131n destek olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Bug\u00fcn hacmi de dikkatli izlememiz gerekecek. Saat 14:30 civar\u0131nda yeniden seans i\u00e7i yorum verece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2337807807\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>DOLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc yay\u0131nda dolar\u0131n 2.9650&#8217;nin alt\u0131na gerilemesi durumunda 2.94 civar\u0131na kadar gerileyebilece\u011fini vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Dolar \u015fu an 2.9515 seviyesinde bulunuyor. 2.9650 art\u0131k diren\u00e7 olmu\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Hafta sonuna kadar olan s\u00fcrede, d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir sorun olmazsa 2.9650 direncinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. Dolar k\u0131sa vadeli deste\u011fi olan 2.9465&#8217;i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarsa 2.92&#8217;lere do\u011fru gerileyecektir. Ama 2.92 civar\u0131nda yeniden dolar talebinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyorum. \u00a0Saat 14:30&#8217;da seans i\u00e7i yorumda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta ni\u00e7in yorum yazmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 soranlar ve ithamda bulunanlar oldu. Bayram \u00f6ncesinde rutin check-up&#8217;lar\u0131m vard\u0131. Ekstra testler gerekti ve bu testlerin \u00a0yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu haftan\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde genelde hastanedeydim. \u00c7ok \u015f\u00fck\u00fcr endi\u015fe edilen\u00a0baz\u0131 noktalarda sorun \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Baz\u0131 testler (sintigrafi) \u00a04 saat s\u00fcrebiliyor. Bazen cep tlf&#8217;numdan twit rt yapt\u0131m ama bilgisayar\u0131mdan uzakt\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1667307448\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>NOT<\/strong>: E\u011fitimlerimi soranlar vard\u0131. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgi i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/drerdincegitim.com\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/drerdincegitim.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Bu yaz\u0131 saat 09:17 itibariyle yaz\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn gece FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 dakika \u00f6nce youtube ve periscope&#8217;dan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m yay\u0131nda ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde FED a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdim ve o s\u0131rada piyasalar\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,769,715],"class_list":["post-46882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46882\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}