{"id":46797,"date":"2016-09-09T17:04:03","date_gmt":"2016-09-09T14:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46797"},"modified":"2016-09-09T17:04:03","modified_gmt":"2016-09-09T14:04:03","slug":"erol-gurcan-odemeler-dengesi-temmuz-2016-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-odemeler-dengesi-temmuz-2016-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; \u00d6demeler Dengesi Temmuz 2016 De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Temmuz 2016 \u00d6demeler Dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re Cari Denge 2.54 milyar dolar seviyesindeki piyasa beklentileriyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uyumlu olarak 2.60 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. B\u00f6ylelikle, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re % 1.8 azal\u0131\u015fla 28.93 milyar dolara gerileyerek bir miktar yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f serideki toparlanma e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015faret etti.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1773675689\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46798 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-1.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-cari-denge-1\" width=\"604\" height=\"154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-1.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-1-300x76.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46799 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-cari-denge-2\" width=\"605\" height=\"274\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2-300x136.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Temmuz 2016 d\u00f6nemi \u00d6demeler Dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re Cari Denge piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu bir \u015fekilde ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re % 16.7 iyile\u015fme g\u00f6stererek 2.60 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. B\u00f6ylelikle, Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re % 1.8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 28.93 milyar dolara gerileyerek yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f olsa da toparlanma e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-3.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46800 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-3.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-cari-denge-3\" width=\"605\" height=\"154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-3.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-3-300x76.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Cari dengedeki toparlanmaya D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi\u2019ndeki geli\u015fmeler destek olurken; Hizmet Dengesi\u2019ndeki net seyahat gelirleri kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve birincil gelir dengesi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f cari dengedeki toparlanman\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi\u2019ndeki toparlanma her ne kadar olumlu bir geli\u015fme gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ithalattaki % 20.6\u2019l\u0131k gerilemeye ek olarak ihracat\u0131n da % 12.8 gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok da olumlu bir tablo ortaya koymamaktad\u0131r. Di\u011fer taraftan, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde 639 milyon dolar net ithalat ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen parasal olmayan alt\u0131n kalemi son d\u00f6nemde net 416 milyon dolar net ihracat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-4.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46801 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-4.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-cari-denge-4\" width=\"428\" height=\"218\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-4.png 428w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-4-300x153.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 428px) 100vw, 428px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 taraf\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar kaynakl\u0131 giri\u015flerin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine 2.1 milyar dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 1.4 milyar dolar net giri\u015f kaydetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Burada yurti\u00e7i yerle\u015fiklerin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymet varl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki 1.1 milyar dolarl\u0131k azal\u0131\u015f en \u00f6nemli belirleyicilerden biri olmu\u015ftur. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yabanc\u0131 ki\u015filerin Nisan ay\u0131nda hisse senedi piyasas\u0131nda net 348 milyon dolar net sat\u0131m, tahvil piyasas\u0131nda ise net 600 milyon dolar net al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan kredilerle ilgili olarak, bankalar 420 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 net geri \u00f6demede bulunurken, di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rler 84 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 net kullan\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131mlar kaleminde 3.1 milyar dolar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan kredilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 420 milyon dolar net geri \u00f6demede bulundu\u011fu, genel h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 81 milyon dolar ve di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin ise 84 milyon dolar net kullan\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Temmuz ay\u0131nda resmi rezervler 1.7 milyar TL azal\u0131rken; net hata noksan kalemi bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla 3.9 milyar dolara ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ise 1.7 milyar dolar art\u0131\u015fla Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda 3.8 milyar dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-5.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46802 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-5.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-cari-denge-5\" width=\"411\" height=\"210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-5.png 411w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-5-300x153.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 411px) 100vw, 411px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazdaki toparlanma e\u011filimi bir miktar yava\u015flamakla birlikte devam etmektedir. Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc kaynakl\u0131 olarak hizmet gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynaklan\u0131yor olmas\u0131, toparlanma e\u011filiminin bir s\u00fcre daha da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na ya da bozulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecektir. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE verisinin beklentilerden olumlu, Cari Denge\u2019nin beklentilerle uyumlu ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise beklentilerin bir miktar alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerine devam etmesi konusunda elinin bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra kur taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde bu durumun da etkisinin oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2755660638\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Temmuz 2016 \u00d6demeler Dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re Cari Denge 2.54 milyar dolar seviyesindeki piyasa beklentileriyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uyumlu olarak 2.60 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46797\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}