{"id":46789,"date":"2016-09-09T15:25:12","date_gmt":"2016-09-09T12:25:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46789"},"modified":"2016-09-09T15:39:58","modified_gmt":"2016-09-09T12:39:58","slug":"erol-gurcan-ekonomik-buyume-2016-yili-2-ceyrek-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-ekonomik-buyume-2016-yili-2-ceyrek-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme 2016 Y\u0131l\u0131 2. \u00c7eyrek De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re % 3.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti. B\u00f6ylelikle, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 % 3.3 \u2013 3.5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki piyasa beklentilerinin bir miktar alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f oldu.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3278138629\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46790 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-1.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-buyume-1\" width=\"446\" height=\"230\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-1.png 446w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-1-300x155.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 446px) 100vw, 446px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Son aylarda Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerinde g\u00f6zlenen yava\u015flaman\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi 2. \u00c7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme de ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe nazaran bir miktar yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fclse de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filimi devam etti. Verinin piyasa beklentilerinin bir miktar alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle verinin etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 negatif olarak yorumluyoruz. Ancak, veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 esnada piyasada \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir dalgalanma g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini de not edelim.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46791 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-2.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-buyume-2\" width=\"426\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-2.png 426w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-2-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 426px) 100vw, 426px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Harcama Gruplar\u0131 baz\u0131nda verinin detaylar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir s\u00fcredir oldu\u011fu gibi yine \u00e7ok sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yerle\u015fiklerin t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ve devletin nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndan olu\u015ftu\u011fu, gayri safi sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu ve net d\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye herhangi bir katk\u0131 vermedi\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6yle ki, sadece i\u00e7 talep ve kamu harcamalar\u0131ndan gelen katk\u0131 5.46 puan seviyesinde. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle net d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131ndan herhangi bir pozitif\/negatif katk\u0131 gelmeseydi; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2. \u00e7eyrekte % 5.5 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olacakt\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 talep ve kamu taraf\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc katk\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak asgari \u00fccrete yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015f ve yurti\u00e7indeki Suriyeli m\u00fcltecilerden kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 2.29 puan negatif katk\u0131 veren net d\u0131\u015f ticaretin bu \u00e7eyrekte 4.12 puan negatif katk\u0131 vermi\u015f olmas\u0131 da dikkat \u00e7ekici olumsuz bir nokta olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu durum a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ihracatta \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesine kar\u015f\u0131n ithalatta g\u00f6zlenen sert art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, uzun s\u00fcredir sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu taraf\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli bir katk\u0131 gelmiyor olmas\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonun sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret eden \u00f6nemli noktalardan biridir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla bir miktar yava\u015flama g\u00f6stermesine ve piyasa beklentilerinden bir miktar daha olumsuz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etmesi veriye ili\u015fkin olumlu bir nokta olarak ifade edilebilir. Ancak, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim ve kamu harcamalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n; net d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve sabit sermaye olu\u015fumunun negatif katk\u0131 vermi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6stermemeye devam etmesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretlerinin de devam etmesine neden olmaktad\u0131r. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerinin 3. \u00c7eyrek ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin olduk\u00e7a olumsuz bir sinyal vermi\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n; 15 Temmuz s\u00fcreci sonras\u0131nda ekonomiyi destekleme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde at\u0131lan ve at\u0131lmaya devam etmekte olan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine do\u011fru etkilerini yans\u0131tmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in % 3.40 seviyesindeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimizi korumaya devam ediyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin bir miktar daha a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6zellikle enflasyon ve kur taraf\u0131ndaki seyrin imkan vermesi durumunda TCMB\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerine bir s\u00fcre daha devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46792\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-3.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-buyume-3\" width=\"429\" height=\"258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-3.png 429w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-3-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 429px) 100vw, 429px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re % 3.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti. B\u00f6ylelikle, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46789\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}