{"id":46764,"date":"2016-09-08T12:07:16","date_gmt":"2016-09-08T09:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46764"},"modified":"2016-09-08T12:15:33","modified_gmt":"2016-09-08T09:15:33","slug":"erol-gurcan-temmuz-2016-sanayi-uretimi-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-temmuz-2016-sanayi-uretimi-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Temmuz 2016 Sanayi \u00dcretimi De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu Temmuz ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. <\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3234675192\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler son aylarda yava\u015flama sinyalleri veren Sanayi \u00dcretiminin 3. \u00c7eyre\u011fe sert daralmayla ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti. Mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k bazda % 7.0, takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 4.9 ile olduk\u00e7a sert bir daralma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veri, piyasay\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli negatif olarak etkilese de bu etki kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131 ve BIST-100 veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede geri ald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46765 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-1.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-sanayi-uretimi-1\" width=\"481\" height=\"289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-1.png 481w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-1-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46766 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-2.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-sanayi-uretimi-2\" width=\"433\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-2.png 433w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-2-300x139.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 433px) 100vw, 433px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu sabah yay\u0131nlanan Temmuz ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi verileri piyasan\u0131n ve bizim beklentilerimizin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek ayl\u0131k ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sert bir daralma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Bu sert daralman\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak 15 Temmuz Darbe Giri\u015fiminden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en sert daralman\u0131n % 81.51 ile endeks \u00fczerinde en b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip olan \u0130malat Sanayinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz (Ayl\u0131k De\u011fi\u015fim: &#8211; % 7.7; Y\u0131ll\u0131k De\u011fi\u015fim: % 6.5). Ana Sanayi Gruplar\u0131 baz\u0131nda ise Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcketim \u0130malat\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen ayl\u0131k % 21.1, y\u0131ll\u0131k % 16.6 oran\u0131ndaki sert daralma ile Sermaye \u0130malat\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6zlenen \u00a0% 12.5 seviyesindeki sert daralma olduk\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekici negatif noktalar olarak not edilebilir. Ayl\u0131k bazda hi\u00e7bir sekt\u00f6r ya da ana sanayi grubunda y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6zlenmezken; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yaln\u0131zca ana sanayi gruplar\u0131ndan Enerji\u2019de % 1.8\u2019lik toparlanma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n 2. Yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi sert gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan son d\u00f6nemlerde bir miktar dengelenme e\u011filimine girmi\u015f olmas\u0131 bu durumun ana nedeni olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u00d6zetle, a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin hem man\u015fet hem de detay kalemler anlam\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a olumsuz oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi olan Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerini baz alarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hesaplamalara g\u00f6re 9 Eyl\u00fcl Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc (yar\u0131n) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 2. \u00c7eyrek ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k % 2.91 seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler 3. \u00c7eyrek ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin olduk\u00e7a olumsuz bir sinyal vermi\u015f olsa da; 15 Temmuz s\u00fcreci sonras\u0131nda ekonomiyi destekleme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde at\u0131lan ve at\u0131lmaya devam etmekte olan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine do\u011fru etkilerini yans\u0131tmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in % 3.40 seviyesindeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimizi korumaya devam ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, son aylarda 2. \u00c7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde yava\u015flamay\u0131 i\u015faret eden Sanayi \u00dcretimi verileri, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlarla birlikte 3. \u00c7eyre\u011fe daralmayla ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler piyasa \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli negatif bir etki b\u0131raksa da, bu etkinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve endeksin kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fcn\u00fcn geri kalan\u0131nda TS\u0130 14:45\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz karar\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle TS\u0130 15:30\u2019da ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verece\u011fi mesajlar piyasadaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olabilir. ECB\u2019nin mevcut para politikas\u0131nda herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-820198495\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46767 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-3.png\" alt=\"erol-gurcan-sanayi-uretimi-3\" width=\"675\" height=\"188\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-3.png 675w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Sanayi-\u00dcretimi-3-300x84.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu Temmuz ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler son aylarda yava\u015flama sinyalleri veren Sanayi \u00dcretiminin 3. \u00c7eyre\u011fe sert daralmayla ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46764\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}