{"id":46714,"date":"2016-09-05T11:53:19","date_gmt":"2016-09-05T08:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46714"},"modified":"2016-09-05T12:09:00","modified_gmt":"2016-09-05T09:09:00","slug":"agustos-2016-tufe-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/agustos-2016-tufe-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; A\u011fustos 2016 T\u00dcFE De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>A\u011fustos ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k &#8211; % 0.02 seviyesindeki piyasa beklentilerinden daha olumlu ve &#8211; % 0.31 seviyesindeki bizim beklentimizle uyumlu olarak ayl\u0131k bazda % 0.29 oran\u0131nda geriledi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 8.05 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-107019914\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Man\u015fet enflasyonda ayl\u0131k bazda g\u00f6zlenen <strong>gerilemede en \u00f6nemli katk\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> <strong>G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler<\/strong> ile <strong>Giyim ve Ayakkab\u0131<\/strong> gruplar\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.\u00a0 Ayr\u0131ca, Temmuz ay\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle <strong>t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine yap\u0131lan zam<\/strong>m\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki ayki enflasyon verilerinin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinden kaynakl\u0131 bir baz etkisinin oldu\u011funu da unutmamak gerekir. Ancak, <strong>Alkoll\u00fc \u0130\u00e7ecekler ve T\u00fct\u00fcn<\/strong> grubundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda da devam etmesi A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE\u2019nin daha da olumlu seviyelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan en \u00f6nemli unsurlardan biri oldu\u011funun da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek gerekir. Gecikmeli kur etkisinin \u00f6nemli belirleyicilerden biri oldu\u011fu <strong>\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon<\/strong> g\u00f6stergeleri taraf\u0131nda da son aylarda g\u00f6zlenen <strong>iyile\u015fmenin de A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda devam etti\u011fi <\/strong>g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>TCMB, A\u011fustos ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar metninde; son aylarda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme yapabilece\u011fi ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin beklendi\u011fi ifade edilmi\u015fti. A\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc destekledi\u011fi ve para politikas\u0131ndaki sadele\u015fme s\u00fcreci kapsam\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerinin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda TCMB\u2019nin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ancak, TCMB, yine ayn\u0131 metinde, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair geli\u015fmeler likidite politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirdi\u011fini ifade etmi\u015fti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 ve y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE beklentilerindeki bozulmay\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak <strong>TCMB\u2019nin A\u011fustos ay\u0131 PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda<\/strong>, para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme kapsam\u0131nda faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda <strong>en fazla 0.25 bp indirim<\/strong> yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son Enflasyon Raporu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00c7etinkaya\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131ndaki sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin tamamlanmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak \u201cmakul bir zaman\u0131\u201d i\u015faret ederek aceleci davran\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmesi de bu durumu destekler nitelikte.<\/p>\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n; 8 Eyl\u00fcl tarihindeki Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz karar\u0131 ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi Amerika Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 20 \u2013 21 Eyl\u00fcl tarihlerindeki kritik Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olmas\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin bu ay i\u00e7in elindeki \u00f6nemli bir avantaj. Bu tarihe kadar ge\u00e7ecek s\u00fcre\u00e7te kurun izleyece\u011fi seyir ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmeler TCMB\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki di\u011fer \u00f6nemli belirleyiciler olacakt\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle, T\u00fcrkiye kredi notunu 18 Temmuz tarihinde negatif izlemeye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u2019s\u2019ten gelecek olas\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama bu anlamda olduk\u00e7a kritik olacak. Moody\u2019s\u2019in team\u00fclen, negatif izleme karar\u0131n\u0131 takip eden 30 \u2013 90 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ya T\u00fcrkiye kredi notunu negatif izlemeden \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 ya da kredi notunda indirime gitmesi se\u00e7eneklerinden biri do\u011frultusunda aksiyon almas\u0131 bekleniyor. <strong>Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan verinin piyasa \u00fczerindeki etkilerini k\u0131sa vadeli pozitif olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor, Moody\u2019s riski s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc m\u00fcddet\u00e7e yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin bir miktar k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl 2016 T\u00dcFE verileri 3 Ekim 2016 tarihinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4244590115\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE\u2019ye ili\u015fkin Tablo ve Grafikler<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46715 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-1.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-1\" width=\"604\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-1.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-1-300x89.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46716 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-2.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-2\" width=\"351\" height=\"141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-2.png 351w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-2-300x121.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 351px) 100vw, 351px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46717 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-3.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-3\" width=\"605\" height=\"69\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-3.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-3-300x34.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46718 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-4.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-4\" width=\"604\" height=\"182\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-4.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/t\u00fcfe-erolg\u00fcrcan-4-300x90.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k &#8211; % 0.02 seviyesindeki piyasa beklentilerinden daha olumlu ve &#8211; % 0.31 seviyesindeki bizim beklentimizle uyumlu olarak ayl\u0131k&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46714\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}