{"id":46601,"date":"2016-08-23T14:18:29","date_gmt":"2016-08-23T11:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46601"},"modified":"2016-08-23T15:39:38","modified_gmt":"2016-08-23T12:39:38","slug":"tcmb-surpriz-yapmadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tcmb-surpriz-yapmadi\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; TCMB, S\u00fcrpriz Yapmad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong>Gecelik faiz oranlar\u0131: Marjinal fonlama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 8,75\u2019ten y\u00fczde 8,5\u2019e indirilirken, Merkez Bankas\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,25 d\u00fczeyinde sabit tutuldu<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,5 d\u00fczeyinde sabit tutuldu<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi faiz oranlar\u0131: Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi uygulamas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Bankalararas\u0131 Para Piyasas\u0131\u2019nda saat 16.00\u201317.00 aras\u0131 gecelik vadede uygulanan Merkez Bankas\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 0 d\u00fczeyinde sabit tutulurken, bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10,25\u2019ten y\u00fczde 10\u2019a indirilmi\u015ftir.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>TCMB piyasa beklentilerine paralel olarak faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131ndaki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerine devam etti. Herhangi bir faiz indirimi yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 durumunda, \u201cTCMB\u2019nin piyasadan farkl\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bir risk unsuru mu var?\u201d sorusu g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011finden piyasada negatif bir hava olu\u015fabilirdi. Bundan dolay\u0131 al\u0131nan karar\u0131 piyasalar g\u00fcven telkin etme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ve para politikas\u0131ndaki sadele\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1451296048\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda Temmuz ay\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan zam nedeniyle g\u00f6zlenen sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda dengelenmesi muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak, y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE beklentilerinde g\u00f6zlenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyir de dikkat \u00e7ekici. Enflasyon beklentilerindeki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve \u015fu ana kadar yap\u0131lan faiz indirimleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin sonlar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve TCMB\u2019nin faizlerdeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc manevra alan\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 h\u00e2le geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin nihai hedefi olan geleneksel tek faiz politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7ildi\u011finde aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n daha etkin h\u00e2le gelece\u011fini ve yap\u0131lan faiz indirimlerinin piyasa yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n daha hissedilir h\u00e2le gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Kararla birlikte yay\u0131nlanan metinde; turizm\u00a0 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki geli\u015fmelerin cari denge \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olumsuz etki yapmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine ve i\u00e7 talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek vermeye devam etmekle beraber bir miktar yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik eklenen ifadeler dikkat \u00e7ekici. \u00a0Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda son aylarda \u00f6nemli y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6steren i\u015flenmemi\u015f \u00a0g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam etmesinin beklendi\u011fi ifade edilmi\u015f. Metinde ayr\u0131ca 15 Temmuz sonras\u0131nda piyasadaki olumsuz etkilerin al\u0131nan tedbirlerle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geri\u00a0 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik at\u0131fta bulunulmu\u015f. TCMB taraf\u0131ndan 9 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczenlemenin bu kapsamda at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir ad\u0131m olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00f6nceki karar metninde yer alan \u201cPiyasalardaki geli\u015fmeler yak\u0131ndan takip edilerek gerekmesi halinde finansal istikrar\u0131 destekleyici likidite tedbirleri al\u0131nmaya devam edilecektir\u201d ifadesinin de \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Karar a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce 2.94\u2019\u00fcn hafif \u00fczerinde olan dolar\/TL kuru, karar sonras\u0131 2.9350\u2019li seviyelere gerilerken; BIST-30 Endeks Kontrat\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6zlenmedi. \u00d6zetle, a\u00e7\u0131klanan karar\u0131 faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (banka, gyo vs.) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor; ancak beklentinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n n\u00f6tr ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gecelik faiz oranlar\u0131: Marjinal fonlama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 8,75\u2019ten y\u00fczde 8,5\u2019e indirilirken, Merkez Bankas\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,25 d\u00fczeyinde sabit tutuldu Bir hafta vadeli repo&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1629],"class_list":["post-46601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-tcmb-faiz-karari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46601\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}