{"id":4644,"date":"2011-09-05T12:10:19","date_gmt":"2011-09-05T09:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4644"},"modified":"2011-09-05T12:20:12","modified_gmt":"2011-09-05T09:20:12","slug":"fed%e2%80%99in-parasal-gevsemesi-mi-avrupa%e2%80%99nin-borc-krizi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed%e2%80%99in-parasal-gevsemesi-mi-avrupa%e2%80%99nin-borc-krizi-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"FED\u2019in parasal gev\u015femesi mi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizi mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">FED\u2019in parasal gev\u015femesi mi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizi mi?<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">ABD\u2019de FED\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal gev\u015femeye gidece\u011fi beklentileri iyice artarken, k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk yine Avrupa. Avrupa\u2019da i\u015fler hi\u00e7 de iyiye gitmiyor, al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler beklenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 do\u011furmuyor. Yunanistan ve \u0130talya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere yeni bir PIIGS krizi ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelere de bula\u015fma ihtimali hi\u00e7 de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2163274885\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Bas bas paralar\u0131\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bayram \u00f6ncesi Jackson Hole\u2019de Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ben Bernanke\u2019nin yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmaya odaklanan piyasalar buradan bekledi\u011fini bulamay\u0131nca g\u00f6zlerini 20 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ba\u015flayacak FED toplant\u0131lar\u0131na \u00e7evirdi. Piyasalarda Bernanke\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal gev\u015femeyi ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131na (basit bir ifadeyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED\u2019in para basmaya devam edece\u011fine) art\u0131k kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tahmin edilemeyen bunun zaman\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc. Bu nedenle ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakamlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan olumsuz verilerin, piyasalara etkisinin olumlu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu durumun sebebi olarak piyasalar\u0131n, gelen her olumsuz verinin parasal geni\u015flemenin boyutunu artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tarihini erkene alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fakat Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 75 bin ki\u015fi art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 beklenen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakam\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmemesi, ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle yeni istihdam yarat\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, FED\u2019in parasal geni\u015flemesinin dahi ekonomiyi d\u00fcze \u00e7\u0131karmakta yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini artt\u0131rd\u0131. Bu endi\u015felerin de hi\u00e7 de haks\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta piyasalar\u0131n olumsuz verilere verdi\u011fi pozitif reaksiyonu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki bu\u00e7uk hafta boyunca s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fine inanm\u0131yoruz. Fakat \u015funu a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde ifade etmek gerekirse Avrupa\u2019da bor\u00e7 sorunu yeniden ayyuka \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken, \u015fuan i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131 ayakta tutan tek geli\u015fme FED\u2019den beklenen parasal geni\u015fleme. Bu nedenle bu konu hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak her t\u00fcrl\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klama piyasalar\u0131n \u00e7ok sert reaksiyon vermesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Avrupa kan a\u011fl\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Avrupa\u2019daki son geli\u015fmelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n al\u0131nan t\u00fcm \u00f6nlemelere ra\u011fmen vergi gelirlerini artt\u0131ramad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefini yakalayamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00f6zlerin yeniden PIIGS olarak an\u0131lan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sorunlu \u00fclkelerine d\u00f6nmesine neden oldu. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta bu \u00fclkelerin hepsinde faizlerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc gitti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Fakat haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fc haricinde ABD\u2019de piyasalar\u0131n olumlu olmas\u0131 bu konunun \u00e7ok fazla g\u00fcndeme gelmesini engelledi. Olu\u015facak ilk karamsar tabloda Avrupa\u2019daki bu sorunlar\u0131n da hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 ve tabloyu daha da karartabilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131. Bunun yan\u0131nda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n AB \u0130stikrar Fonu\u2019na yapaca\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131y\u0131 110 milyar dolardan 221 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu, yaln\u0131z Merkel\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 muhalefetin tepkisinin sertle\u015fmesi ve kendi partisi i\u00e7inden de muhalif seslerin y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 Almanya\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u00fck\u00fc s\u0131rtlayacak siyasi iradeyi ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde devam ettirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yeni kaynak ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011fmas\u0131 durumunda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n keseyi daha fazla a\u00e7ma ihtimalinin art\u0131k \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">\u0130\u00e7 g\u00fcndem: POL\u0130T\u0130KA\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130\u00e7erideki geli\u015fmelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6nemli bir etki yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 beklememekle birlikte takip edilmesi gerekli geli\u015fmeleri \u015fu ba\u015fl\u0131klar alt\u0131nda toplayabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">\u0130srail ile ili\u015fkiler:\u00a0<\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1021013111\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130li\u015fkilerin en alt seviyeye indirilmesi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Akdeniz\u2019de gazetelerde yer alan yorumlarda iddia edildi\u011fi gibi donanmalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirecek bir gerginlik ihtimalini \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle en az\u0131nda Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r gezisine kadar piyasalar \u00fczerinde bu konunun etkisinin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Bununla birlikte Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 bir M\u0131s\u0131r gezisi ve Gazze ziyareti takip edilmeli. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 gerginlik ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olas\u0131, fakat bu da en erken ihtimalle gelecek haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndemi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyine kara operasyonu olabilir:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bayram \u00f6ncesi Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzey b\u00f6lgelerine y\u00f6nelik ba\u015flat\u0131lan hava operasyonu, karadan desteklenebilir ve b\u00f6lgede \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar h\u0131z kazanabilir. Bu durumda ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn yurti\u00e7indeki eylemlerinin say\u0131s\u0131 ve \u015fiddeti de artabilir. Bu risk g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\u0131.\u00a0 Bunun yan\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan milletvekillerinin yemin etmemekte \u0131srar etmesi yeni anayasa \u00f6ncesi tansiyonun yeniden y\u00fckselmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Esat rejimi gidici ama:\u00a0<\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-88984207\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Suriye\u2019de Esat rejimi uluslar aras\u0131 deste\u011fini b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda kaybetmi\u015f durumda. Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar gitgide sertle\u015firken, uluslararas\u0131 deste\u011fi arkas\u0131na alan muhaliflerin eylemlerini artt\u0131rmas\u0131na enden olacakt\u0131r. Bu da Esat rejiminin \u015fiddetin dozunu artt\u0131rmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Artan \u015fiddet uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011finden bu fasit daire er ge\u00e7 Suriye\u2019de y\u00f6netim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini getirecektir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fakat s\u00fcrecin uzamas\u0131 ve her iki tarafta da \u015fiddetin dozunun artmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de s\u00fcrecin i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekebilir. Bu risk \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede piyasalar \u00fczerinde etkili olmasa da orta ve uzun vadede geli\u015fmeleri takip etmeye devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Veri g\u00fcndemi sakin, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u00f6nemli:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bu haftan\u0131n ekonomik takviminde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 listeledik. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar i\u00e7erisinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yer vermedi\u011fimiz FED \u00fcyelerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 bu haftadan itibaren \u00f6nemini artt\u0131racakt\u0131r. Art\u0131k piyasan\u0131n her a\u00e7\u0131klamadan parasal geni\u015flemeye dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 arayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve en sonunda FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin Per\u015fembe ak\u015fam\u0131 TS\u0130 20:00\u2019da yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kanlar:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000\">05 Eyl\u00fcl\u00a0 2011 Pazartesi:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00d6nemli bir veri bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ABD ve Kanada\u2019da spot piyasalar resmi tatil nedeniyle kapal\u0131 olacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000\">06 Eyl\u00fcl\u00a0 2011 Sal\u0131:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 AB Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH (2\u00c7)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13:00 \u2013 Almanya Temmuz Ay\u0131 Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 ISM Hizmet<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20:10 \u2013 ABD FED \u00dcyesi Kocherlakota konu\u015fma yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000\">07 Eyl\u00fcl\u00a0 2011 \u00c7ar\u015famba:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13:00 \u2013 Almanya Temmuz Ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18:15 \u2013 ABD FED \u00dcyesi Evans konu\u015fma yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21:00 \u2013 ABD FED \u201cBej Kitap Raporu\u201d yay\u0131nlanacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 23:00 \u2013 ABD FED \u00dcyesi Williams konu\u015fma yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>08 Eyl\u00fcl\u00a0 2011 Per\u015fembe:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10:00 \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Temmuz Ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:00 \u2013 \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Faiz Oran\u0131 Karar\u0131\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:45 \u2013 AB Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Faiz Oran\u0131 Karar\u0131\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 AB Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trichet konu\u015fma yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Ticaret Dengesi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20:00 \u2013 ABD FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke konu\u015fma yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>09 Eyl\u00fcl\u00a0 2011 Cuma:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Toptan Sat\u0131\u015f Stoklar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">\u00a0\u0130MKB 30 TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130MKB\u2019de \u00f6nceki iki hafta boyunca devam eden s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fle birlikte sonlanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fakat cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015fanan bu tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketin tek ba\u015f\u0131na yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket i\u00e7in yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130MKB 30\u2019un yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini devam ettirebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcre\u00e7te 65,500 \u00fczerinde kapanmaya devam etmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Endeksin bu seviye \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc denemelerinin 69,500\/70,000 civar\u0131na kadar devam edebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in, 65,500 \u00fczerinde bu y\u00f6nde bir hareket ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip 70,000 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 test edilmeden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon bulundurulmas\u0131n\u0131 riskli buluyoruz. Teknik g\u00f6stergelerde endekste bir yorgunluk ve geri \u00e7ekilme iste\u011fi g\u00f6rsek de 65,500 alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece bu beklenti dahilinde pozisyon almay\u0131 do\u011fru bulmuyoruz. 65,500\u2019\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda ise gerilemenin 62,500\u2019e kadar devam etmesi beklenebilir. Olas\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131nda 62,500\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131lacak olursa sat\u0131\u015flar \u00e7ok daha sertle\u015febilir ve yeni bir ay\u0131 pazar\u0131 ba\u015flayabilir. Bu nedenle 62,500 alt\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli tepkiler i\u00e7in dahi olsa yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru bulmuyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">S\u00f6ylediklerimizi k\u0131saca \u00f6zetleyecek olursak. 65,500 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru bulmuyoruz. Sadece endeksin 70,000 direncini test etmesi ve burada zorlanmas\u0131 durumunda 70,750\u2019de stop loss yapmak kayd\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. 65,500 alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn yeniden bozulmas\u0131 muhtemel, bu nedenle 65,500 alt\u0131nda yeniden 66,500\u2019\u00fcn ge\u00e7ilmesi durumunda stop loss yapmak kayd\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. 62,500 alt\u0131 tam anlam\u0131yla bir ay\u0131 pazar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir, dikkatli olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">USD\/TL TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Yurti\u00e7i piyasalar bayram tatili nedeniyle kapal\u0131 iken Londra\u2019da ge\u00e7en s\u0131\u011f i\u015flemlerde Dolar\/TL kuru 1,71 civar\u0131na kadar geriledi. Haziranda ba\u015flayan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu seviyelerin destek olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u0130lerleyen g\u00fcnlerde 1,71\/1,72 civar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede en \u00f6nemli destek olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde ise 1,78\/1,80 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir karga\u015fa ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kurun bu seviyelerin \u00fczerinde hareket etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle \u00f6nceki iki hafta da dile getirdi\u011fimiz gibi kurda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyoruz. Kurun \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede olmasa da birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k vadede yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz trend deste\u011fini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu durumda ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde 1,65\/1,70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Fakat \u015fuan i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede 1,72-1,78 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki hareketin bir s\u00fcre daha devam etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flemlerde bu band i\u00e7inde al\u0131m sat\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131 bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in iyi bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman';font-size: small\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><br \/>\n<\/span><strong><strong><span style=\"color: maroon;font-family: 'Times New Roman'\">Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><strong><span style=\"color: maroon;font-family: Arial\"><br \/>\n<\/span><strong><strong><span style=\"color: maroon;font-family: 'Times New Roman'\">T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><br \/>\n<\/span><strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman'\">Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><br \/>\nFax<\/span><strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman'\">: 0212 330 0 369<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><br \/>\n<\/span><strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman'\"><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\" title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.t<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Arial\" title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\">r<\/span><span style=\"color: black;font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\" title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial\" title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\"><strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman'\" title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\"><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nblocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\">udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: red;font-size: x-small\">UYARI: <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">manl\u0131<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">g<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda de<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">g<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">ildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">manl\u0131<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">g<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim <\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">irketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fc<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">teri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">manl\u0131<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">g<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">\u0131 s\u00f6zle<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">mesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n ki<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">isel g\u00f6r\u00fc<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">lerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">s<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">ler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar do<\/span><span style=\"font-family: TTE1670210t00;font-size: x-small\">g<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times-Italic;font-size: x-small\">urmayabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FED\u2019in parasal gev\u015femesi mi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizi mi? ABD\u2019de FED\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal gev\u015femeye gidece\u011fi beklentileri iyice artarken, k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk yine Avrupa.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}